NZ Weather Forum

Here's a 300km plot of all strikes since midnight.

Nothing very close recorded here. There were a couple of strikes off BP just before 5am about 100km away.

If the strike in Pegasus Bay was very weak then it might have been recorded further away. Without an exact time there's no way of knowing for sure.

Good report Aaron on your funnel cloud spotting and it should be a well worth read on the NZTS web-site.
I'll comment more later
I did notice interesting cloud with the weather here yesterday but didn't expect anything so kept low key. I heard no sferics whatsoever.
Today's cloud look more stimulating especially with bits of sunshine now and then to stimulate grow but I think the barometer may be against us : but (
Wait and see

JohnGaul
NZTS

PS> By the way I still have a 2 following on from yesterday too for today with a 4 looking at the Auckland/upper NI area


JohnGaul
NZTS

Thanks Steven Re the lightning map. The Cu congestis must've grown slightly larger to Cb when it hit the coast (water) due to warmer ocean temps then the lands.

Yes John, exactly what I was thinking. Only thing against us is the barometer which I believe is rising slowly or is steady and is at 1014, not the best. Temps low down aren't that great either at 10 but then again the upper air is very cold at -30 (500mb) I think. There's quite a variation between the Wellington and Invercargill soundings in their upper temps so I'm not totally sure, I'll go with the Invercargill one and subtract two or three degrees which leaves us with -30. That sun will have to get in and temps rise a but otherwise nothing today.

I had some good rain about an hour ago though as big Cu (maybe at a congestus state passed over). I'd imagine clouds have got to Cu congestus out there today around Canterbury. Cb possibly looks to be on the coast in south Canterbury although no strikes recorded.

Well the sun is out and mild 18c with light WNW

Beaut of a day here in west auckland. Bugger all wind, sunshine and a few bubbly Cu congestus and humilus (sp?). Looks like some more bigger buildups towards swanson/helensville way.

outdoor temp around 19degC with a pressure drop of around 1hPa per hour, DP 7degC (supposedly) and cloud base around 1500m. RH is quite low at around 50%.

Metservice are predicting a fine day with NW (no mention of any late in the day showers which could be quite possible the way things are going).

I'm gunna keep my eye out for a FC later on today, with the heating this arvo and unstable upper, ya never know what could happen.

Things could look good for 2moro?

Another Convergence has developed over us from 1pm.
Wind back to the NE.
I heard a roar to the NE. Sounded like hail on roofs but whether or not is was I don't know.
Anyway, a hail shower then and another at 1:45pm but now the rain has settled in with the occasion hail from the convergence. Quite steady now.
NE wind quite cold. Unusual to hear and see hail on my french doors

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Another Convergence has developed over us from 1pm.
Wind back to the NE.
I heard a roar to the NE. Sounded like hail on roofs but whether or not is was I don't know.
Anyway, a hail shower then and another at 1:45pm but now the rain has settled in with the occasion hail from the convergence. Quite steady now.
NE wind quite cold. Unusual to hear and see hail on my french doors

JohnGaul
NZTS

No rain/hail here in were I am in CHC, was sunny only just clouded over!

Could see the line of convergence cloud from the house (it was a S'ly here) so I drove over to Marshs Road and took this panorama at about 2pm. It's a bit distorted because I was tilting the camera up to get the cloud tops.

By the time I decided to turn the camera and take portrait images low level cloud had rolled in

[ still logged in as admin but you'll know who that is anyway ]

No hail here but the rain sure has picked up, been raining for the past half hour or so but is quite heavy now. No roar's or thunder to report.

Great pan Steven G! You can see that core of rain that's over me now. Funny to think it's not raining over your way (possibly sunny at times?) and it's doom and gloom over here with heavy rain.

Cu looks as if it could get to 3500m today near the Auckland area. When and if that cold air out to the west arrives that'll be when things happen I suspect. If there's an increase in temp or dewpoint things could destablise a bit more and clouds grow a bit higher but I don't think any storms until that upper cold air arrives. FC's always a possiblity though!! I hope you get one C-nimbus. It's a pitty there's no Skew-t for Chch put up on the various Skew-t sites. I understand they release a ballon at Rakaia, is that right? I can't figure out all those numbers on the metservice website.

What are your thought's Steven W for Auckland and the surrounding area? I think you said slight chance tonight and tomorrow looks to have more potential and I agree.

Nice pan there Stephen (Admin)
Still raining and cold here only 11C and 5.5 mm in the rain-gauge since 1pm.
Ne hanging in here, light to moderate and looks like more rain coming from this convergence. Not good enough for thunder, unfortunately
No more hail, well not since when it first came onto rain.
JohnGaul
NZTS

Thanks, guys. It was mostly sunny out here and where I took the photo from but only 11C and with a cold wind.

Now cloudy here, 10C and still dry with a moderate wind from the South.

That system to the west of the NI is certainly taking it's time moving east !!!

Steven Graham wrote:
That system to the west of the NI is certainly taking it's time moving east !!!

Yeah, I noticed that. Our friends in Auckland will probably enjoying a nice day with a picnic scenario as what Michael invisidged
I see a Triangle over around near the Hanmer area on the static lightning chart??? What does that mena?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Steven Graham wrote:Thanks, guys. It was mostly sunny out here and where I took the photo from but only 11C and with a cold wind.

Now cloudy here, 10C and still dry with a moderate wind from the South.

That system to the west of the NI is certainly taking it's time moving east !!!

Changed around to NE here about 1:30pm but stayed dry until about 2:50 when there was a light shower with small hail with wind from the NE.
I have not had enough rain to tip the gauge yet (0.2mm) but John has had 5.5mm since 1pm. Light rain now with 8.4C, wind has dropped. It was more pleasant with the southerly and about 13C at about 1pm

If a strike occurs up to 60 seconds before the time shown on the image, it's displayed with one of the "Recent" symbols instead of a simple dot. In this case it means it was probably a positive CG.

It's more use on the realtime display on the PC so that when it beeps to let me know there's a new strike, I can easily see where it is.

There was another one in almost the same place about 2 minutes later !

Distant CBs can now be seen to the NW up towards Taranaki and down towards Masterton on the other side of the Tararua's.

some small scale heavy showers over west auckland at the mo, and what looks like a fairly active line of showers/possible Cb's to the west.

No F/C today, but always live in hope

Travelling from Chch to Akaroa this morning, while there was much shower activity (solid but not heavy), I noticed a very dark cloud to the south (over southern end of Lake Ellesmere) between about 9-9.30AM , which looked (when I could see the tops) to be a cumulonimbus. I couldn't see any lightning, but it looked dark enough to maybe produce heavy hail. Stayed mostly cloudy on the peninsula for the rest of the day with brief light showers.
Reports of snow showers in Queenstown and Wanaka today, but BP hilltops covered by cloud.

Yes, that would've been Cb Ben. I could see a few in that area on the weatherzone sat pics this morning. But, no lightning from them from what I can tell by both detectors. heavy rain and hail would've happened. A FC, who know's???

From what I can tell tomorrow the pressure would have to be under 1010 hpa (1015 hpa at the most) and the temp get up to around 15-17 at the minimum for anything to happen. Baro is forecast to be higher though. Moisture should follow the temp up and be ok as it's going to be ENE tomorrow. If this pulls together there's a possibility of a FC to, as the winds in the atmosphere will be at opposits to each other. 1000mb to 600mb easterly quater winds and then upwards westerly quarter. Winds will be lite throughout the atmosphere from 1000mb to 300mb not going above 30 knots. Winds at the surface should be quite lite. If southerly winds are present aswell that's help, to get a convergence going.

Tuesday looks a bit better but no FC's

At the moment I'm basing the fact that FC are happening due to winds in the atmosphere (in terms of height) going in opposit directions to each other.With the FC yesterday, conditions were like that. The cloud above us was definately cork-screwing. Also, local wind dynamics as Steven W has explained (or is it the local winds alone that's producing them?). Any help appreciated.

I would like to think that FC are possible with any thunderstorm / big cumulus congestus activity.

Tomorrow looks good from the Auckland / Waikato through to Taranaki and the Hawkes Bay. Afternoon chases should be good! Well, those places have the most potential anyway.

Don't know if I should start a new thread for this week or just continue here?

Lots of big cumulus outside! But, that's all for the moment.

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Lots of big cumulus outside!

I'd be seriously worried about the level of instability in your house if they were inside!

Some heavy showers (of rain) overnight around Akaroa, but only 1 light shower this morning. Still cold, but not enough for snow on the hills.

HAHA

Right, the report is up. Go to http://nzts.escootersnz.com and you know the rest!

There's a few more little things I might put up but it's pretty much all there.

Enjoy!

Excellent report, Aaron with great pics