Dec 30th/31st, Jan 1st storms, New Zealand!

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Thunder
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Dec 30th/31st, Jan 1st storms, New Zealand!

Unread post by Thunder »

Looks very good for storms coming up.

This Thursday dewpoints will be quite high along the SI east coast possibly getting to 15/16 degrees. Shear is excellent meaning possible vorticity in the air meaning possible tornadoes?? The setup looks good at this stage for some afternoon action indeed on Thursday. I haven't looked too much at Friday yet but the broad area of low pressure and associated cold upper air means something looks likely somewhere, and possibly saturday but I'm not really sure about that one. Not the coldest upper air on Thusday (will be -20/-22C so not bad) but the good ground temps and dewpoints should conteract this, it's relative.

Above is stated at this stage and Thursday is 3 days out so things could change, will be interesting to watch.

Edited: 11:05pm on Tuesday 28/12/04

Changed the title seen as thunderstorms look widespread for the same period. Perhaps people on here would prefer a different thread for NI storms v's SI ones. I can change the title again if so. Also I've added the 1st of Nov into the title incase.
Last edited by Thunder on Wed 29/12/2004 12:26, edited 3 times in total.
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Aaron Wilkinson
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Unread post by spwill »

Yes Aaron, widespread afternoon convection showers look likely later in the week and I'm sure you will get Thunderstorms in Canterbury.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I have nothing up for this week but something could happen at any moment. :D
A lovely fine day today but I did notice in any cloud that did form, there was that tornadic format to it :) :)
Stay toooooooooooooond, chewnd, whatever :)

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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: A lovely fine day today but I did notice in any cloud that did form, there was that tornadic format to it :) :)
Stay toooooooooooooond, chewnd, whatever :)

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Cant say I saw any of those clouds today john?? :?
smoking again :P :lol:
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

03 Stormchaser wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: A lovely fine day today but I did notice in any cloud that did form, there was that tornadic format to it :) :)
Stay toooooooooooooond, chewnd, whatever :)

JohnGaul
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Cant say I saw any of those clouds today john?? :?
smoking again :P :lol:
There was a lot of 'twisting and turning' at any cloud formation today especially as the Ne was forming :)
..,some pointing downward..this was noticed around 11am whilst drinking tea and eating those little leftover Christmas tart thingys?..

...anyway, I don't smoke, I just fume :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: ;) ...and fart whilst videoing thunderstorms in Wanaka :-w

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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Yeah they were but those clouds were but specks in the the sky, so small to merit a mention!
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Aaron, you are quite right about the moisture. There will be alot of moisture hanging around in that low over the country with high potential for some good afternoon cb's inland, over both Islands, 30th-31st.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

03 Stormchaser wrote:Yeah they were but those clouds were but specks in the the sky, so small to merit a mention!
No cloud is too small to hint on something going on in the atmosphere, my friend 8) :)

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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

NZstorm wrote:Aaron, you are quite right about the moisture. There will be alot of moisture hanging around in that low over the country with high potential for some good afternoon cb's inland, over both Islands, 30th-31st.
Yes, I'm looking at for high potential for thunderstorms at the end of this week, this depending on timing and where/when things will happen.
Should be a bit of thunder (sheet lightning) accompanying this band of very heavy rain moving onto the West Coast from tonight :)

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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yeah back from small holiday up at Huranui glad we had nice weather :D got a little burn't especially yesterday it was up over the 20's up there yesterday.
Had some Trout on line but they were very chosey about the lures we had so I didn't manage to catch any myself :( but few others did that were there which they managed 4 trout with a nice 5 pounder :D .
Also went ealing last night at 11pm caught a biggy probly size of half a surfbord if that helps. :? 8)
Yeah sounded like an awsome TS down south on boxing day of course being camping I didn't know about it.
So not bad for a 2 night camp.
Some really heavy rain on the way for SI and NI tomora and tonight on west coast have to watch those catchments :shock: .
I can see the unstable air arriving at the end of the week so I know exactly what you mean Aaron.
So hopefully some TS.
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Unread post by GreggWard »

Looking great for you guys down south for tomorrow afternoon.
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I have never seen heavy risk for Canterbury!!
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Unread post by Thunder »

I've never seen heavy risk either!

And I've never seen high risk! lol. Well, I thought I saw it at one point for Canterbury.....

But yeah, hopefully a good one tomorrow afternoon. Batteries are charged, sort of! Gotta get my new temperature plus barometer plus altimeter watch working for tomorrow! Will be interesting to see how it works, will require the rest of this afternoon to figure out though how to use. :D
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Unread post by NZstorm »

I am heading back to AK this arvo, so will miss what looks to be a good opportunity to chase storms tomorrow. If I was still here, I would head for the McKenzie country I think. Could be low cloud nearer the coast.
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Unread post by GraemeWi »

NZstorm wrote:I am heading back to AK this arvo, so will miss what looks to be a good opportunity to chase storms tomorrow. If I was still here, I would head for the McKenzie country I think. Could be low cloud nearer the coast.
I'll organise some strong wind and drizzle for your arrival here ;) The weather looks great (not very nice) from my desk at work!

Cheers,

G
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

wind gusting to 37 knots here at the moment from the NNE, averaging 30 knots at times,rain now moving into the bay of islands, and lighter rain further south
forecast is for gusts to 50 knots by tonight, so a hum dinger NE, first in a long time!
makes a change from the SWer!
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Unread post by tich »

Strong, gusty northeasterly at Muriwai Beach today, with the odd brief shower in morning. Rain set in properly about midafternoon (when I was in central Akl) and hasn't let up.
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Unread post by Michael »

We may do if warm NW air flows behind the front before the low dives to the SE ;)
NZstorm wrote:I am heading back to AK this arvo, so will miss what looks to be a good opportunity to chase storms tomorrow. If I was still here, I would head for the McKenzie country I think. Could be low cloud nearer the coast.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Back in Auckland. Raining when I left, raining for my return. ;)

I thought Canterbury was looking particularly green, more like the Waikato usually looks.

The 31st/01st have some convective promise for the North Island.
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Nice Mamatus

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Seen some nice Bubbling Mamatus cloud to E-NE of me this evening classic example of TS to follow or in Australian or American terms possable tornadoes.
Hope you enjoy these pics it's not very often you will see these clouds in canterbury.
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Unread post by Fujita Phil »

Now not to put you wrong Jason, but only to check my own limited knowledge... I just wanted to ask if fact those were a type of altocumulus, maybe "Mackerel Sky" (thus looking like the scales on a Mackerel) instead, where as mammatus would be probably lower in the sky looking a bit more like this...

just a thought :?

but yes correct, still a sign of thunderstorm to come...
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I think ur right phil
;)
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Unread post by Willoughby »

MetService have now said localised flooding is likely to effect the Whakatane district again ](*,)

The Waikato river is set to rise a lot
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Jason's mammatus photo is altocumulus. It's just part of a decaying front over Canterbury under NW conditions. Nothing to do with instability in this instance.

A number of cloud forms can produce mammatus, mainly Altocumulus and Cumulonimbus. And yes, in USA, mammatus is often seen on the side of severe thunderstorms.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

on xmas I visited the whakatane station
and re rewired the sensors with twisted pair shielded cable, which needs to be done to that weather station type to avoid data spikes,and its now working just dandy:
http://www.tokaanuskihire.co.nz/whakata ... eather.htm
heavy rain just started there now just before 6am
Last edited by Manukau heads obs on Thu 30/12/2004 08:40, edited 1 time in total.
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