NZ Weather Forum

Aaron dont no if you have this weather station link, but its the Lyttelton port weather station that updates every minute.

http://www.lpc.co.nz/RP.jasc?session=D4 ... age=N150P2

Bugger about those strikes

Looks like there was only a hand full though!

Cool looking severe thunderstorm forecast from metservice today, and moderate around that for the Nelson area. I'm thinking of the possibility of a thunderstorm happening here today. Sunny patches are breaking through and it's up to around 18C. It's also a light ENE here so perhaps a convergence could develop? We'll see.

Total totals are very good for 1pm today so I would think that means the atmosphere is unstable? It's 50 for alot of the South Island, I guess where ever these storms will happen there will need to be a trigger in the form of good heating or convergence or a combination of the two. Yes the further north you go the slightly upper colder air provides a better chance of storms, but we'll see what happens today. Shear is absolutley zilch with hardly any wind throughout the atmosphere meaning storms will go up and pretty much not move by the looks of things. But it hasn't happened yet, just a wait and see at this point.

Aaron, I think the problem for convection in Canterbury today is that it will remain too cool and cloudy to get some positive CAPE (instability). And thats why Met Service would have left the region out of the thunderstorm risk area. Sheltered areas further north such as Nelson will get the sunshine and afternoon heating to trigger Isolated cb's.

North Island is looking quite possible tomorrow. Some left over moisture, cooling aloft(due to advancement of trough) and strong daytime heating, will trigger a few afternoon cb's.

1.30pm update
Some T/Cu around Auckland today. This mornings sounding indicates cumulus tops possible to 3000m.

NZstorm wrote:Aaron, I think the problem for convection in Canterbury today is that it will remain too cool and cloudy to get some positive CAPE (instability). And thats why Met Service would have left the region out of the thunderstorm risk area. Sheltered areas further north such as Nelson will get the sunshine and afternoon heating to trigger Isolated cb's.

North Island is looking quite possible tomorrow. Some left over moisture, cooling aloft(due to advancement of trough) and strong daytime heating, will trigger a few afternoon cb's.

1.30pm update
Some T/Cu around Auckland today. This mornings sounding indicates cumulus tops possible to 3000m.

looks like some sort of convection north of CHCH

Well maybe no lightning over Chch but to the north and east of me it looks dark. There's been a NE here but just now a southerly has come through so there is some sort of convergence out there, and it's been warm at around 17 to 18 degrees where I am but it looks to be cooling now with the light S coming through. The latest weatherzone sat pic has development over the Hamner area so the guts of it could be there. Still no strikes on the tracker yet.

Pic just taken:

Yes Aaron, I am picking up a few distant sferix but nothing is showing up on the lightning tracker. Cloudy and southerly through here now but earlier it had that "trying to go back to the Ne" feeling about it.
By the way I had 28mm of rain to 9am this morning. A good drop indeed

JohnGaul
NZTS

4pm satellite indicates storms over the ranges of North Canterbury/north Westland.

Cloudy,22C,dewpoint 14C in Auckland with some afternoon Cu about, photo below.

and showers now over the North Shore from a convergence zone.

photo of Cu near here 5min ago.

From the northern Waitakares I can see the line of cloud and showers to the east, most likely offshore in the Hauraki Gulf (probably afffecting Waiheke Island), which has been sitting there for several hours. It's still sunny here.

Back to Chch tomorrow afternoon, just as the weather looks like settling down over the northern North Island (and NZ as a whole). Well there have been at least a few reasonably fine days while I've been up here.

Photo below shows Cu Congestus + shower south of here this Evening.

Yes the sky looked a lot like that today here too but mostly dry.

Wow!, I love that last pic Spwill! It looks awsome how you've got the profile of the Cu congestus from top to bottom and showing the rain coming out onto the land, really cool.

Nice other shots to. So were they to around 3000m? Maybe higher?

There looks to be enough instability over the North Island today for a few afternoon thunderstorms south of Auckland. Auckland will see more showers too.

Some big buildups already over aucks. Metservice say that T/S is not expected in Auckland today, but we shall see.

Is it likely that some sea breezes could cause some action today?

happy new year to everyone too. I've been away for the last 2.5 weeks.

Hope everyone is safe and that the Tsunami's didn't affect anyone directly.

Metservice say that T/S is not expected in Auckland today, but we shall see.

Got a heavy shower about 11.45am in the Remuera area.
Showers looked to haved cleared now though with fine conditions 22C.

I expect a few cb's to pop up over the Waikato and further inland after 3pm.

Photo below shows a cloud build up South of here.

Already some lightning showing up sth of Hamilton and nth Taranaki.. (metservice lightning)
It's showing much further away on my detector, so I would say it's low and not too strong yet..

Yes 12.30 a thunderstorm/Cb rocked in from the Southwest and caused large raindrops, rolling thunder, then sharp loud claps
Heading North-northeast, still showering.

Through central Hamilton I might add...

Morning convective showers have moved on .
Photo below shows a heavy shower forming to the SW of Auckland this morning.

Great photo's Spwill.

Yes you always seem to bust out the greatest photos

Another convective shower is likely within the next 20 mins from the south.

22c currently with a light S wind

Yes you can see another two cloud cells lining up in the SW part of the Waikato, in the attached image, with possibly something more sinister lurking further south.

Spwill, I like the panorama. Excellent. The sounding indicates that cloud top to be around 4500m.

Cb tops to SE, but not the cloud development I was expecting today.
The coldest upper air has remained well south, over the southern North Island.

Wellington 500mb temp -21C, Auckland -15C.