Possable Thunderstorms for Monday 29th November on Forecast

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Storm Struck
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Possable Thunderstorms for Monday 29th November on Forecast

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Just read Met services forecast fopr tomorrow I can tell you now it pleases me thunderstorms and hail for us here in Canterbury and afternoon thunderstorms for coastal Otago.
I hope all goes to plan and we get these storms its been a good start to this season of storms so farr and summer doesn't start till this Wednesday.
Ive done not too bad so farr got lightning on 30 second video :D which is a first for me so all these storms are a great kick off.
I can't remember the last time we had storms occur in November here it certainatly wasn't in the last couple of years most of them have happend either in December or January even Febuary (who could forget the big storm on Febuary 14th) Ian kelly got an awsome shot there of the lightning.
Bloody cold at Christmas in the park last night but that didnt stop the fireworks and fun 8) .
Here's to storms tomorrow and who knows what else this week will bring. :shock:
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.
Last edited by Storm Struck on Sun 28/11/2004 18:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post by TonyT »

Theres a lot of cold advection and hence instability forecast for Canty, but some of the other factors dont look so good -eg cloud cover. Personally it doesnt look like a great storm producing situation for Canty to me, despite the fact the models indicate otherwise. Who will win tomorrow, Tony or the computer? ;)

You only need to go back 2 years to remember significant Tstorms in Canty in October.
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Unread post by TonyT »

The convection outlook only has a moderate risk of TS for Canty and I notice there is no mention of TS in the Chch forecast, only showers. Its clearly not a done deal in Metservice's mind either (which your post above gave the impression it was).
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

TonyT wrote:... Its clearly not a done deal in Metservice's mind either (which your post above gave the impression it was).
I think it is clear in Metservices mind!

Why elae would they state

In the Canterbury region there is a moderate risk of afternoon thunderstorms, especially over the Plains accompanied by some hail, possibly up to 20mm diameter, and wind squalls


If they werent confident they would have it as a low risk not moderate risk

So jason impression there is right,
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Unread post by TonyT »

03 Stormchaser wrote:If they werent confident they would have it as a low risk not moderate risk
Sorry that doesnt make sense - you cant be confident about something and ascribe it a moderate risk. If the risk is moderate surely you are uncertain about it? (Assuming a three point risk scale where low risk indicates possible but not likely, and high risk indicates you consider it likely).

You cant make the chances of a storm any greater tomorrow by wishful thinking... :)
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Unread post by tich »

I think we must remember that thunderstorm events in Canterbury are usually scattered occurrences - ie some places will get them, while others don't (even though the cbs can still provide a visual spectacle). The issuing of risk likelihoods (low, moderate, and high) obviously apply to the likelihood of storms over the area as a whole, not any particular place.
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STORMS POSSABLE YES/NO?

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Just seen one news weather and from what it showed was brief showers thunderstorms and possable hail but then it clear.
It went through pretty fast on the news when they showed it but iam sure it wont be that fast there I REACKON the might be more storms than expected just like Dunedin but time will tell and thats just my opinion.
8)
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Unread post by Thunder »

Yes, I see things indicating cloud cover tomorrow on models but it won't be high or mid level, I'm thinking more lower down stuff. Maybe I'm wrong there and tomorrow will help me in future predictions.

I'm guessing a SW is meant to come through, Tony...do you know what time this would be around? From what I can see now I'm thinking sometime between 4 and 7pm, would that be right?

Whether the change brings thunderstorms or not I'm not sure.
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Unread post by TonyT »

SW flow from early morning, whether that means SW winds at the surface early morning is less clear, but in this case I think it probably does. If storms do occur they wont be frontal ones, but airmass ones in the unstable SW flow if enough sunshine gets going, so mid afternoon like last time, and probably forming over North Otago/South Canty and moving up as the flow increases in the afternoon. A lot of the signs are there in the model data, but, damn it, it just doesnt feel right from a forecasting perspective.

Best case scenario would be a weaker than expected front early morning, a period of NE from mid to late morning and cloud breaking to let some sunshine in for a few hours, then the flow tightening up in the afternoon and cold advection really pushing through. Worst case would be a cloudy drizzly front which doesnt clear at all from early morning. We shall see. :)
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Unread post by Thunder »

Cool, thanks heaps!
:)

We'll see what the day does. Much better with the upper colder air pushing in anyway. Better than -15/-12 C at 500mb that's for sure.

I'm also thinking into the weekend could be good coming up. It just looks like an unstable period with cold upper air and the lows (the hpa variaty) on various models. Maybe? :( John, what do you think? Or anyone else for that matter! Any input appreciated.
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Unread post by TonyT »

It looks like we're heading towards the best case scenario in terms of getting a good clearance behind the front, but will the flow stay too WSW to push any showers into Canty? Hmmm.
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Unread post by Thunder »

Temperature got up to 18 this morning (19.4 C at jeffs!), has cooled off a little sitting at around 15 C with a southerly although dewpoint has risen to 12 so that's good. That SSW, I'm not sure what it'll do.

Looking foward to somthing hopefully!?
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hopefully something

Unread post by Storm Struck »

yeah Bloody SW wind came through earlier than expected although its not overly cold just sitting on 16dg here.
Iam thinking we will be sorta like Dunedin's forecast showers first then thunderstorms ( iam not sure how that works) :? .
Whats tomorrow looking like for us? looks like we are getting breezy Northerly winds with a high of 19dg maybe something there who knows the weather seems to be all over the show across the country at the moment strong NW winds in North island.
Ohh well just have to see what happens hopefully storms do happen and this cloud breaks a bit. 8)
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Unread post by Fujita Phil »

Some nice CB's going up around here at moment... and black to the SW. Fast moving skies though

Will keep you posted, but looks like rain mostly
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Unread post by Fujita Phil »

Though dew points are over 12... is that good? Or need to be higher

Just don't think there has been enough 'warming'. Temp only 15, barometer low at 988 and falling and 81% humidity.

Quite "busy" looking skies though
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
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Unread post by Thunder »

Yes, that sounds like a very good dewpoint for storms considering how cold the upper air is. A bit more heating would be of help though down your way, not much, just a bit more. But, we had that gusty storm last thursday and dewpoints were only 8 and the temp only got up to 14.8 so keep a lookout I guess. There are some strikes near you on the tracker so will be interesting to watch.

Looking ok here but would be good if that SW died down to let a NE in before the main front this afternoon/evening.

Edited: 1:06pm

Just went for a walk to the overbridge. Some good looking clouds (Cu/Cu congestus) over B'sP and to the east off and just on the coast. To the west the plains look quite cluttered looking with lots of low cloud, but...aslong as this SW flow continues it should clear I would think sometime this afternoon ready for the arrival of the afternoon/evening front. Sunny in Chch with the temp still at 15C.
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Storms a comin

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Looks like storms are starting to happen lightning tracker is picking up strikes coming up the east coast the latest and closest strikes near Elesmere which shows the proper change moving up.
I also looked at land care research which looks like low cloud clearing from the south side of the Peninsula with some good beafy shower clouds coming in proberly where the lightning is coming from.
I have seen some good CU around me and out to sea but hard to see at the moment with all this low cloud which is meant to burn off before (hopefully) the thunderstorms arrive but its starting to look promising. 8)
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Unread post by Thunder »

Some nice clouds hovering out there. But, I must say I'm confused on what will happen. Better than other day's... 'yes', but yeah......I turn this over to Tony! :D
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Unread post by Fujita Phil »

We did have some thunder but not much else. A skiff of very small hail and some rain.

Still some buildups here and there, but a stronger sw now.
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
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Unread post by TonyT »

Heh, dont look at me... =; I only work here...

:lol:
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Unread post by Fujita Phil »

Hail, thunder... stuck in work, damn
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
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Unread post by Thunder »

I see ;)

Skies have cleared or are clearing over the plains which is good. So when the front arrives I would imagine good things? Some dark bases out towards the east but no Cb's / lightning that I can tell of or see on the tracker. Just big Congestus. Looking foward to something late afternoon / evening!
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nice CU

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yeah some nice CU out there I also noticed the lower cloud is being sucked up into the CU that I can tell because of the darkish bases and the cloud isnt moving as fast as the low cloud was an hour ago.
Just took some shots of some good Cu out towards sea proberly the ones you just metioned Aaron but iam much closer out here so I took some shots so you can look at them below get an idea of whats going on out here.
Here's to something intersting this afternoon/evening.
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JASON TIPPET. 8)
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Unread post by Thunder »

Good stuff Jason! Yes, you can see scud being sucked up into the clouds which is cool

A ENE has begun blowing so that's good! With the arrival of the S late this afternoon / evening here's looking foward to some storms!
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aLL DIRECTIONS

Unread post by Storm Struck »

I got cloud in all directions here That CU on the photo's I took not lang ago has come over me because of the NE wind flow.
Not too bad either looking to clear out to the NE with some good blue sky some hopefully some nice heating before SW chnage arrives.
I noticed on the lightning detector strikes just farr out from the Peninsula but iam more set on the strikes coming up the coast. :D .
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