NZ Weather Forum

Sorry Chaps
The outlook for storms here dosen't look very good, at the moment, well for the rest of spring.
Looks like boring anticyclonic conditions coming up, looking at a few models this evening, meaning settled weather...even fine days will have cloud not making it not very nice, ie NE intrusion
...as bad as Michael's SW days in Auckland
I think Novemeber will be anticyclonic, hopefully this will bring a spell of disturbed SW in December, with thunder for Canterbury



JohnGaul
NZTS

What about proper anticyclones not the 1015 cells that race to the north

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Sorry Chaps
The outlook for storms here dosen't look very good, at the moment, well for the rest of spring.
Looks like boring anticyclonic conditions coming up, looking at a few models this evening, meaning settled weather...even fine days will have cloud not making it not very nice, ie NE intrusion
...as bad as Michael's SW days in Auckland
I think Novemeber will be anticyclonic, hopefully this will bring a spell of disturbed SW in December, with thunder for Canterbury



JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael wrote:What about proper anticyclones not the 1015 cells that race to the north

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:

EMCWF have a 1030+ possibly moving onto NZ later next week regrettably
These type of anticyclones are not on, especially at this time of year when we want active cold fronts too move in from the south Tasman in a disturbed SW flow.
Australia, you can keep your anticyclones and DON'T send them East our way Hint- Ne is a better direction for highs to follow to allow the dirturbed SW to continue, but don't allow the pressures to rise to quickly and also make sure the fronts are orgsanised to come over the Canterbury region about late afternoon to allow for the ground heating/sea breeze to take effect

JohnGaul
NZTS

End of November 2002 brought thunderstorms in the middel of a big high.

http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz ... d30112.txt

You recorded some of these storms John. Yes storms don't have as good a chance with highs about but I wouldn't rule it out. I think that's too far ahead to be looking, we'll or someone will get storms at some point. Maybe this is just my optimisim speaking?

Clearly you live in the wrong place for thunderstorms.
I'd suggest you give up on wishing for them and just wait until one happens and then you will have a nice surprise.
No one predicts the storms that happen here anyway so there is really no sense in groaning all the time.

dogmelon wrote:Clearly you live in the wrong place for thunderstorms.
I'd suggest you give up on wishing for them and just wait until one happens and then you will have a nice surprise.
No one predicts the storms that happen here anyway so there is really no sense in groaning all the time.

I'd have to dissagree with you dogmelon. We are very fortunate on this forum to have (at our fingertips) the talents of people like NZStorm, TonyT, Tich, Aaron etc etc, and i think you'll find that these guys generally get it right.

And anyway, thats the reason for having a forum like this is that you can exchange ideas and theories of weather patterns, and (more importantly) for complete novices like myself its a chance to learn the craft of weather prediction.

I don't think I'm that good (thanks c-nimbus! ). But as my other thread indicates, storms this weekend. There's to many variables at the moment though for my brain to know where or when, west coast of the SI looks good though as it allways does for tomorrow. One up and new comer who I think will do well is lenticlasher

If I had to say anything I'd say tomorrow, mid to late in the day for Canterbury but not to late. Upper 500 at -27 / -28 or there abouts. Sunday even better at -30!! But things might've cooled down to much at ground level for any convection if the southerly is persistant on Sunday.

I'm not sure if your directing your comment at John or me? If anything John would probably groan more due to him being older than me, Sorry John..

Tomorrow's an interesting one. I dont really fancy much of a SW change nor much of a NE either, and its also possible there may be too much mid and low level cloud to allow much convection. But, it looks like it could be really unstable - might be one of those days when the CUs start bubbling up even though nothing else looks promising. LAPs has total totals in the high 50s over the central SI tomorrow, which is very good for deep convective potential, but GFS has only moderate CAPE values which is not so good. So, its not a dead cert for a storm tomorrow, but it should be interesting to watch, wait and see.

Sunday will be no good I suspect, too much southerly flow.

A Thunderstorm risk over the SouthIsand tomorrow but Forget Sunday as the Southerly will be in.

Thunderstorm risk moves to the NorthIsland Sunday.

TonyT wrote:Tomorrow's an interesting one. I dont really fancy much of a SW change nor much of a NE either, and its also possible there may be too much mid and low level cloud to allow much convection. But, it looks like it could be really unstable - might be one of those days when the CUs start bubbling up even though nothing else looks promising. LAPs has total totals in the high 50s over the central SI tomorrow, which is very good for deep convective potential, but GFS has only moderate CAPE values which is not so good. So, its not a dead cert for a storm tomorrow, but it should be interesting to watch, wait and see.

Sunday will be no good I suspect, too much southerly flow.

Yes, Tony, I am giving a 2for tomorrow on my scale.
If the sky clears to allow for sunshine, I may increase but at the moment looks likely there will be some factor to 'stuff things up"



JohnGaul
NZTS