Tasman Low

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 08/10/2004 18:54

Yes, BOP tends to get clobbered in these northerly situations.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 08/10/2004 21:21

NZstorm wrote:Yes, BOP tends to get clobbered in these northerly situations.

...immmm. things are looking interesting up there Aaron and Steven.
Reports on the TV3 news of thunderstorms over central to west of the NI roday.
Lows like this CAN produce thunderstorms in Canterbury.
The famous Ruapuna tornado that Bob missed occured in slack low pressure over the country in a situation similar to what we are getting at the moment but mind you it was in March where the weather was a bit warmer

JohnGaul
NZTS

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 08/10/2004 23:02

Damn it! NO thunder today!!

Waikato's outlook a 1 on John's scale for Saturday

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 09/10/2004 00:34

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Damn it! NO thunder today!!

Waikato's outlook a 1 on John's scale for Saturday

A 1

you are lucky, there's not much chance of any readings on the NZTS scale for here tomorrow or even Sunday or Monday or tuesday or wednesday or thurs or .....

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 09/10/2004 08:46

Waikato's outlook a 1 on John's scale for Saturday

Must be higher than 1 for today Foggy.

Lows like this CAN produce thunderstorms in Canterbury.

This situation is a 'classic thunderstorm situation' for the inland South island in high summer. The NE takes moisture inland and because the air is advecting in from the north, temperatures can get high. But still a bit early in the year. If there was not so much high cloud over inland Otago this morning (on satellite picture) I would have gone for Isolated afternoon Thunderstorms in Otago. But still, I am signaling a 1 for Central Otago for today.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/10/2004 09:33

there was some good beefy showers around the sotuh manukau harbour area yesterday

today:
foggy start, but there is blue skies above (as I was up on a hill top at 700ft, and it was above the fog , in a cowshed, earlier on)

so, could be a good day for CB's today if the fog burns off in time

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 09/10/2004 10:29

8/8 stratus here now with a steady drizzle.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/10/2004 10:43

yeah, does not look promising for cb's at all now

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 09/10/2004 10:54

I suspect this drizzle is associated with a low level weak warm front that has formed ahead of the next trough. Shame as the upper air is unstable again today.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 09/10/2004 11:21

SHITHOLE CLIMATE

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Sat 09/10/2004 11:39

We have an 11C Dewpoint which is the highest so far this season. Temp is 12C at the airport and 13.4C at Jeffs station in Hilmorton (only 1.6C below Auckland's current temp! our dewpoints are the same). I saw some blue sky not long ago and this low cloud has lifted, still it is there though. The sun is now occasionally popping through which is good but it hasn't got anywhere yet. I wish this cloud would burn off then we might see some Cu at the least! I hope for more situations like this in summer!

Yes, inland Otago would be good if this low cloud burned off, here and there for that matter.

That storm of the Ruapuna tornado had nice big blue skies by the looks of things in the morning which would've helped convection. I can tell this from Bob's photo's, pitty it an't like that today, but I doubt any tornadoes if anything happened today.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/10/2004 11:40

12.4oC DP here and 13.9 oC temperature (no sun yet)

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Sat 09/10/2004 11:43

Above dewpoints in my post above based on the airports 11am obs. That's better!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 09/10/2004 12:05

We're getting some good ground heating at the moment, hope something interesting will happen later as the front moves in from the NNW.

Partly cloudy with cumulus towering 18c, easterly breeze

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/10/2004 12:10

i think the next low/front will roll over the top of us a bit....
we will get the edge
or maybe as it gets closer it will move a bit more SE
at the moment its moving ESE ish

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/10/2004 12:43

just had a bit of a wind shift to the NNW here now,.....
interesting...
clearing more now too, and warmer...
so there was a weak warm front that developed over us, yes again

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Sat 09/10/2004 13:04

That stratus has cleared here now, suns out between lots of Cu.. some interesting looking buildups 16 C and DP almost 14

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 09/10/2004 13:48

Showers from Cu have developed around Auckland over the past 40mins but the air looks less unstable today .
Need alot more sunshine and warmth this afternoon for anything interesting.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 09/10/2004 14:30

Supposed to be rain and drizzle according to MetService forecast - we had some early morning drizzle, but nothing more. 1PM radar shows some rain in the Alps, but nowhere else in Canterbury. In fact the sun is breaking through the low cloud on occasion here in central Chch.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 09/10/2004 15:15

The upper air over Auckland has warmed up considerably since last nights sounding. At 1200Z the 500mb temperature was -23, but the 0000Z temp is -18C. Thats a big 5C warming, enough to turn the upper air into stable territory.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sat 09/10/2004 17:00

Michael wrote: NEVER ENDING WINER THAT REPEATS CONTINUALLY

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Sat 09/10/2004 17:33

You guys up there could have some heavy rain or a thunderstorm tonight as the upper air gets colder. I think that warming of the air up above will be short lived but it's a bugger it had to come through during the middel of the day! Storms will come off the sea if they form I guess, just hope they're strong enough to sustain themselves over the land if they do make landfall.

Below attachment showing upper warmer air over Auckland.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/10/2004 19:04

some good CB's now just south of the bombay hills...

Manukau heads obs · Sat 09/10/2004 19:34

the front that has moved onto northland is not very well organised/active
it looks good on the sat image, but its all show....rain radar does not show all that much rain....its a bit of a fizzer at this stage
(just lots of altocumulus/stratus, etc)

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 09/10/2004 19:47

....its a bit of a fizzer at this stage

Yes. That chart posted by Aaron nicely illustrates the upper ridge which has killed off convection/front today.