Canterbury Thunderstorms Mid Next Week?

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Canterbury Thunderstorms Mid Next Week?

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Could be a chance again on thunder activity in Canterbury mid next week as a shallow trough passes over?
I have a 4 on that possibility for the Wednesday/Thursday.
Could change as mid-next week comes closer :-k

Here's me saying this when I thought that this spring into summer was going to a bit of a disapointment. :oops:

TonyT/WeatherWX have ChCh temp for 30C for tomorrow

Slow moving anticyclone over the Australian Bight show return us to anticyclone conditions at the end of the month, hopefully, Micheal ;)

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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms Mid Next Week?

Unread post by TonyT »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:TonyT/WeatherWX have ChCh temp for 30C for tomorrow

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Christchurch may not get to 30 as the nor'easter may hang around most if not all the day, still likely to be mid-20s though. Most of the Plains could get to 30 though.
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Re: Canterbury Thunderstorms Mid Next Week?

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

TonyT wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:TonyT/WeatherWX have ChCh temp for 30C for tomorrow

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Christchurch may not get to 30 as the nor'easter may hang around most if not all the day, still likely to be mid-20s though. Most of the Plains could get to 30 though.
Yes, Tony, you are probably right.
I'm heading away to Oamaru for the Victorian Festival - Penny farthings, morris dancing etc., this WE, so should be a warm trip down there tomorrow ...and possibly back late Sunday :)

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Unread post by Thunder »

Yes I was also thinking middel of next week (various models look interesting) but I never really say anything until a day or two before hand becasue it's quite far out. Time will tell the accuracy of things I guess.

Warm Micheal like conditions tomorrow!

Have a good time at the festival John!
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

....and I must add a pint or 2 of Emerson's Book-binder Ale at the Criterion :) :) :) ;) :D

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Unread post by Michael »

Just think of us enjoying the high teens and blustery SW with cloud while you bake down there ;) :roll:
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Storms mid next week!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yeah I also agree on storms next week here in Canterbury looks like they are forecasting for SW change with showers some thundery from what I read in the press ( which was issued at about 1am this morning so it could have changed to Wednesday by now).

Interesting you say 30c for tomorrow I actually reackon about 27-28dg I guess time will tell. :-k

Have fun down at festival John I heard its meant to be quite good.



Cheers Jason Tippet. 8)
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Unread post by tich »

Christchurch may not get to 30 as the nor'easter may hang around most if not all the day, still likely to be mid-20s though.
Looks like the northeaster is hanging around in Chch, but it's not even near the mid 20s - only 17.8C on Jeff's station. :( But I can recall the odd day in the past when a cool northeaster has changed to a warm norwester late in the day. Here's hoping.

Anyway, summer should take a break next week with wintry air moving in - some of the models (eg GASP) even look like bringing in air cold enough for snow to low levels in the far south.
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Re: Storms mid next week!

Unread post by TonyT »

Jasestrm wrote: from what I read in the press ( which was issued at about 1am this morning
Cheers Jason Tippet. 8)
Most morning newspapers are being printed at 1am, in fact the early copies are probably on the trucks trundling off to far-away places. The deadline for the Press weather used to be 6pm, which meant the forecast was prepared around 5pm the previous evening. I'd be surprised if its any later now.
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Unread post by Andy »

30.1 here in Alexandra today :D
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Unread post by spwill »

Charts for mid-next week have a stormy look to them.

Most of us will see Thunderstorms at some stage probably before mid week.
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Unread post by Michael »

We as always will get the worst :o
spwill wrote:Charts for mid-next week have a stormy look to them.

Most of us will see Thunderstorms at some stage probably before mid week.
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Night storm!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Looks like the second Cold front coming in from the Tasman is making bigger impact than thought.
I recall yesterday and today the forecast telling us for fine weather on Sunday but now epecially after seeing tonight's weather on one news it shows showers and heavy in the farr south.
But next weeks fronts will still make for the best stormy weather.
Only 20dg today :( I guess that NE wind stuck around for too long infact its almost 11pm and its still not NW here on the coast especially if they are expecting winds to 100kmh in South Canterbury tonight.
Ohh well looks like Warm weather tomorrow with NW winds then SW change with brief showers.
Cheers here's to stormy week ahead. =D>
Correct me if iam wrong about senond cold front.
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Very very blustry NW here!
26 C and wind speeds gusting too 52khm although I think they will be alot more inland!
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Unread post by Thunder »

Nice clouds outside at present. I thought if anything could happen it would be today and not yesterday even though metservice had a thunderstorm warning out for us. Still, yet to see where it takes us but good so far!
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Unread post by Thunder »

This is what it's like so far, winds are variable perhaps tending NE. We'll haev to see what it does, I'm not sure what'll happen.
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Unread post by tich »

Some very strong (near gale) nothwest gusts around Akaroa yesterday, easing later in afternoon. Cloud mostly cleared later in evening; but didn't look thundery at all. Cumulus developed about noon, quite dark to the northeast, but the cloud hasn't increased any further.

Could possibly be heavy rain in Canterbury next Wednesday/Thursday, according to MetService long-range severe weather warning, but possiblity is rated low, and actual long-range forecast only suggests showers and cool southerlies for Thursday.
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Unread post by Thunder »

Yes, warm strong NW winds yesterday, did cool down though during late afternoon which was nice in a sense because of the hot day.

Nothing today. I think the activity this morning / early afternoon was encouraged by an upper trough that moved through but then moved away letting in a small upper ridge which killed it.
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Unread post by Thunder »

Tuesday afternoon is looking interesting with a nice trough forming in South Canterbury. Shear is also good, maybe too good! It may mean storms move ENE'wards quite fast, unlike Monday earlier this week where shear wasn't good meaning the storm SW of Chch stayed put for a bit. But there's that one problem again, cloud cover could hinder things. Wednesday I'm not sure but I'll watch with interest. Will update my prognosis tomorrow afternoon! I'm always looking out for a severe storm forecast! :)

Tony, do you think you'd be able to see if a supercell could form according to models etc for NZ? Obviously conditions would suit vary rarely for NZ. Actually, I don't think forecasters would ever say, "Supercells possible". They more or less say, "Severe storms possible" if anything. Do you think you could see it if things looked possible for their development?
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Unread post by TonyT »

No. :)
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Unread post by Thunder »

Bahh! :shock: Of course you can!
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Unread post by Thunder »

One thing I forgot to mention and think about yesterday was that the trough would come through late evening which is no good!

The latest model run however has brought this foward a bit but it's still late in the day (late afternoon). Tot tot, I'm not sure what it is for midday Tuesday because the map isn't readable, have a look:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/late ... DE=IDX0092

For midnight Tuesday it looks good with 50 plotted over Canterbury, so I'm guessing it's good for late afternoon Tuesday? Once again though cloud cover could become an issue. Upper air will get a bit colder but only around -20/-22. It could do us ok. I want to see a dewpoint of 10 or higher though with a good temp (17-20? or higher which is unlikely) continue into late afternoon to be confident of storms otherwise I'm unsure. Storms in South Canterbury could be good....

What do you think Tony? It's happening all a bit late unless things are brought foward a bit perhaps?



On another note I haven't been able to update my pages due to a router issue in the states, tomorrow! Some stuff is up there.
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Unread post by spwill »

Wendsday might be too cloudy in Canterbury for TS development but Thurs looks better with pre-frontal sunshine and unstable air over you.
Up here our chance for a Storm come's with the Front on Wendsday morning and may be with some afternoon convection showers Wendsday afternoon.
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Unread post by TonyT »

Since I wasnt forecasting today I'm not really in the loop - looking at the data I find it a real toss-up. Yes, there is the potential there to get some really unstable air inside the low, and if the movement of the centre is just right and a few other things fall into place (like morning sunshine and a light NE breeze) then it could definitely go whoosh. On the other hand ;-) theres a lot to stuff it up - the movement of the low centres within the torugh seems far from certain, and I have no idea how much cloud will form within it, and the upper level temps dont look too favourable until much later in the day. Hmmm, its one of those days when if it all comes together we will see multiple CBs, the works, and if it doesnt then the day will just slowly cloud up and start drizzling. Its not likely to be much in between. If its of any help, I notice Ange hasnt mentioned TS in the Blue Skies forecasts, so she cant be very convinced... :?
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Unread post by tich »

Could possibly be heavy rain in Canterbury next Wednesday/Thursday, according to MetService long-range severe weather warning, but possiblity is rated low, and actual long-range forecast only suggests showers and cool southerlies for Thursday.
I think there's now only a low chance of heavy rain in Canterbury on Wednesday, but cold southwesterlies should then set in and (according to the latest models I've seen) linger through to the weekend. In fact it looks like quite a wintry period coming, especially after the warmer than normal temperatures we've been experiencing so far in November.
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