NZ Weather Forum

This coming WKend and friday for us here in Canterbury is looking good!
Saturday from what im seeing has a higher chance for some sort of activity over the north island, while my fingers are crossed for both days to fire down here!!

And what a season it has been in Canterbury!!!

and too add its started to rain here!
NE, 10kmph, and 12 C

It would look good with a big high planted over N.Z with it intesifying as it moves slowly east

Michael wrote:It would look good with a big high planted over N.Z with it intesifying as it moves slowly east

Yes, well that's what I origionally posted about a month ago saying that Novemeber was going to be an anticyclonic month
How proudfully wrong I was
It started off that way but it never lasted long.

JohnGaul
NZTS

On the upside, I think that late December and January are going to be anticyclonic, so Michael I will looking forward to then

JohnGaul
NZAAA

Yes, looking foward to this Friday but would prefer on Saturday but if thunderstorms could be on both that's fine with me!

John, would do you think for this Friday / Saturday coming up?

looks good for saturday with a low forming just east of Canterbury!

Some nice Cu out there now!

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:
John, would do you think for this Friday / Saturday coming up?

Good news, Aaron and Steven.

A 4 for Friday and also inland for Saturday but only a 2 along the coast.

I was tempted to put up a 5 max but due to timing and conditions, at the moment a 4 was the best I could and can predict

JohnGaul
NZTS

Good to hear John. Looking forward to both days!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:
John, would do you think for this Friday / Saturday coming up?

Good news, Aaron and Steven.

A 4 for Friday and also inland for Saturday but only a 2 along the coast
JohnGaul

NZTS

What about for inland canterbury saturday john?

03 Stormchaser wrote:

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Good news, Aaron and Steven.

A 4 for Friday and also inland for Saturday but only a 2 along the coast
JohnGaul

NZTS

What about for inland canterbury saturday john?

A 4 as stated above

JohnGaul
NZTS

Yeah well hopefully both days of storms would be great maybe the storms will spread to the coast if there's a change to westerly winds.
But still good chasing weather .
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

Its blowing a Gale out here some good gusts of 60-70kmh on my windometre good windstorm clouds out towards west as well might get a few drops or rain soon although its pretty dry and warm 24.7dg right now at 11:50am.
I got my new video camera been playing around with it getting used to all the new gadgets, bells and whistles not really bells and whistles .
Just going to collect my tripod for the camera today and iam all set for the next few days of hopefully storms.
By the way Aaron the book you are reading of mine ( weather eye) I kinda realised after getting into the book iam in now its sorta abit more for younger people but you see I got the book when I was 15 and just left it until I finally was interested in reading the book but now iam halfway through my next book the coming global superstorm which when iam finished you can read.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

What are the chances of storms happening in Canterbury tomorrow? .
The forecast doesn't suggest so and the severe thunderstorm outlook doesn't either but however other forcasts show thunderstorms from Timaru to Dunedin yet there's no storm warnings in place?.
What do you think John?.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

I mean
For Saturday 4 remains in place


JohnGaul
NZTS

Jasestrm wrote:What are the chances of storms happening in Canterbury tomorrow? .
The forecast doesn't suggest so and the severe thunderstorm outlook doesn't either but however other forcasts show thunderstorms from Timaru to Dunedin yet there's no storm warnings in place?.
What do you think John?.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

I'm thinking now possibly not because of the persisent NW today which looks likely to gradually ease into tomorrow
Perhaps Saturday maybe better?
...or Sunday?
Alert for tomorrow reduced to 3.
For Saturday 4 remains in place
Sunday nort at the moment

JohnGaul
NZTS


JohnGaul
NZTS

Sorry about that, my 2 last postings were arse about face

JohnGaul
NZTS

Yeah looking much better for Saturday too windy down south and with the isobars the way they are over the next 24 hours it would just be too windy for storms tomorrow.
But Saturday is looking ok want to get out chasing on Saturday and use my new Video camera .
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

Be more F inclement weather

Tommorow's thunderstorms alerts are reduced to 1
The westerly flow is too persistent

JohnGaul
NZTS

Saturday is looking good for inland Canterbury so maybe some chasing there and sunday has it for rain heavy and thundery falls wether thats here or on the west coast bu the way they have wrote it says rain clearing from the west it doesn't say exactly where the tundery falls would be.
Here's to what's coming up .
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

Saturday looks a likely 4 for Canterbury/Otago. I will give a 1 for the rest of the country. Large hail possible over the South Island too.

What are the ingrediants for large hail exactly Steven?

I'm not totally sure on the matter but this is what I'm thinking. I figured you need dry air in the mid and upper levels for hail. Not in relation so the sun can get through for heating (although of course we want that), but there's some other reason hail forms better when the mid levels are dry, not sure why but read it somewhere . But tomorrow I see quite a bit of moisture throughout most except the very upper atmosphere (300mb, storm's won't get this high anyway, well they probably won't). This makes me think cloud cover! Then it makes me think no sun!! Then it makes me think updrafts won't be as strong to produce large hail!!! Microburst potential looks possible though, I'm not very clued up on that one (microbursts), just figured the situation suited it more from my limited knowledge. Hopefully (coming from my understanding) the sun does manage to break through?

I understand once Steven W you said high mositure levels are needed at the surface for large hail, is this the case possibly for tomorrow? I guess with the forecast ENE winds feeding inland that'll help. I hope there is large hail tomorrow, I would like to see some!!

There is another factor though.........shear. And tomorrow looks ok'ish, not as good as some days but better than the 15th Nov 2004 storm for e.g. Perhaps this is the ingrediant that will help to create stronger updrafts resulting in bigger hail? (although that moisture factor still remains) A jet lies over the North Island which would help but we're only on the edge of it.

Tony?

Apart from the above I like your sentiments on the other thread saying good chances for thunder in the SI tomorrow, looking foward to it.

Also, Sunday might be good to?

I have a 2 for Sunday as well if there are sunny periods

JohnGaul
NZTS

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