First Weekend for December looking Good!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 03/12/2004 18:02

A 3 for tomorrow, this is general for Canterbury (plains,coast and inland) so head inland Steve and Aaron, also Jason. These shallow lows usually produce fruit (remember the Ruapuna tornado?) depending on cloud cover and upper level instability.
I have a 2 for Sunday as well if there are sunny periods

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 03/12/2004 18:04

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:A 3 for tomorrow, this is general for Canterbury (plains,coast and inland) so head inland Steve and Aaron, also Jason. These shallow lows usually produce fruit (remember the Ruapuna tornado?) depending on cloud cover and upper level instability.
I have a 2 for Sunday as well if there are sunny periods

JohnGaul
NZTS

What's going on here ????

Things coming out arse about face?

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 03/12/2004 18:06

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Apart from the above I like your sentiments on the other thread saying good chances for thunder in the SI tomorrow, looking foward to it.

Also, Sunday might be good to?

Who are you talking to Aaron?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Fri 03/12/2004 18:41

Hehe John.

Regarding my quote in your post above, I was talking to Steven W. He says on the NI Storms thread good chance for thunder in the SI, and I'm looking foward to it!

John. What are you doing?!!! Your going to be out and about in your car aren't you? You should be chasing with your camera to! All the more info for the coming meeting! And Bob! You chasing Steven G?

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 03/12/2004 19:36

Just seen the one news weather and from it's perpective the storms are moving up pretty slow

but as I say on many occasions storms have been known to build up early even though forecasts have it that storms will happen later

.
It also says for heavy thundery rain? ( HEAVY THUNDERY RAIN?) since when was the last time Canterbury had that? heavy thundery rain doesn't occur in Canterbury very often hmmm dont they mean thunderstorms.

So considering that storms brew up early inland tomora I should be off chasing if not then probly Sunday

.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

North Canterbury the better side of the Waimak

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 03/12/2004 20:12

I've not been in the forecasting hot seat today, so I've only just caught up with the excitement

but I see Ange has gone for isolated afternoon TS in the Blue Skies forecast.

Looking at the total totals the LAPS model is going for 50+ at midday and 55 at midnight which is plenty, and there are -ve vertical velocity peaks over the SI at both times at 700Hpa and 500Hpa, so the model looks to be suggesting plenty of uplift.

The GFS model doesnt seem to want to make things as unstable until night time.

Other factors look good too, light winds at the surface should enable a NE to get going fairly easily, doesnt look like much upper cloud cover. Upper air is plenty cold enough. All in all I would say it looks pretty promising for CB development over the SI during the afternoon, and there's no reason why Canty should miss out.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Fri 03/12/2004 20:38

TonyT wrote:I've not been in the forecasting hot seat today, so I've only just caught up with the excitement but I see Ange has gone for isolated afternoon TS in the Blue Skies forecast.

Looking at the total totals the LAPS model is going for 50+ at midday and 55 at midnight which is plenty, and there are -ve vertical velocity peaks over the SI at both times at 700Hpa and 500Hpa, so the model looks to be suggesting plenty of uplift.

The GFS model doesnt seem to want to make things as unstable until night time.

Other factors look good too, light winds at the surface should enable a NE to get going fairly easily, doesnt look like much upper cloud cover. Upper air is plenty cold enough. All in all I would say it looks pretty promising for CB development over the SI during the afternoon, and there's no reason why Canty should miss out.

Wat about for sunday??

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Fri 03/12/2004 21:10

First of all. I've got the wrong idea about cloud cover, I think. Or have I? I look at RH levels in the atmosphere on models to see where cloud cover will be, Is that the wrong way to go about it?

Not much cloud cover tomorrow? If so, yehaa! Something to discuss at this meeting next Thursday, I haven't grasped it somewhere. I see what you mean regarding vertical velocities, I can see negative so things look good! And things look likely to occur into the evening possibly?

And I'll put this out there, small chance of supercells (mesocyclones/tornadoes etc). Very small, but it could happen!!

Sunday, still a chance. Total totals according to GASP are 60 and if so that is very good! Beyond that I'm not sure. Focusing on Saturday right now!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 03/12/2004 21:44

MetService's latest short forecast is for heavy showers and thunderstorms developing in Nelson, Malborough, Canterbury and Otago tomorrow afternoon, but their convective forecast is for moderate thunder risk for inland areas of South island. BTW, I wonder whether 'inland' Canterbury refers to the foothills/high country or means the plains as well.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Fri 03/12/2004 21:51

I think Chch has a good shot tomorrow. Yes I noticed their updated forecast. They tend to have 3 possible update times. In the morning between 8:30am and 11am, then 1:30pm or there abouts and then again at around 3/3:30pm. I suspect they just haven't updated it yet. I'm sure tomorrow morning will reveal possible High risk on their charts for us.

Inland? I'm guessing it means Darfield/Springfield inwards? But, I don't think development will be resricted to these areas.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 03/12/2004 22:20

Yeah looking good for us now in terms or storms 2mora

I seen Met services forecast for heavy showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon but if they meant inland Canterbury wouldn't it be wise for them to metion that like they have been ova the last few days of the forecast.
Which means storms here (hopefully)

Sunday's also not too bad but we will deal with 2mora first.

Iam kinda hoping things will build up early-ish in the morning maybe 10:30am-11:00am things may start to build up hopefully.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

North Canterbury the better side of the Waimak

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 04/12/2004 07:59

had a shower pass over here earlier this morning,
some good clouds already! fingers crossed!!

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Sat 04/12/2004 08:18

I had some very heavy showers last night that actually woke me up!

I guess that's a good omen if thunder starts happening in the night.

Very thundery looking out there this morning with dark bases and big clouds, there's also a clearing on the plains that looks like it'll let in the sun.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 04/12/2004 09:46

I had some very heavy showers last night that actually woke me up!

I notice Jeff recorded 3.2mm in 1 hour at Hillmorton. I woke up briefly in the early hours and noticed some brief rain falling, but nothing heavy. Had another brief shower about 9AM.

I was going to do a training ride today, but the weather looks a bit too unsettled. But will have to wait and see.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 04/12/2004 10:45

East/northeast wind seems to be pushing the shower activity back for the moment - 10AM radar shows most it to the south (offshore and South Canterbury. Sunshine to warm the ground - later this afternoon could be very interesting.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 04/12/2004 10:48

I've just looked at the AA Road Report - flooding between Timaru, Oamaru and Kurow. Thunderstorm downpours or general heavy rain?

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Sat 04/12/2004 14:03

We are getting rain down here from decayed Cb's that have drifted in from the NW. Surface wind is SE though. Atmosphere looks fairly unstable

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 04/12/2004 15:02

Atmosphere looks fairly unstable

Todays sounding for Invercargill has the 500mb temp at -31C with a light upper NW flow. That creates a fairly unstable environment for Southland but it would take some surface heating to act as a trigger for stronger cb development. Perhaps just to much cloud cover over Southland today for that to happen.

Something happening out to the NW of the North Island today judging by cloud development up there, maybe a low centre. Real mucky day in Auckland, we are very much in the cold sector with no chance of seeing the 18C temp predicted. Tomorow's weather looks awful with a strong SW'ester.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 04/12/2004 16:00

http://www.demaroussem.net.nz/
another canterbury station
updates every minute

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 04/12/2004 16:13

Still sunny in Chch, with scattered cloud all around. Possibly something over BP within the last hour or 2, as darker cloud in that direction. Northeasterly has just become strong and gusty. (fresh earlier) Late morning there looked like storm activity to the southwest, which would've moved this way had there been a southerly front. But there was no such front, and it looked as if it stayed there and weakened.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 04/12/2004 16:21

CRAP CRAP CRAP all I can say Wonder if England is better

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 04/12/2004 16:48

Michael wrote:CRAP CRAP CRAP all I can say Wonder if England is better

That's nice

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 04/12/2004 18:03

Clouding over in Chch now, thicker to the west. Ties in well with 4PM radar, which shows action now in inland central Canterbury. Still a fresh to strong NE wind here. Who knows what'll happen next.

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Sat 04/12/2004 18:22

Looked to be some good Cbs out west at 4pm so I drove out beyond Glentunnel then hit heavy rain. Didn't see any lightning but heard lots of sferics on AM. Could have been from the activity to the N which the tracker reckons is over Nelson.

Have some great footage of rain on the windscreen

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Sat 04/12/2004 19:28

Me, Steve and Jason Tippet got onto the plains around 11:00am and did alot of waiting! We saw various lines form then break and more form then break but unfortunately nothing substantial formed. Later when Steve had to go back a Cb managed to pop up on the foothills so that was the last thing of interest we saw. It looked to of produced no more than heavy rain. No lightning visiable but there was some associated with Cb's to the South more and NW that were along the foothills later in the afternoon. We saw some nice heavy rain shafts but that's it. A bit of a bugger of a day, it just didn't happen. Here's some pics anyway.

One of the various lines we saw.

Some nice Cu

Cb on the foothills, I don't think this particular cell produced any lightning. One further to the N of us (NW of Chch as ricky mentions below) did however and another to the SW looked to of produced some but overall nothing very frequent

Us on the edge of the Cb looking at rainshafts going onto the foothills.

Some ok rain here at the moment as these Cb's are drifting and dissapating over us.

NZ Weather Forum

First Weekend for December looking Good!

Slower moving storms up SI 2mora?

looking good for us