Yes
Shaping up to be a lovely? anticyclonic month.
The anticyclone out to the east of us sending in ridging that should give us close to 30c temps tomorrow ...
... and the next one moving in from off the off the Australian bight should be a bit slower unfortunately giving us cold easteries to Christchurch.
If this the scenario, it could be...
...a month of jossseling temperatures because of this?
Yes, anticyclonic indeed. However, an upper trough (cold pool at 500mb) could induce something maybe near the middle to later part of next week. It's a we way out at the moment though but could prove fruitfull.
The SW has become strong but netherless its a nice sunny day 19c
The SW'ester can be a good wind. Today it was strong enough to keep out the NE seabreeze, preventing a sea breeze convergence zone from developing. Wind here was only about 10kts and temp got to 23C.
an upper trough (cold pool at 500mb) could induce something maybe near the middle to later part of next week
Should be plenty of moisture over NZ this week and with a possible upper trough later in the week, somewhere is going to get clobbered.
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Unread postby Manukau heads obs »
it was a strange sky late saturday....with a NE surge that came through above a SW sea breeze..
18 kts max here
(note, by weather data has been down , the login/ username has been changed
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Unread postby Michael »
Yesterday we had a light SW but when I was at Takapuna yesterday afternoon the NE seabreeze wasnt there nor was the SW it was so dead calm
Manukau heads observer wrote:it was a strange sky late saturday....with a NE surge that came through above a SW sea breeze..
18 kts max here
(note, by weather data has been down , the login/ username has been changed
Interesting. I just said to a friend he could borrow my digital camera tomorrow for some photo thing he might be doing, I might have to ring him up to say no!! I don't think I'll let anyone borrow my camera now, I just can't do it.
If anything the change is forecast to come through around or just before midday but that could change so it comes through a little later in the afternoon which I'd like to think it would. The upper is just a little too warm still but it will get colder so will be interesting to watch. But nothing of note on the metservice thunderstorm outlook and you'd have to think the've got better knowledge than me so probably no tomorrow unless the upper cools quite a bit for some reason?
500hpa temp currently -19C at Invercargill so starting to get a favourable lapse rate down south and yes, a bit more cooling in the upper air possible tommorrow. But the air has really dried off down there today.
Still, I agree, a 1 alert is appropriate.
It would be interesting to consider what Christchurch's climate would be like without the Alps. I don't think the mean temperature would be any lower and the weather would be quite thundery.
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Unread postby Michael »
I reckon they would have a hideous climate if the alps wernt there,the westerlies would howl across the island from the tasman and be similar to northland except colder
NZstorm wrote:
It would be interesting to consider what Christchurch's climate would be like without the Alps. I don't think the mean temperature would be any lower and the weather would be quite thundery.
Michael wrote:I reckon they would have a hideous climate if the alps wernt there,the westerlies would howl across the island from the tasman and be similar to northland except colder
NZstorm wrote:
It would be interesting to consider what Christchurch's climate would be like without the Alps.
It would be quite interesting here if the Alps didn't exist?
Has anyone ever done a scenario/theory on this?
It would be quite interesting here if the Alps didn't exist?
Has anyone ever done a scenario/theory on this?
Depends on whether the land was flat or still hilly in places (like Britain) - I'd still think in the latter scenario it would be drier in the east than the west, but in the manner of Canterbury getting lighter rain than the West Coast, rather than no rain.
Since two thirds to three quarters of Canterbury northeasterlies are lee trough winds, if the Alps were gone there would be no lee trough, hence a lot fewer northeasterlies. This would make average humidity levels lower and increase temperatures, providing the westerly quarter flows which generate lee-trough northeasterlies are warmer and drier than air off Pegasus Bay.
Clearly mean annual rainfall would be higher, and mean annual raindays higher also. There would probably be more days with more mid and high level cloud so sunshine hours may decrease a little, but total solar radiation might not be much affected.
Fohn nor'westers would be gone, so the very warm days of summer would disappear, as would the very high evapotranspiration rates. So droughts would be less frequent and less severe. Given that frequncy of norwest days has a big influence on summer temperatures I would think our mean summer temperature would be lower, but winter temperatures may not be much changed.
With out the Southern Alps Canterbury Average humidity levels would be much higher (By far the biggest sauce of moisture on to NZ is from the NW and this would not be blocked). So more humidity and rainfall + rain days= WARMER WINTER temps all round but the very hot summer days will be gone.
Those southern Alps do help generate high cloud,so less high cloud but more medium level cloud.
John and Aaron would be very happy more often as there would be many more Thunderstorms.
Without the Southern Alps Canterbury's climate would be very wet, with very little range in temperature - seasonal and diurnally, no frosts either ... because without the Sthn Alps, we would be under the sea! No mtn uplift, consequent erosion and feeding by rivers over all these years to build up the Canty Plains. Ah ha ha.
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Unread postby Michael »
The winds would probably be "straight" westerly most of the time and Auckland probably wouldnt get so much gales either due to the wind blowing up because it would go across the SI and the westcoasts "northerlies" would be just westerlies too but less heavy rain and lots of showers
wxgirl wrote:Without the Southern Alps Canterbury's climate would be very wet, with very little range in temperature - seasonal and diurnally, no frosts either ... because without the Sthn Alps, we would be under the sea! No mtn uplift, consequent erosion and feeding by rivers over all these years to build up the Canty Plains. Ah ha ha.
Nice one
We could all be living on Bank's Island, which would probably be renamed Canterbury Island
I don't think I'll let anyone borrow my camera now, I just can't do it. 
