TS possable This weekend ( 8-9th January)

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 03/01/2005 20:31

Hey everyone bak from an intersting new years stay at the west coast I was in Westport and about 8-900 people all gatherd around the big clock as the bag pipes played and the 2005 ticked over.
Yeah anyway looks like possable TS for Otago/Canterbury tomorrow as a low moves in from the Tasman of course depending if we get some fine spells here in Canterbury as if to wether we get any TS with that upper level cloud clearing quick enough but Otago looks good with sun breaking through early.
Tuesday looks better with the low situated closer which there should be TS over eastern parts of SI and maybe west coast and maybe even parts of NI.
Friday 9th January is pretty far out but there's probly a moderate chance over the country there.
Expected to be into 20's across much of NZ tomora

with 21dg expected here wether the TS will play ball we will have to see.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 03/01/2005 21:51

Yes it looks good tomorrow I hope!

Dewpoints should be good unless a NW or westerly kicks in. Best storm activity will be somewhere between Ashburton and Dunedin (not particularily on the coast, anywhere in general) where the temps are highest early on. GFS and AVN are plotting the Timaru / Rangitata area to be looking good because of the higher forecasted temps on the models but we'll have to see. If they do occur in that area shear is looking good! Good to great low level shear and great upper shear but not the best directional wise. We'll have to see but it could create vorticity in the air?? We'll have to see what it does, I like this quote from Steven W's website:

Damaging tornadoes such as the Motonui tornado are caused by unstable air accompanied by strong wind shear through the lower atmosphere. The wind shear creates vorticity which leads to the formation of a mesocyclone within the cumulonimbus cloud. A mesocyclone is a column of voilently rotating air within the Cumulonimbus. From this rotation a tornado maybe spawned.

Tomorrow lower wind shear is between 20 to 25 knots (from just above 900mb - which means closer to the surface) which is in the catergory of being great (surface itself isn't great at 12 knt's but it picks up just above there which is still ok) but further south of Timaru it drops off but then if you go north instability isn't as good so it's a delicate balance as to if anything will happen tornado wise I think. So we'll see what happens.

Something like last week on Thursday could happen where a S came in and brought all this low crud in and killed everything but this time the low isn't broad enough at this stage I'm thinking to do that, it'll be a NW that kills things I'm guessing or not enough cloud clearance to allow heating, otherwise, horaay for storms!

I guess storms can happen anywhere on the SI eastern areas tomorrow but the most interesting ones will be in areas mentioned above I think.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 03/01/2005 22:27

Cant see much happening in Canty on Tuesday guys, but Wednesday looks very promising. Could be some good storms going off in Southland and Otago both days.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 03/01/2005 23:21

I havent read any of the above posts yet but I thought I would get in quick after looking at models etc
Tomorrow looks like it will be a 1 but wednesday could be more fruitful with a 3

JohnGaul
NZTS

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Tue 04/01/2005 09:23

Thundery sky this morning with lots of Ac Castellanus around. Sunny with 3/8th cloud and temp 13 degrees with a 2 kt NE at 0900. I see Lifted Index - 1.1 at Invercargill airport at midnight last night.

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Tue 04/01/2005 09:24

Off to Alex and Central Otago today so will comment later on my findings

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 04/01/2005 09:45

hmmm dont really know what will happen today, or tomorrow for that matter!! It is NE at the moment with a dew point of 13! temp around the 16C mark it also rained this morning (just started again), but with this NW I just dont no, is it possible a convergance will happen like what happened in Timaru??

I also see we (CHCH) have no thunderstorm warning here!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 04/01/2005 11:26

Looks like there's quite a bit of high/medium level cloud crossing the South with that low which will subdue convection but some Tstorms should still develop.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 04/01/2005 11:47

The high cloud seems to be slowly clearing

and temp is sitting at 17dg currently but iam looking at this stage at a low chance of TS here in Canterbury today so at this point it's a (1) but that may change.
Tomorrow as others mention looks ok we will have to see although met service funny enough doesn't have TS on forecast here tomora now

I guess we will have to see what the weather will do in the next few days and hope TS play thier part over much of SI.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 04/01/2005 12:32

The LI at midnight at Invercargill was around +3. The -1 will be a forecast.

There is certainly the moisture over Otago and Southland to make cb development possible today, if there is sufficient thermal destabilsation.
A few hours of good surface heating.

Surface heating also plays the important role of stimulating a sea breeze.

Same situation for tomorrow. Any destabilisation will be correlated to amount of cloud cover/insolation.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 04/01/2005 12:56

Looks like a weak Ridge will cross the far South tomorrow.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 04/01/2005 16:55

The Invercargill midday sounding has the 500mb temp at -21C, LI -0.4.
Shame it is so overcast and cool down that way.

Looks like a weak Ridge will cross the far South tomorrow.

The ridge will bring in colder low level air which will stabilise the atmosphere.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 04/01/2005 18:12

NZstorm wrote:
The ridge will bring in colder low level air which will stabilise the atmosphere.

...not looking very good

3 tomorrow cancelled

JohnGaul
NZTS

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Tue 04/01/2005 18:16

Don't worry I'm down there next Tuesday and Wednesday, and I always bring 'oppisite' weather to wherever I visit. Colds snaps / unseasonal rain / have you guys had an ex-tropical cyclone recently?

Cheers,

G

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Tue 04/01/2005 19:58

Looked great this morning when the sun was out but it soon misted over here and we become drizzley from the N to NE.

That then turned to constant rain with about 8mm falling. We have just had a clearance from the rain and a little blue sky showing at a edge of the clouds to the northwest. The cloud there is showing great Mammatus and out to the west some really large buildups have appeared.

A rumble was just heard and unfortunately the clouds are a little outside my cameras zoom

. Harvey Norman might get a sale tomorrow

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 04/01/2005 20:01

Still I wouldnt rule out a night storm tonight, wether overhead or out on the alps!! keep ur fingers crossed

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 04/01/2005 20:13

Saw this at Met Soc website photo comp. what is it??

http://metsoc.rsnz.govt.nz/photos2/Mvc009f.jpg

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 04/01/2005 20:31

03 Stormchaser wrote:Saw this at Met Soc website photo comp. what is it??

http://metsoc.rsnz.govt.nz/photos2/Mvc009f.jpg

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Tue 04/01/2005 20:56

Back from my travels to Central. Numerous Cb's built up to east this morning. Found a torrential shower west of Omakau at 1400 from a vigourous Cb. Observed lightning from the same shower cloud 15 minutes later . Numerous Cb's developing everwhere by 1600. Drove back to Southland at 5pm and the western horizon was getting very dark. Numerous spherics on the radio. Thunderstorm in Invercargill from 1900 -1920 hours. Now continuous heavy rain as I type this.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 04/01/2005 21:33

Photo of the day, looking toward the alps just in behind Templeton!

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Tue 04/01/2005 22:10

I went and had a look tonight. Drove up over Flagstaff, facing down the Taieri and took a few shots. A bit late for the evening sun to get any great shots.

Best I could muster...

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 04/01/2005 22:45

Lot of crackling/sferix on radio now.(from 10:30m onwards)
Can't see where lightning is, even though I did climb up our Walnut tree for a look to the south.
Totally clear skies here except for some Cu down to the south.
Presumably that is where the lightning is.
According to Steven Graham Boltex, lots of lightning going off

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 04/01/2005 23:43

That lightning is off the coast from Waitaki and there is quite a bit of it but it isn't near Chch unfortunately. Nice amounts of lightning in Southland and then on and off the Waitaki coast areas aswell tonight which is where all that crackeling will be coming from John.

Lol Gary.

Great to hear you got something Chris!

This weekend coming up is something to look forward to! Bugger about today and tomorrow now doesn't look very good with the cold pool not coming near Canterbury and staying south, I do see on Fencepost thunderstorms are possible in South Canterbury in the afternoon so we'll see. I guess the temps could be quite high. Down south looks possible again though. Just looking at the skew t if the temp does get to 27 the dewpoint will have to be around a minimum of 15 for storms to happen, I wonder if they can really develop tomorrow. We're talking 500mb temps of only -13, something odd's going to have to happen for that to pull off. Has it got something to do with elevated regions? (inland areas perhaps?) But I guess in theory if the temps and dewpoints are high enough it could happen. Today looked as if it had a better chance than tomorrow does, but perhaps shear won't be strong tomorrow?? I just don't know, ummm......Tony, why possible thundery showers tomorrow? I understand Ange might be forecasting though so if so that's cool. I guess in the depths of South canterbury it's possible with -15 temps at 500mb. I'm confused. Can it happen!!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 04/01/2005 23:49

Just seen a few flashes behind/beyond the Port Hills

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 05/01/2005 00:22

Ha, your right John. Just went on to the roof and noticed some very distant flashes from what looks like way on the other side of the peninsula. I just wonder where it's coming from. Look at the lateset weatherzone sat pic (midnight). I don't really see any Cb there except for off the Waitaki Coast as I said above, could we really be seeing flashes from way down there? There is a thin band of cloud over the Birdlings flat area where some lightning is on the tracker but I'm not sure? Here's a free lightning thing I uploaded after midnight so you can see where it shows the lightning.