The sun has come through at times this afternoon, and Jeffsweather station says it's about 16C with a NE wind. No mention of thunder in latest Canterbury forecast, though some heavy rain is forecast. (no rain in central Chch since early afternoon)We might get a sunny spell or two in the afternoon before the southerly arrives which I think will be towards 5pm or a bit later now. But other than that I'm not sure.
Low bearing down
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http://www.portunus.net.nz/weather/boltek600.png
shows were all the strikes were
even one near pokeno...
shows were all the strikes were
even one near pokeno...
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Did miss a few of the hamilton way ones.. i was playing around a bit...
Now there was the first really close storm.. see all those random strikes scattered out from the BOP? they were actually a storm over east auckland, the Boltek manual mentions that effect with storms overhead.. I guess the receivers get overloaded or something, it did put them to the east though...
Now there was the first really close storm.. see all those random strikes scattered out from the BOP? they were actually a storm over east auckland, the Boltek manual mentions that effect with storms overhead.. I guess the receivers get overloaded or something, it did put them to the east though...
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alot of action on the kaimai ranges at the moment! !
did you hear any thunder ricky?
did you hear any thunder ricky?
Last edited by Manukau heads obs on Fri 29/10/2004 17:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Good to here guys! Lots of lightning over the central north Island and yes I see that stuff just east of Auckland and pratically over Auckland nearly. Maybe some pics later on of clouds?
I still wouldn't rule out thunder yet........ for Canterbury but it isn't looking great. A bit of sun poking through here now at home in Southshore with the temp around 15 (dewpoint 10), that trough will have to come through soon though which it won't until darkness falls by the looks of things. It has been forecasted to come through around 9 / 10pm from what I can see now but it is quite defined. Yesterday it was more like 4 / 4.30pm.
That cloud cover for the day hasn't been all that helpfull but it did clear to allow the sun through about around 3pm.
I still wouldn't rule out thunder yet........ for Canterbury but it isn't looking great. A bit of sun poking through here now at home in Southshore with the temp around 15 (dewpoint 10), that trough will have to come through soon though which it won't until darkness falls by the looks of things. It has been forecasted to come through around 9 / 10pm from what I can see now but it is quite defined. Yesterday it was more like 4 / 4.30pm.
That cloud cover for the day hasn't been all that helpfull but it did clear to allow the sun through about around 3pm.
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tich wrote:Got it wrong in yesterday's outlook for today, but the updated forecast for Canterbury today had no mention of thunder in it.MetService got it so wrong
yes ..well...makes sense as it was so overcast this morning as any thunderstorm development had no show of happening, so forecasts had to be adjusted.
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Well nothing tonight.....
None the less, it's been interesting looking at the models etc and seeing when and how the system is developing and what it's going to do. Things just developed a bit too late, the potential looked to be there around 3pm if it (the trough) had've come through then but it didn't of course. Maybe only heavy showers would've developed even if it did go through at 3pm due to all that mid and low cloud for the period up to 1pm. As John mentioned, it definately didn't help.
Some ok looking storms up north today which was good to hear (see!) somewhere got storms.
And yes Spwill, definately the situation you put foward for storms in Canterbury is definately the best!
I did a timelapse with my digital camera taking 90 photo's 15 seconds apart and then compiled it (yes that's sitting on the roof for about 23 minutes! lol). It shows the main southely flow near the surface with a small cb that formed offshore that goes east, quite cool and shows the main stearing winds would push storms if they happened east. I haven't got any program to compress the AVI (32mb) so won't put it up on my site. I thought I might be able to as I resized each frame to 300 x 451 pixels (72dpi) and saved each frame as a jpg with 30% compression but the file is still too big!
The cloud (scud type stuff) that was flowing when the southerly just started was great to watch as it was growing quite quickly.
Raining quite good here now and will for a few hours yet as the electrically dead Cb's move over.
None the less, it's been interesting looking at the models etc and seeing when and how the system is developing and what it's going to do. Things just developed a bit too late, the potential looked to be there around 3pm if it (the trough) had've come through then but it didn't of course. Maybe only heavy showers would've developed even if it did go through at 3pm due to all that mid and low cloud for the period up to 1pm. As John mentioned, it definately didn't help.
Some ok looking storms up north today which was good to hear (see!) somewhere got storms.
And yes Spwill, definately the situation you put foward for storms in Canterbury is definately the best!
I did a timelapse with my digital camera taking 90 photo's 15 seconds apart and then compiled it (yes that's sitting on the roof for about 23 minutes! lol). It shows the main southely flow near the surface with a small cb that formed offshore that goes east, quite cool and shows the main stearing winds would push storms if they happened east. I haven't got any program to compress the AVI (32mb) so won't put it up on my site. I thought I might be able to as I resized each frame to 300 x 451 pixels (72dpi) and saved each frame as a jpg with 30% compression but the file is still too big!
The cloud (scud type stuff) that was flowing when the southerly just started was great to watch as it was growing quite quickly.
Raining quite good here now and will for a few hours yet as the electrically dead Cb's move over.
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Lovely Cb's out there with nice heavy rain which passed over me around 12 / 12:30am. Pitty it's just the wrong time of day so no lightning out there.
Also, brilliant storm over Darwin tonight. I wonder what Deano is up to??!!
Also, brilliant storm over Darwin tonight. I wonder what Deano is up to??!!
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I have only glanced at yesterdays weather, but by the looking at Invercargill's soundings, thunder wasn't really on the cards for Canterbury yesterday as it turns out. Generally for thunder in east Canterbury you require deep cold air advection. By that I mean cold air getting into the upper atmosphere.
Invercargill midday friday 500mb (5000m) temperature -19 (not cold enough)
And the midnight sounding temperature had only cooled to -23, again not cold enough given the surface temperatures and dewpoints.
Look for temps colder than -25C for thunder in Canterbury. -30C is ideal
to create an unstable lapse rate. The upper air needs to be this cold for convection when dewpoints are relatively low. (under 13C).
Compare this to the Auckland sounding, 500hpa temp -15C but cb's developed with thunderstorms in the Waikato. Why, surface dewpoints were around 18C, temps 22C. Its really that dewpoint that was behind yesterdays convection.
By the way TT at Invercargill was 39, at Auckland 48.
Invercargill midday friday 500mb (5000m) temperature -19 (not cold enough)
And the midnight sounding temperature had only cooled to -23, again not cold enough given the surface temperatures and dewpoints.
Look for temps colder than -25C for thunder in Canterbury. -30C is ideal
to create an unstable lapse rate. The upper air needs to be this cold for convection when dewpoints are relatively low. (under 13C).
Compare this to the Auckland sounding, 500hpa temp -15C but cb's developed with thunderstorms in the Waikato. Why, surface dewpoints were around 18C, temps 22C. Its really that dewpoint that was behind yesterdays convection.
By the way TT at Invercargill was 39, at Auckland 48.
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Inetresting Cu forms going up at the moment.
Some castellatus, indicating a weak front going through.
Still Ne here.
I have given today a 1 because of this.
Nothing thundery will develop because of this as conditions are not right but if Friday was clear instead of the cloud hanging around, with this scenario, what's happening now, things could of been quite differerent and would of come up with MetService predictions for the day here in Canterbury
JohnGaul
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Some castellatus, indicating a weak front going through.
Still Ne here.
I have given today a 1 because of this.
Nothing thundery will develop because of this as conditions are not right but if Friday was clear instead of the cloud hanging around, with this scenario, what's happening now, things could of been quite differerent and would of come up with MetService predictions for the day here in Canterbury
JohnGaul
NZTS