La Nina on the Wane

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Judging by recent weather models I have been checking, it looks as though La Nina , I hope I got it right as I usually get confused with the names of this weather phenomemenomomememeonememomenem, may be on the way out.
Might be good to have some thunderstorms above instead of below here in Canterbury from now, although I hope they do not hinder the recovery of ChCh in the earthquake damaged areas.
This could also ease the seismic activity under ChCh and people will say instead of "Did you feel it?" to "Did you see it?" ie. lightning flash



JohnGaul
NZThS

[Razor]

Can't say I've heard any thunder, apart from "down under" since September last year....

[Dale]

I do recall as it was all starting, our good forefathers (foreasters?) mentioned May as a turning point.. if this is the case, well done! Now im certainly no expert on the South Island.. or West Coast for that matter but yesterday was the first thunderday I have had since moving down here from Auckland.. considering it was thundering from lunchtime until dark, it made up for all the days missed Was just contemplating in bed this morning after a particularly heavy burst of rainfall if what happened yesterday is normal for over here or some one off event, I havent been through such intense rainfall since Brisbane & their summer thunderstorms.. the sheer volume of water that fell from the sky during its peak yesterday was just phenominal.

Im sure the jaffas wouldnt complain about the break from the troppo weather.. well at least the ones I know. To me, that was just the usual daily run of the mill stuff but alas, cannot please everybody ay.

[Michael]

La nina or el nino never seem to increase during the middle of the year if carried over the previous southern summer,either it starts around may or finishes.

[Razor]

Dale- while yesterday sounded action packed, its not unusual for the coast to have storms like that. I've had many a tramp in the west coast hills woth 200mm plus in a day, in fact upwards of 400m some times. Check out the Cropp River site on the West Coast Regional Council page when its raining and prepare to be blown away

http://www.wcrc.govt.nz/river_level_rai ... ummary.htm

[Dale]

Thanks for that link Razor.. one to fall back on in future

[RWood]

There is one case of La Nina increasing again after lower values in the summer - the long-running 1973-1976 one. It was weakish over the 1974-75 summer but then strengthened markedly from autumn.

[Richard]

We've just gone through one of the strongest La Nina recorded but apart from the northern areas that have been hit with flooding recently,its had little effect on most of NZ.
It does appear to me that NZ is least effected by the La Nina or El Nina fluctuations than other parts of the world going by the last few months that were predicted to have wet in eastern areas, which it hasn't.

[Andy]

We have had alot more rain here than average.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

We have had alot more rain here than average.

Your correct there, Andy.
It was very green in Central Otago when we were down there on the Rail Trail in early March

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Michael]

Dont mind la nina,this has been the most la nina the last 3 weeks even though its waning even if its wetter,its better weather overall,higher temperatures and sunshine.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I think the earthquakes here will lesson, also, as this La Nina weakons.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[RWood]

We've just gone through one of the strongest La Nina recorded but apart from the northern areas that have been hit with flooding recently,its had little effect on most of NZ.
It does appear to me that NZ is least effected by the La Nina or El Nina fluctuations than other parts of the world going by the last few months that were predicted to have wet in eastern areas, which it hasn't.

Hawkes Bay has had a substantial surplus, along with some parts of NE New Zealand.

[Manukau heads obs]

Around Methven , inland canty, its much wetter (ground conditions) than normal for the time of year, I havce been told
and there was a post just today about how green central otago is at the moment, from all the rain this year

thats a big contrast to the drought conditions those areas would be in from an el nino

[Richard]

Around Methven , inland canty, its much wetter (ground conditions) than normal for the time of year, I havce been told
and there was a post just today about how green central otago is at the moment, from all the rain this year

thats a big contrast to the drought conditions those areas would be in from an el nino

Yes in some areas but it certainly wasn't general,as it was a still dry summer around this area though its greened up nicely over the last month or so

[snowstormwatcher]

Yes has been well above average rainfall here so far this year and in most areas south of Mid Canterbury. The soil is that wet it only takes a few mm of rain to cause water to pond on my lawn. I dont really want much more rain this winter as there no growth from now and any rain will just make things muddy.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looks like La nina is trying to have another "kick in" before fading with a low moving down next week.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Richard]

looking more like an unLa Niña like frosty week coming up for us mainlanders instead now

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Latest graph from BOM in Aussie shows a dramatic decline in La Nina for May

JohnGaul
NZThS