tropical cyclone's

[Manukau heads obs]

i just thought i would start a fresh thread,,,
i see the one nearest fiji is currently drifting SE...rats, not towards us...(its been tooo long now without a TC hitting NZ...)


ps, rain finally stopped!
after 103mm!

[NZstorm]

Yes, our name is not on this one. Roual Island should be affected.
Station 93994 on the Met Service AWS. Could be interesting to observe
the obs.

We are bound to catch a TC before the end of April.

heres hoping anyway.

[Manukau heads obs]

http://poletopole.org/flash/viewer.php? ... 0&lonb=179


an interesting links....

[Guest]

Look at that , two cyclones starting with the same letter of the alphabet , on the same weather map, and with very similar names.

The point of naming these things is so that we can id them quickly without confusion....dates back to when the US were bombing Japan and the bombing crew were coming and going so often across micronesia they forgot what day of the week it was. They were encountering cyclones more than one per week (as you do in NW pacific) and so they used the phonetic alphabet to keep track (alpha brabo charlie delta etc).

after WWII this evolved to a list of male names. after the 70s each Tropical Cyclone warning centre TCWC has its own list and the names usually alternate male-female.

Bribane named Erica (west of 160 abd Fiji named ESETA (east of 160) but sadly this is a rare weathermap where the names may bring confusion. I don't think ESETA will last very long , but its bringing squalls to western Fiji (may be some flooding). ERICA looks more damaging , heading for New Caledonia on Thursday.

check out http://metsoc.rsnz.org/weather.html link 79 or
http://www.meteo.nc/temps/obs/analyse/anal.htm for latest Analysis on a Satpic.

[Manukau heads obs]

including tc craig, and the big system in the Indian ocean, there are currently 4 active TC's in the southern hemisphere at the moment.
and if craig keeps going east as survives the crossing of cape york (it will get a refuel as it crosses water in the gulf of carpentaria), it will make it into the south pacific, to make 3 there!
erica is looking more and more powerfull

[Manukau heads obs]

nogaps has a direct hit on NZ from erica...............
its certainly in a good spot
and the low to the east is blocking the next high, and the jet stream over oz is held up by a upper trough, and so a window of oppurtinty?

[CbFan]

Not directly related to Erica, this site has some beautiful Hi-Res images of cyclones etc:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?short

The real biggies run to 3Mb images, but make astounding wallpaper

[Manukau heads obs]

http://pages.intnet.mu/bimal296/ir.htm

sat pic of Kalunde

[NZstorm]

Hourly metars from Noumea airport here.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/NWWW.html

[Manukau heads obs]

cool
baro dropping, wind increasing..
not good for them...

[Skywatcher]

Uni of Wyoming (http://weather.uwyo.edu) has the same data but with a graphical option to show the trends - for Noumea:

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/wyowx.f ... ATION=NWWW

[Manukau heads obs]

23 m/s gusting 35 m/s was the peak
i.e 42 kts gustin 75 kts!
baro 968mb


NWWW 14/0100 981.0 26 25 94 210 23 35 4 FEW006 BKN008 OVC040 R
NWWW 14/0000 970.9 26 26 100 330 15 23 6 FEW003 BKN013 OVC050 R
NWWW 13/2300 968.9 25 24 94 70 17 29 1/2 OVC001 R
NWWW 13/2200 973.9 24 24 100 80 20 33 1/2 OVC001 R
NWWW 13/2100 984.1 27 25 89 80 15 31 3/4 SCT001 OVC006 R
NWWW 13/2033 986.1 25 23 89 80 13 22 2 SCT006 OVC015 R
NWWW 13/2000 988.8 27 23 79 80 10 18 6 FEW003 SCT020 OVC043

[Manukau heads obs]

i do like the graphical plots
you can actualy get my software (weather display) to use a metar to update its data....someome is doing that for 300 metars!
anyway, amazing how fast erica moved! (which enabled it to maintain its intensity)..imagine if it moved more SSE, could have been another whahine!
or would have been interesting to see how it intereracted with the weak easterly trough now developing..
it was as if new caledonia gave it a sling shot....but i guess it was the jet stream that pushed it along fast, yes?

[GraemeWi]

A new one just starting to think about developing 300nm north of Suva...suggested track is towards Tonga by the looks of it.

It's been a while since we've seen a (ex)cyclone in our neck of the woods!

G

[Michael]

Have we ever had a full blown cyclone in NZ? ie not an extra tropical one?
Perhaps Gazell in 1968 before it hit the southerly or Ida in the far north in 1959? or the 1936 one?