NZ Weather Forum

Looking like a messy week ahead with cold winds and those bloody SW winds .
Looks to be fine one day then showery the next but Thursday is a possable chance for storms which I see John has a (4) on for Thursday .
Check out storm planets website as we all know they have been having some awsome storms there over the past week but hey it's gotta be worth the wait maybe an early Xmas pressie .
It's quite funny Davids reaction on one of the storms videos he's done mind you I sound abit like that when iam watching a Thunderstorm alot more swear words than anything .
Here's to a week ahead and to continue this post.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

I'm thinking Friday and into the weekend with very nice upper cold air. Thursday as far as I can see may work but we'll have to have good heating etc before the change comes through, otherwise I'm not hopefull of Thursday. But yeah, Friday and Saturday look interesting!!

This SW flow is annoying but I see it could be 21dg here in Canterbury on Wednesday finally some warm weather although it was 20dg yesterday but not for long as that SW came through with nothing but dull cloudy skies.
What are the chaces of this bloody low in the southern ocean being pushed away? because there's a few lows in the Tasman so iam hoping we get rid of the SW flows soon .
Whats Christmas day looking like over the whole country anyone know? .
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

[quote="Jasestrm"]
Whats Christmas day looking like over the whole country anyone know? .
quote]

Saturday 25th December has GFS maps show clearing showers over much of the nation as a RIDGE builds.


While this is still 12 days away, an incoming high pressure zone is likely.
Hopefully this sticks!!

Boxing day looks heaps better.

That Chart dose not look right to me Foggy, I dont like the look of the Ridge across the South Island.
At this stage it looks like a West -SouthWest flow over NZ on Xmas Day so thats mostly dry weather.

Usually I dont mind what its like on Christmas day as youre usually doing other things but boxing day etc like fine weather

Some nice heavy rain showing up on Met Services radar at 7pm which I can now see it rolling in from the SW some smallish CU hidden behind it as well. HMM be intersting to see what it produces nice and showery looking though still NE here no Darn SW yet not that I want it .
Whats it like over your way Aaron?.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

A few spits in central Chch this evening.

Very interesting clouds out there but of course nothing stormy looking but still intersting no rain as of yet and hardly a breath of wind it's amazing havn't seen the wind so calm in weeks .
I identified one cloud myself as the giants ribs because they look a little like ribs and they also are very big so yeah giants ribs .
I actually have a pic I took a while ago of some giants ribs looking cloud which actually shows up better than this one.
One of the photo's below is of a cloud which sorta looked a little like a horseshoe funnel cloud but my imaginations just ran a little too farr .
Tell me what you think it looks like?.
And of course the usual beautiful sunset out towards the SW.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

Does anyone know why this post is so big? there must be a way of re sizing it surly? .
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

Jasestrm wrote:Does anyone know why this post is so big? there must be a way of re sizing it surly? .
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

\

It's because of that huge weather map that Foggy posted.

I agree with Michael, I don't care what it is like on Christmas Day (as long as there are no thunderstorms about) as I'm involved with other activities on that day, fami ly etc.

JohnGaul
NZTS

My bad, i should've chosen the lower dpi option

Nothing over my way Jason unfortunately.

Interesting that that (yes, I meant to have two "thats" ) big cloud sheet sort of broke up, there's still high cloud up there but it doesn't look as bad as it did on sat pics.

who in all honesty actually goes to the beach on christmas day?
why would you want to when your sposed to be eating food and then lay out on the couch cos your too fat.
so i hope it rains everywhere.

dogmelon wrote:who in all honesty actually goes to the beach on christmas day?
why would you want to when your sposed to be eating food and then lay out on the couch cos your too fat.
so i hope it rains everywhere.

if it rained I wouldnt really care, in fact it really doesnt bother me what the weather is like on christmas day, as long as there is no thunderstorms

Latest GFS charts show HOT Northwesterlies for all of the South Island and fine weather for much of the North Island and light winds for Boxing Day

I hope it sticks!

Latest GFS charts show HOT Northwesterlies for all of the South Island and fine weather for much of the North Island and light winds for Boxing Day

I hope it sticks!

Now that'd be a big change from what we've been getting so far this summer.

(MetService Long-range forecast)
Saturday

Showers spreading to most North Island areas, with some heavy thundery falls likely. Cold and showery over the South Island with snow to low levels, but clearing in the west.

Is this really December? Could be biking in the snow from Ranfurly to Middlemarch - must take some really warm clothes.

dogmelon wrote:who in all honesty actually goes to the beach on christmas day?
why would you want to when your sposed to be eating food and then lay out on the couch cos your too fat.
so i hope it rains everywhere.

Well said

JohnGaul
NZTS

Looking not bad weather coming up in terms of storms maybe some storms on Friday at this stage for Southland,Otago,West coast,and Canterbury possible.
Yeah wouldn't surprise me if it's a gusty NW here on xmas day as it has over the last few years been a hot sorta blustery NW wind.
Actually I can remember the 2000 Christmas day when the Met Service predicted for 100kmh NW winds it turns out they were gusty but not that high only around 65-70kmh it was still warm that day with 26dg.
2003- Christmas day was warm as well with a high of 25dg and also NW.
2001- christmas day was 20dg with a 30kmh NE wind.
2002- Christmas day was 28dg with a NW wind to 65kmh (which then followed the storm buster on Boxing day with the quick storm with lightning thunder big hail and heavy rain and then cleared in behind it and became fine again).
So really NW days have dominated most of our xmas days latly and if you date back even further iam sure it will be the same as the NW winds seem to develope quite often around this time of year just not over the last few with that darn SW flow .
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.
North Canterbury the better side of the waimak

snow to low levels

I've just been thinking - what does the term 'low levels' actually mean in
MetService terminology? Personally, I'd use the term for below 300m, so if that's also MetService's definition, then they're predicting an unusually cold outbreak for December.

Its probaby relative to the season ie a day of 18c in February is a cold day wheres in June its warm

tich wrote:

snow to low levels

I've just been thinking - what does the term 'low levels' actually mean in
MetService terminology? Personally, I'd use the term for below 300m, so if that's also MetService's definition, then they're predicting an unusually cold outbreak for December.

Notice on the sattelite the first warm front has already crossed NZ which it wasn't meant to have until 6pm today must be a little faster than predicted.
Someone on the radio said it was black out towards the SW but it doesn't look black to me all I can see is clearing low clouds and blue sky here.
Still looking forward to this Friday .
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

I don't know why but it feels kind've warm outside. It is NE outside and the clouds do have that low NE look to them but the've actually got a bit of height to them aswell, the NE isn't that strong today. I guess the fact the dewpoint is higher makes a difference, a quote from Gary Roberts website:

Heat Index is the opposite of wind chill. It combines the effects of heat and humidity: warm temperatures feel even warmer when it is humid and cooler when it's dry.

I don't thinking anything today though as upper is too warm, we'd have to get a dewpoint of 15 and a temp of 20 to have anything today!

Temp at the moment is around 16 C, it just feels warmer than the past few days.

Yes Jason, Friday looks promising.

tich wrote:

snow to low levels

I've just been thinking - what does the term 'low levels' actually mean in
MetService terminology? Personally, I'd use the term for below 300m, so if that's also MetService's definition, then they're predicting an unusually cold outbreak for December.

As far as Blueskies goes, we would say snow to 200m, then anything below that we would say snow to low levels.

I cant see any 850 temps much colder than about -1 in the next 7 days, so snow to 1000m or a little below is all that looks likely...