RSMC Nadi have issued their first advisory this arvo of a possible developing TC, ESE of Fiji....
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/0204 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.9S 177.2W
AT 230000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND
DEVELOPING.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM
WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK.
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 230800 UTC OR EARLIER.
ABPW10 PGTW 230030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/230030Z-230600ZMAR2011//
RMKS/
---
2. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NEAR 17.4S 176.2W,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 176.8W, 330NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 25 KTS FROM
PGTW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
IMPROVING AND THE SUBSIDENCE PREVIOUSLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK IS EASING. A 221757Z WINDSAT PASS REVEALS
A MORE CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC, WITH 20-25 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLIES
FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. NADI, FIJI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 2 MB 24 HR
PRESSURE FALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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This TD has become very well organised overnight. Looks like it should be named today...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/1403 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20.0S 177.8W AT
231200 UTC MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM
BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND WITH
DECREASING SHEAR ALONG PROJECTED PATH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOLLOWED
BY A SOUTHERLY TRACK.
POTENTIAL FOR TD13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 232000 UTC OR EARLIER.
WTPS22 PGTW 230930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 20.7S 178.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230832Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 178.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 177.5W,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KTS FROM PGTW AT 23/0832Z. 23/0000Z
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE,
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW. INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC IS EVIDENT ON A 23/0708Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. DUE TO INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240930Z.//
NNNN
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if it keeps on moving in a SSW direction long enough before turning more S
then it might pass close enough to the NI to affect us....
if the high moves in fast, then it will run into that and produce a squash zone easterlies
that is what happened to Bola (which then drifted west)
JTWC have recognised this as TC 19P. RSMC Nadi have yet to name it...
WTPS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 179.5W.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 230921Z
MAR 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 230930).
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION
AND CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 231822Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE REVEALS ABUNDANT CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS
SUPPRESSED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
SHOWS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENHANCING OUTFLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM
OVER THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH IS ALSO CAUSING SOME
INHIBITION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
OVERALL 19P EXISTS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 19P
IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE
TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LLCC, WHICH WILL RESUME A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE TROUGH PASSES AFTER TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY,
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY MOVING OVER BRISBANE, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AFTER BY TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET.
//
NNNN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/2010 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20.5S 179.0W AT
231800 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO BE
30 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
THE DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLANK
OF THE DEPRESSION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND MAITAINING A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR TD13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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Seems JTWC may have jumped the gun again. RSMC Nadi estimate max 10-minute average winds at only 30 kts. JTWC's estimate of 35 kt 1-minute average winds generally works out to about 30 kts when converted to 10-minute average winds.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/0148 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [995HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.1S 179.5W AT
240000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 7 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW EVIDENT BOTH TO THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH OF THE
DEPRESSION. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.45 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL,
GIVING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
THE SYSTEM AND MAITAINING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 240800 UTC.
TC Bune was named by RSMC Nadi earlier this evening...
Special Weather Bulletin Number SIX FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
BUNE. ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 5:58pm on Thursday the 24th of March 2011
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU
GROUP IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 990 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21 DECIMAL 0
SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU
OR ABOUT 365 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 4PM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KM/HR FURTHER AWAY FROM FIJI.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/0800 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 1 CENTRE [990HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.1S
179.9W AT 240600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL
MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. PRIMARY
BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY
NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED
BAND PATTERN WITH 0.65 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM AND MAITAINING A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
---
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TPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 002//
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 179.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 240654Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 240538Z SSMIS AS WELL AS THE 240654Z SSMIS
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND ABRF. TC 19P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. NEAR TAU 72, TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS SUPPORT
THIS TRACK TO INCLUDE UKMO, GFS, GFDN, ECMWF AND WBAR, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE
SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120 THAT
SOMEHOW STEERS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD DESPITE THE DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
TO THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH. THE UKMO AND GFDN MODELS HAVE INDICATED A
WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 BUT HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS FORECAST IS
POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, WHICH APPEAR MORE REALISTIC. PEAK INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE FAVORABLE SST, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 72, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TC 19P IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/1423 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 2 CENTRE [983HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.3S
179.9W AT 241200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. CYCLONE
INTENSIFYING. WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH RAGGED EYE WARMING AND CONVECTIVE TOPS
COOLING. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM BUT GOOD
ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. BUNE IS BEING STEERED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY WEAK NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH A DG EYE IN LG SURROUND YIELDING
DT=5.0, MET=3.5 AND PT=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM, SLOWLY MOVING IT AND MAITAINING A
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/2007 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 982HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S
179.9W AT 241800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NE QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80
NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW
QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT
occurring IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
BUNE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY WEAK NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.9 DEGREE
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, GIVING OF DT=3.5. MT AND PT ALSO SUGGEST 3.5,
THEREFORE T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WHILE MAINTAINING A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERLY TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
---
WTPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 003//
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 179.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241810Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE REVEALS
EXTENSIVE CURVED BANDING AROUND THE LLCC AS WELL AS A PERSISTENT
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
CYCLONE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
ENHANCING OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SOME SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH TAU 72. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER, SLOW MOVEMENT OVER A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAP THE
INTENSIFICATION OF TC 19P AFTER TAU 24. AROUND TAU 72, TC 19P WILL
TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD
TURN, TC 19P WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER A COOLER SEA SURFACE. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU
120, TC 19P WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A STORM FORCE LOW
NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND WITH THE SUPPORT OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC
DEVELOPMENT FACTORS. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK, BUT INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LAG
EXPECTED CONDITIONS. PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS
BY TAU 24 DUE TO ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, PASSAGE OVER
WARM WATER, AND THE RECENT TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN
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Yes, could be interesting, although I'm amazed by the amount of people here that seem to think we're going to be 'hit by a cyclone this weekend'. LOL
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/2226 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 975HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6S
179.7W AT 242100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 2
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
BUNE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY WEAK NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH LG SURROUND AND MG
CENTRE WITH AN ELONGATED EYE, GIVING DT=4.5. MT AND PT SUGGEST 4.0,
THEREFORE T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS DUE TO CONSTRAINTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WHILE MAINTAINING A SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 250900 UTC 22.1S 179.8W MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 252100 UTC 22.5S 179.8E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 260900 UTC 22.9S 179.4E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 262100 UTC 23.3S 178.9E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 250200 UTC.
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/0744 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 970HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4S
179.2W AT 250600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS BY 260600 UTC.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD
ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. BUNE HAS ADOPTED A
SLIGHT SOUTHEAST TRACK IN THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON AN
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LG SURROUND, GIVING DT=4.5, MET=4.5 AND
PT=4.0. THEREFORE T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 22.9S 179.5W MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 23.2S 179.9W MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.7S 179.2E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 24.4S 178.8E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
WTPS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 004//
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 179.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 19P HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS REMAINED FRAGMENTED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND
CONVERGENT FLOW. A 250554Z CORIOLIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 170W AND EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. BASED ON
THE CORIOLIS IMAGE, TC 19P HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWARD AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS TRACK. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER, SLOW MOVEMENT
OVER A SHALLOW LAYER OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST (27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAP THE
INTENSIFICATION OF TC 19P AFTER TAU 24. AROUND TAU 72, TC 19P WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALL OF WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN AS
A 45-55 KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/2001 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 967HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 22.6S 179.6W AT 251800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AT ABOUT 1 KNOT. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. BUNE REMAINS SLOW MOVING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING
EVIDENT APART FROM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH A WRAP
OF 1.1 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, GIVING DT=4.0. MT AND PT ALSO SUGGEST 4.0,
THEREFORE T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BUNE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION DURING EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TASMAN SEA
THIS WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY FOR A PERIOD AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 23.1S 179.8E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.7S 179.2E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 24.7S 178.8E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 25.8S 179.3E MOV SE AT 9 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
BUNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 260200 UTC.
WTPS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005//
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 179.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 251757Z
SSMIS 37H GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TC 19P HAS SLOWLY TURNED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT HAS BUILT IN TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS FROM A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. AROUND TAU 48, TC BUNE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 72 IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 48, WHEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN
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Think that was NOGAPS, although any movement looks marginal? Has also weakened a little today - down to Cat 2...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 26/0121 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 977HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9S
179.8W AT 260000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS/EIR IMAGERY.
CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS,
THOUGH SOME REDEVELOP APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING DURING THE PAST 3
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. BUNE REMAINS SLOW MOVING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING
EVIDENT APART FROM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH A WRAP
OF 0.9 ON A LOG 10 SPIRAL, GIVING DT=3.5. MT AND PT ALSO SUGGEST 3.5,
THEREFORE T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BUNE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL
TRANSITION DURING MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TASMAN SEA THIS
WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY FOR A PERIOD AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS AND THEREFORE STORM FORCE WINDS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS
BUNE TRACKS NEAR THE KERMADEC ISLANDS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 23.3S 179.6E MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 24.3S 179.1E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 25.3S 178.8E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 26.8S 179.8W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 250800 UTC.
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 26/0756 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 970HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0S
180.0E AT 260600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY.
CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 02 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY
REINTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM IMPROVED AGAIN IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AFTER
SOME WEAKENING IN THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED
BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE.SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. BUNE
REMAINS SLOW MOVING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING EVIDENT APART FROM A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND MG SURROUND YEILDS
DT=4.5, MT= 4.5 AND PT=4.0, FT BASED ON DT. THEREFORE,
T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. BUNE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION
DURING MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TASMAN SEA THIS WEEKEND.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.7S 179.4E MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 24.8S 179.2E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 26.3S 179.8E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 28.0S 178.6W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 261400 UTC.
WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 006//
---
REMARKS:
260600Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 179.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED ON A 27 NM RAGGED EYE APPEARING AT
26/0532Z IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 26/0629Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE VERIFIES THIS POSITION AS WELL. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON PGTW AND PHFO DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS AHEAD OF A
MUCH STRONGER TROUGH. TC 19P IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE STR AND RESULT IN THE SYSTEM
TRACKING MORE SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36,
TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THIS FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270600Z.//
NNNN
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TC Bune has tracked alot more WSW than SW overnight and has increased in forward speed
the longer it stays on this track, the closer it will get to NZ when it does recurve SE again, yes?
^ Sure has! That's quite a noticeable push to the W overnight. Perhaps it's making up for lost time, i.e. it only just crossed the date-line yesterday evening, but earlier JTWC forecasts had it crossing much sooner. So yeah, maybe a little closer to NZ than JTWC's later forecasts...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 26/1409 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 973HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2S
179.4E AT 261200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY.
CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS
DECREASING TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 18 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TOPS
COOLING IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER A STRONG DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN MOST
QUADRANTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. BUNE REMAINS SLOW MOVING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STEERING EVIDENT APART FROM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON A EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE
AND DG SURROUND, GIVING DT=4.5. MT AND PT AGREES, THEREFORE
T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. BUNE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION
DURING MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TASMAN SEA THIS WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM
MAY REINTENSIFY FOR A PERIOD AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS AND THEREFORE
STORM FORCE WINDS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS BUNE TRACKS NEAR THE
KERMADEC ISLANDS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 24.2S 179.0E MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 25.5S 179.3E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 27.2S 179.4W MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 29.0S 177.8W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 262000 UTC.
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 26/1940 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 973HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.8S 179.2E AT 261800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS. WINDS
ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
ORGANISATION HAS GENERALLY REMAINED STEADY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS APART
FROM A PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY. SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER A
STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. BUNE REMAINS SLOW MOVING
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STEERING EVIDENT APART FROM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON A
CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 1.2 DEGREE WRAP ON A LOG10 SPIRAL, GIVING
DT=4.0. MT AND PT ALSO SUGGEST 4.0, THEREFORE T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE
ADOPTING A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BUNE
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION DURING MONDAY OR
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TASMAN SEA. THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY
FOR A PERIOD AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS AND THEREFORE STORM FORCE
WINDS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS BUNE TRACKS NEAR THE KERMADEC
ISLANDS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 25.0S 179.0E MOV S AT 6 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 26.6S 179.9E MOV SSE AT 9 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 28.3S 178.5W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 30.2S 177.0W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
BUNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 270200 UTC.
WTPS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 007//
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 179.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 261653Z SSMI 37 GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE, FROM WHICH THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65
TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS LOCATED
BENEATH AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MAINTAINS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TC BUNE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION OVER WARM WATERS
AT APPROXIMATELY 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD. BY TAU
36, TC 19P SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. TC BUNE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE RECURVATURE AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN
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Bune crossed 25°S yesterday into MetService's area of responsibility. Below is Nadi's final Advisory...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 27/0148 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 971HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.4S 179.0E AT 270000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS
VIS/EIR IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65
KNOTS. WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE
47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
BUNE HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANISED AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY WARMED AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. SYSTEM
REMAINS UNDER A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.8 DEGREE WRAP
ON A LOG10 SPIRAL, GIVING DT=3.5. MT AND PT ALSO SUGGEST 3.5,
THEREFORE T3.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS. CI MAINTAINED DUE TO RULES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BUNE IS EXPECTED
TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION DURING MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
TASMAN SEA. THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY FOR A PERIOD AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS AND THEREFORE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
AS BUNE TRACKS NEAR THE KERMADEC ISLANDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 25.7S 178.8E MOV S AT 7 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 27.4S 179.7W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 29.1S 177.8W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 31.2S 176.6W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE BUNE.
WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 008//
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 178.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKENING 40 NM CONVECTIVE BANDING EYE. ADDITIONALLY, A 270523Z SSMI
37 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
EYE, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND NFFN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 60 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN MOST QUADRANTS. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE FROM AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED OUTFLOW ON
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. FURTHER EVIDENCE
OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS APPARENT AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC BUNE HAS BEGUN ERODING AND IS ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
TC 19P SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. TC BUNE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
IT INTERACTS WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN
MetService - High Seas Forecast: Subtropic
HURRICANE WARNING 648
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone BUNE [970hPa] centre was located near 25.8 South 178.9 East at 271200 UTC.
Position Good.
Repeat position 25.8S 178.9E at 271200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving south 9 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 220 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to southwest and within 180 nautical miles of centre in the sector from southwest through northwest to north.
Forecast position near 27.2S 179.8W at 280000 UTC
and near 29.4S 177.8W at 281200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 644.
Issued at 1:31am Monday 28 March 2011
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TC Bune is moving faster SE now , and not S, as the above statements say (the problem is, by the time info gets out, things have changed)
Baroclinic leaf developing big time to the south of it
if Bune keeps moving SE at the speed it is, it will be a gone burger in no time
the models have been showing it will recurve for a while back S then SW even, bringing it closer to east cape
but that does not look likely any more (Latest GFS and ECMWF does not show that happening to the same degree anymore)
amazing how the jetstream has been split into 2 now
leaving the original part over Brisbane , that curves back up into the north tasman
then the part that moved across the NI has now been captured by TC Bune and bent around so that its now an exit jet right over the system
which I reckon is going to help maintain its strength as it does the ET transition (and amazing to see still a fully encircled (but not by warm convection Thunderstorms) low level circulation centre (i.e that is not fully exposed yet)
it could now undergo cyclogenesis (i.e the cloud bands start to spiral into the center) and deepen again
what do you guys think?
(or am I just talking a load of crap, LOL)
Manukau heads obs wrote:
what do you guys think?
(or am I just talking a load of crap, LOL)
talking about the jet stream i think that is something MS need to put on their page. Australia and USA both have it shown on the maps. its a really useful toll for making your own forecast.
