Labour weekend - not looking good as usual

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Willoughby
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Labour weekend - not looking good as usual

Unread post by Willoughby »

A warm front will bring some rain to NI today with most falling on Sunday Thundery falls possible north of Auckland (according to MS). Overcast conditions will trap cool morning air as it usually does here in a cloudy, light northerly :(

Patchy rain likely for the final, not much wind though! :shock:
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the warm front fizzled against the high
and the cold front is very disorganised
so the forecast for rain was wrong...the barometer is still high
but the NE wind has increased now..
so a new more organised cold fron might fire up yet
(met service are not very good at weather from the north...you need to add 12 hours to the forcast time for rain for th auckland/waikato area (northland has had a few lines of showers go through though overnight)
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Unread post by Willoughby »

yeah they have got it wrong, with just showers expected tonight by GFS, then scattered rain tomorrow. The satellite picture is just showing high cloud all over NZ with some thunderstorm activity 100km north of Cape Reinga and in the northern tasman. It's also going to be pretty hot tomorrow on NI east coast... Hastings forecast to 27c :shock: (by MetService)

Currently, Mostly cloudy, light northerly, 19c in the city.
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Unread post by tich »

I'm off to Arthurs Pass tomorrow, so luckily the heavy rain warnings are for northern areas, not the South Island West Coast. Colder air is forecast to spread over South Island - freezing levels expected to drop to 1000m in the south tomorrow, but snow isn't likely at this stage at Arthurs. (but who knows - things could easily change)
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Lots of strikes under that big bright cloud in the tasman this morning!


I noticed MetService took 9 degrees off their forecast for Hastings, and 17 for Kaikoura :shock: :lol:
It just shows that forecasting the NW'er is very hard
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Unread post by tich »

Colder air is forecast to spread over South Island - freezing levels expected to drop to 1000m in the south tomorrow
Make that 800m now, with snow to 500m down there. Only partly cloudy with high cloud in Chch this morning
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

15.8 oc DP here :)
could be thunder later today
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

2100 lightning strikes so far today!! thats got to be some sort of record!! All inbetween new plymouth and nelson!

Dew point here already st 10C with a little high cloud and easterlys! and 14C
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i was just looking at your java map:
http://www.templeton.gen.nz/weather/StormVue.html

and see those
i now have java going in fire fox
i had to download and reinstall sun java
(thanks to others who helped me with that)


also, i just found the buttons to zoom and to show the loop of the last 60 minutes of strikes....thats cool!
i am really impressed with the nexstorm software
the author of lightning 2000 who had some correspondence with absoultly slammed it
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the strike locations certainly match the wellington rain radar ok, so thats real good!
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Unread post by ricky »

mine were ranging too far out.. but I've fixed that now :)
was adjusting things out for the storm way out in the tasman last night before i went to bed.. and got a bit carried away further SW lol.. the replay of today looks amazing
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i was wondering why you did not have strikes, in that same area, LOL

looks like cb's heading straight for us ricky!
DP now 16oC here :)
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Unread post by spwill »

In Dunedin, High cloud , calm and cool here. Can see a little blue sky :D

Thundery convective build ups look a chance across NZ today.
Hope that cold Southerly stays away from here until later in the day.
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Unread post by Thunder »

At the moment things are looking good. John, do we have a convective outlook?

18 C and the dewpoint is at 11 C with a light NE breeze. I just wonder how thick the lower level moisture is though, for e.g. how far up do the winds back around to the WNW? Apart from that I'm happy. Sunny outside wiht high cloud in places, but sunny! Very nice.

Upper air isn't as cold as I'd like though, -18 500mb
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Unread post by Andy »

7/8 cloud with some misty drizzel from the north at times, mild with temps in the mid teens.

Looks to be some clearance to the south west. :)
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:At the moment things are looking good. John, do we have a convective outlook?
Nothing at the moment, Im sad to day :(

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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Nothing at the moment, Im sad to day :(

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Come on john! We have the highest Dew point we have had in ages! pressure of around 998hp and with a NE and 22C, and to add clear skies! :) :)

I thought you would have thought this was good conditions for something to happen today!!!
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Ive just come in from Rolleston and it is Southerly there there but quite mild.
Cloudy there and the sky just looks dead, especially to the south
Now clouded over here with a temp of 22.5c
Next WE looks better.
SW just come through here :(

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Unread post by TonyT »

03 Stormchaser wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Nothing at the moment, Im sad to day :(

JohnGaul
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Come on john! We have the highest Dew point we have had in ages! pressure of around 998hp and with a NE and 22C, and to add clear skies! :) :)

I thought you would have thought this was good conditions for something to happen today!!!
If the atmosphere is not unstable then it doesnt matter how many potential trigger conditions there are - you could get all the people in New Zealand to stand in a field and blow upwards while farting at the same time and you still wouldn't make a cloud (except one of methane). If I can offer a word of advice, you stormchaser guys need to be thinking stability all the time, rather than worrying about temperatures and wind directions. Those factors only come into play once you have an unstable atmosphere to support a convective cloud.

If I can use an example, think of a marble and a perfectly round, semi-spherical pudding basin. Put the marble inside the pudding basin and no matter where you start it rolling from, or what direction you nudge it in, it will always end up stopped in the bottom of the pudding basin. Thats what a stable atmosphere does to any convection - it damps it out. Now, turn the pudding basin upside down and try to balance the marble on the top - if you are very lucky you might just get it to balance, but the slightest movement or breath of wind on it will send it rolling down the side of the pudding basin to end up goodness knows where. That is an unstable atmosphere - a little push is all it needs to accelerate and end up somewhere unpredictable, and convection just keeps spiralling upwards (until it meets a stable layer).

To extend the analogy, you might find it more useful to keep looking out for the shape of the pudding basin in the sky today, than worry whethere the marble will balance on the top.

:)
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

TonyT wrote: If the atmosphere is not unstable then it doesnt matter how many potential trigger conditions there are - you could get all the people in New Zealand to stand in a field and blow upwards while farting at the same time and you still wouldn't make a cloud (except one of methane). If I can offer a word of advice, you stormchaser guys need to be thinking stability all the time, rather than worrying about temperatures and wind directions. Those factors only come into play once you have an unstable atmosphere to support a convective cloud.

If I can use an example, think of a marble and a perfectly round, semi-spherical pudding basin. Put the marble inside the pudding basin and no matter where you start it rolling from, or what direction you nudge it in, it will always end up stopped in the bottom of the pudding basin. Thats what a stable atmosphere does to any convection - it damps it out. Now, turn the pudding basin upside down and try to balance the marble on the top - if you are very lucky you might just get it to balance, but the slightest movement or breath of wind on it will send it rolling down the side of the pudding basin to end up goodness knows where. That is an unstable atmosphere - a little push is all it needs to accelerate and end up somewhere unpredictable, and convection just keeps spiralling upwards (until it meets a stable layer).

To extend the analogy, you might find it more useful to keep looking out for the shape of the pudding basin in the sky today, than worry whethere the marble will balance on the top.

:)
Still, I wouldnt be ruling out something later on this evening!
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Unread post by TonyT »

03 Stormchaser wrote:Still, I wouldnt be ruling out something later on this evening!
Total totals are around 45, which makes convection possible but probably not unstable enough to support the deep convection needed for active thundery CBs. Early afternoon in high summer perhaps, but late evening in October, probably not. Should be some showers though.
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Unread post by spwill »

With a rather complex Low crossing NZ there is always the chance of some unstable air moving across. Parts of the NZ have had Storms today.
Here in DUNEDIN it has stayed overcaste all day and although quite warm surface heating by the sun is needed for good convetion . Some Cu have developed over the Western hills but the medium level cloud is showing fairly stable conditions.
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Unread post by dogmelon »

Trying to forecast thunderstorms here is like banging your head on a brick wall to make your headache go away, they never happen. You can count the amount of thunderstorms here per year on one hand and still have fingers to spare.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

You can count the amount of thunderstorms here per year on one hand and still have fingers to spare.
and you are from Canty...
eveyone else in NZ already knows this, LOL
but, its that when canty does get one, then its exciting!

all you canty people should be all happy today, you won the NPC !!
(thunderstorm or no thunderstorms, you should be happy, LOL )
:) :D :shock: 8)
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Unread post by dogmelon »

I spose a lack-o-storms is why a fair amount on here are from ch.
When i lived in Waikato no one cared when a storm happened no doubt cos they happened somewhat more frequently. Cricket is better.
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