Low bearing down
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Low bearing down
Hi
With this low bearing down on us I say possible storms for Canterbury tomorrow afternoon. A trough looks to be forming on the edge of mid/south Canterbury to move up the plains in the afternoon although it's not that well defined. The thing I'm worried about is high and mid level cloud once again which won't help things.
Auckland / Waikato looks good on Friday afternoon to, and high and mid level cloud doesn't look to be of much of a problem as it does in Canterbury. No good for storms in Canterbury on Saturday but I'm not sure about up north for Saturday. What are your thoughts Steven W (for this low in general aswell?).
Yes I've been looking at the tot tot charts )) and I see 50 over the plains and quite a bit of the North Island on Friday, LAPS and GASP pretty much agree there (although the plots are 1pm for LAPS and 1am for GASP) so thats good.
An upper pool of cold air looks to be coming over Canterbury in the afternoon associated with the low of around -20 which isn't the best but it's colder than the upper air has been recently.
CAPE isn't showing much but there's some there (20/30?). I'm noticing that the GFS models seems to under predict temps here in Canterbury so maybe that might have something to do with it?
I can't see any NE winds on the models before the trough (more NNW is what they say) so I'm not sure there. Tony, I know you mentioned that the models aren't too good with our NE so what are your thoughts?
Now be gentle but please give my inexperianced mind different thoughts on tomorrow which would be much appreciated!
With this low bearing down on us I say possible storms for Canterbury tomorrow afternoon. A trough looks to be forming on the edge of mid/south Canterbury to move up the plains in the afternoon although it's not that well defined. The thing I'm worried about is high and mid level cloud once again which won't help things.
Auckland / Waikato looks good on Friday afternoon to, and high and mid level cloud doesn't look to be of much of a problem as it does in Canterbury. No good for storms in Canterbury on Saturday but I'm not sure about up north for Saturday. What are your thoughts Steven W (for this low in general aswell?).
Yes I've been looking at the tot tot charts )) and I see 50 over the plains and quite a bit of the North Island on Friday, LAPS and GASP pretty much agree there (although the plots are 1pm for LAPS and 1am for GASP) so thats good.
An upper pool of cold air looks to be coming over Canterbury in the afternoon associated with the low of around -20 which isn't the best but it's colder than the upper air has been recently.
CAPE isn't showing much but there's some there (20/30?). I'm noticing that the GFS models seems to under predict temps here in Canterbury so maybe that might have something to do with it?
I can't see any NE winds on the models before the trough (more NNW is what they say) so I'm not sure there. Tony, I know you mentioned that the models aren't too good with our NE so what are your thoughts?
Now be gentle but please give my inexperianced mind different thoughts on tomorrow which would be much appreciated!
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Yes Ben, always a good sign!
The trough has become more defined now on the latest model run so thats good. Most things are pretty much the same still except there's not as much moisture at 300mb now, still it's the same for the rest. It'll be easier to look at sat pics tomorrow anyway. I notice pseudo NE coming in from the ESE to meet up with the SSW also so that's good.
And sorry, CAPE looks more like 5/7 for Cant, not the best but that's a model speaking.
Convective outlook John?
The trough has become more defined now on the latest model run so thats good. Most things are pretty much the same still except there's not as much moisture at 300mb now, still it's the same for the rest. It'll be easier to look at sat pics tomorrow anyway. I notice pseudo NE coming in from the ESE to meet up with the SSW also so that's good.
And sorry, CAPE looks more like 5/7 for Cant, not the best but that's a model speaking.
Convective outlook John?
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I think you are well onto it Aaron, you seem to have looked at most of the useful predictors.
None of the models will predict a lee-trough NE for Canterbury - they dont have the resolution. So, look for lightish northerly quarter winds (say <10 knots at the surface) and you can be pretty sure we will in fact be getting NE.
However, I agree that middle level cloud might be the dampener tomorrow - perhaps too much to allow any decent convection to get going before the rain cloud associated with the trough arrives.
None of the models will predict a lee-trough NE for Canterbury - they dont have the resolution. So, look for lightish northerly quarter winds (say <10 knots at the surface) and you can be pretty sure we will in fact be getting NE.
However, I agree that middle level cloud might be the dampener tomorrow - perhaps too much to allow any decent convection to get going before the rain cloud associated with the trough arrives.
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Hi Aaron,Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:
Convective outlook John?
Judging by the consequences I have given tomorrow (and Saturday interestingly enough at the moment) a 2 but that could change judging how things will eventuate.
Cloud cover will probably be the main hindrance.
At the moment I think that any thundery outbreak that may occur, will be nothing much to get really exited about but it could be a good tester for Steven Graham's lightning detector.
Anyway, here's to the first possible thunderstorm for Canterbury this season
JohnGaul
NZTS
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Dogmelon, you must be new to weather observation. Now that you are a member of this forum you have the opportunity to learn.There is a season?
Thunder risk over the North Island tomorrow will be in that front and perhaps Isolated cb/storms in behind it ahead of Saturdays SW change.
Dewpoints should lift overnight, maybe as high as 18C tomorrow.
As for the South island, I can't add any thing further as to whats already been predicted. Chance of cb's developing east of the alps in the afternoon/evening as the low passes through.
As for Saturday, I think Gisborne is the region mostly likely to catch some thunder.
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To everything - turn, turn, turndogmelon wrote:There is a season?
There is a season - turn, turn, turn
And a time for every purpose under heaven
A time to watch clouds, a time to eat snow
A time to measure rain, and tell all of us
A time to see halos, a time to hear thunder
A time for cirrus, alto-cu, and cumulonimbus
To everything - turn, turn, turn
There is a season - turn, turn, turn
And a time for every purpose under heaven
Feel free to add more verses...
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Some would say there'sdogmelon wrote:There is a season?
"4 Seasons in One Day"
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
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Well I love a rainy night
I love to hear the thunder
Watch the lightning
When it lights up the sky
You know it makes me feel good
Well I love a rainy night
It's such a beautiful sight
I love to feel the rain
On my face
To taste the rain on my lips
In the moonlight shadow
Showers wash
All my cares away
I wake up to a sunny day
'Cause I love a rainy night
Yes I love a rainy night
Well I love a rainy night
I love to hear the thunder
Watch the lightning
When it lights up the sky
You know it makes me feel good
Well I love a rainy night
It's such a beautiful sight
I love to feel the rain
On my face
To taste the rain on my lips
In the moonlight shadow
Showers wash
All my cares away
I wake up to a sunny day
'Cause I love a rainy night
Yes I love a rainy night
Well I love a rainy night
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its overcast here this morning which isnt a good start to the day.
11C And SW
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Those are nice figures Spwill! Hope you guys get something.
Here I just don't know, winds are variable to calm at the moment, I think it might be tending ENE here at the moment as I see clouds outside moving very slowly. Temp is rising slightly but I think that's due to the calm. We might get a sunny spell or two in the afternoon before the southerly arrives which I think will be towards 5pm or a bit later now. But other than that I'm not sure.
Here I just don't know, winds are variable to calm at the moment, I think it might be tending ENE here at the moment as I see clouds outside moving very slowly. Temp is rising slightly but I think that's due to the calm. We might get a sunny spell or two in the afternoon before the southerly arrives which I think will be towards 5pm or a bit later now. But other than that I'm not sure.
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It's detecting nothing in Waikato, esp. Hamilton
Last edited by Willoughby on Fri 29/10/2004 15:54, edited 1 time in total.