UK Weather - Autumn 2011

[stepr]

I'm making quite a name for myself getting things wrong.. slightly embarrassing, but today the record wasn't breached, it still stands at 29.9C

[Simon Culling]

Another glorious sunny day here in Milton Keynes with a max of 27*C again. A few wisps of cirrus at times, but the wind direction had shifted to a little W of S and the max temps moved further east to East Anglia, far SE of England and the East Midlands. Max temps for Sunday 2nd Oct were:

29.3*C at RAF Coningsby (Lincs) + Santon Downham (Suffolk)
29.2*C at Waddington (Lincs)
29.0*C at Gravesend
28.9*C at Holbeach (Lincs) + Marham (Norfolk)
28.7*C at Manston (far east of Kent)
28.3*C at Heathrow

It will be warm again tomorrow in southern England, but a change to much cooler weather is coming later this week. Despite the high temperatures, it has not felt too hot as the sun is now much lower in the sky at this time of the year and does not have the power.....the longest day was over 3 months ago. These temperatures are probably about as high (thermodynamically) as is possible this late in the year. The ground is also dry and the synoptics have been constant for nearly 5 days....it may be a few years before these figures are matched again.

[Richard]

Sounds like a lovely run of warm weather Simon,are the sea temps starting to cool around the UK yet??

[Simon Culling]

It has been particularly warm for this time of year Richard, but the soil is still dry. It should be getting wet by now.

Attached is the latest SST chart (courtesy of the Met Office) for this neck of the woods. SST max would normally be in September, but I would suggest they have risen a little in the last week.

[Simon Culling]

The last of the very warm and sunny days (for the SE half of England that is) was yesterday, Monday 3rd October, although the SW breeze did pick up a fair bit.

The high pressure over Europe continued to decline and by 1800GMT Monday was an elongated 'sausage' stretching west to east from the Bay of Biscay to the Balkans with a number of centres around 1025/1027mb. A deep low (966mb) was also situated halfway between Iceland and Norway, hence the breeze.

Hottest areas were again found in the east, with maximums on Monday of:

28.3*C at RAF Coningsby (Lincs)
27.8*C at Marham (Norfolk)
27.5*C at Cranwell (Lincs) + Holbeach (Lincs) + Gravesend
27.2*C at Donna Nook (on the east coast - Yorkshire)

The morning minimums on Monday were also high, with values of 18.0*C at Weybourne (Norfolk), 17.6*C at Cranwell and 17.5*C at RAF Waddington (Lincs).

To give an idea of how windy it was, RAF Coningsby reported a SW wind of 23mph gusting 38mph for its 1400GMT observation with a temperature of 27.3*C. I bet that felt a bit like a hairdryer!!

Much cooler and cloudier today, Tuesday, with a top temp in the UK of just 21.7*C at Cavendish and 20.9*C at RAF Wattisham (both in Suffolk).

[Simon Culling]

The weather did turn much cooler from wednesday (5th) onwards with blustery and showery NW winds and daytime temps between 10-15*C across the UK. However, the mild air (this time from the SW rather than the SE) has spread back over England + Wales today (Sunday) and it is currently 21-22*C over eastern parts with an even warmer day expected tomorrow, Monday.....with more sunshine.

CET for October is currently 15.5*C (+3.3*C) up to the 8th and the EWR is just 9mm up to the 7th, way below average. The average EWR for October is 87mm.

Final CET for September came in at 15.1*C (+1.5*C), making it the first above average month since May. This made it actually warmer than the average of the three summer months (June, July and August) which was just 14.8*C. This does not happen very often.

[Simon Culling]

It has been a dull but mild week in Milton Keynes, but yesterday (Friday 14th Oct) was gloriuosly sunny and still mild with a max of 15*C. Last night was cool, with clear skies and dry ground conditions allowing a rapid fall in temperatures by Saturday morning, giving a local frost over southern England, the first of the season. Minimums include:

-2.0*C at South Newington (Oxfoedshire)
-1.6*C at Santon Downham (Suffolk)
-0.3*C at RAF Benson (Oxfordshire)
0.1*C at Shobdon Airfield (Herefordshire)
0.2*C at South Farnborough (Hampshire)

A local station near to me (Potterspury) in a shallow but rather steep Northamptonshire valley recorded a minimum of -1.7*C. The low in my garden was 3*C, but no visible ground frost here on the edge of the city. Another frost hollow at Chesham in the Chiltern hills (north of London) recorded -2.3*C.

CET for October is 15.3*C (+3.6*C) up to the 14th, with the EWR at just 25mm up to the 13th....and most of this rain has fallen in northern England.

An active cold front is forecast to push SE across the UK on Monday with a wave running NE along it, and depending on the timing of the wave, it could produce some line convection or a squall line. Much colder air to follow through much of next week, with frost becoming more frequent and widespread.

[stepr]

Chance of some isolated frost in the southeast again tonight. Meanwhile elsewhere although it will start chilly cloud will encroach so probably frost confined to southeastern areas.

met-office mention the chance of airfrost in some places.. Kent seems quite prone for frosts it would seem.

[Simon Culling]

The active cold front did indeed push SE across the UK yesterday (Monday 17th Oct), with a very clear example of line convection over northern Englsnd, but it weakened as it moved further south, but still brought some needed rain and a change to much cooler conditions. It was very windy in the NW of England (gusts to 74mph at Aberdaron (NW Wales) and 70mph at St Bee's Head (Cumbria) and at Valley (Anglesey)) and there is some evidence of a tornado at Whitehaven in Cumbria, although the damage could be due to SLW - investigations continue.

There were also some dramatic temperature falls across the front, especially in Northern Ireland in the afternoon, with the heavy rain turning to sleet or slushy wet snow in places, especially above 200m amsl. For example, at Glenanne (Co Armagh), the temperature fell from 10.6*C at 2pm to 3.3*C at 3pm.

Cool clear start to the day here in Milton Keynes this morning (Tuesday 18th) with a minimum of 5*C and still a stiff westerly breeze. Plenty of sunshine and fair weather cumumlus during the day and a max of just 12*C, the coldest day since the 12th June, which also had an afternoon max of 12*C, although it did rise to 14*C in the evening.

[Simon Culling]

A lot of rain about in this part of the globe, but not where it is needed here in the central and eastern parts of the UK. A trailing front running N-S down the west side of the UK has given a lot of rain over Eire (and N Ireland) at the weekend and a very wet day today in the same place and also in NW France, SW England and the west side of Wales. The Met Office forecast 100mm+ in these areas for today and looking at the radar returns they are not far out. The front has been re-invigorated by a deepening low moving NE then NW from the Bay of Biscay to be (at 1800GMT today, Monday 24th Oct) a twin centred low of 974mb (NW of Ireland) and 983mb (NW tip of Brittany). There is also a large High centred over W Russia of 1034mb, giving a strong southerly flow over the UK.

Rainfall totals for Eire for the 48 hours to 2400GMT on Sunday include 91.5mm at Valentia (SW tip), 48.1mm at Mace Head (W coast), 40.3mm at Belmullet (NW tip) and 23.3mm at Mullinger (County Meath, central Eire).

In contrast, it has been another dry (and ocassionally sunny) week here in Milton Keynes with temperatures around average (max's 12-15*C and min's 1-5*C). However, yesterday, Sunday 23rd, was another sunny and warm day with the mercury nearly reaching 20*C. Highest temperature recorded was 20.3*C at Pershore College (Worcs).

[Simon Culling]

It was indeed very wet over Eire and SW England and S Wales yesterday, Monday 24th Oct.

In the 24 hours to 2400GMT, 82.2mm fell at Casement Aerodrome, 71.3mm at Phoenix Park and 69.1mm at Dublin Airport, all in and around Dublin. Serious flooding has resulted in 2 casualties. At Casement, 66mm fell in 4 hours in the afternoon.

In the UK, in the 24 hours to 2100GMT, 67.2mm fell at Cardinham (Cornwall) and 54.4mm at Whitchurch (Dyfed, SW Wales) and 51.3mm at Plymouth (Devon).

NW france bore the brunt of the rain with 107.6mm at Brest.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-15442031

Edit: CET for Oct is 13.3*C (+2.3*C) up to the 24th and the EWR is just 37mm up to the 23rd....only 42% of the monthly average, although that will jump up in the next couple of days.

[stepr]

UK has just experienced a very warm October relative to the average (10.4C is the 71-00 average). There has been no word from the Met-office yet of the actual CET mean, however it is suspected it will come in around 12.7C (+2.2C), although it may finish slightly lower due to adjustments.

The Met-office released some averages on the 27th for the UK as a whole..

They give an average of 11.5C for the UK as whole, although this may have increase or decreased depending on adjustments in the last few days.

The record for the highest average in the UK is 12.2C in 2001, of which there is little chance of this falling.

[Simon Culling]

Hello stepr. October has been on the warm side....CET to the 30th was 12.7*C (+2.0) which is a little short of the record of 13.3*C set in 2001, in the series dating back to 1659. The MetO seem to adjust the figure on the last day of the month and usually downwards. It has also been another dry month, especially in the south and east of England. We have had quite a few warm Octobers in recent years with CET's of 13.1*C and 13.0*C respectively for 2005 and 2006.

However, don't forget that those of us in the Home Counties had an early taste of winter on 28th October 2008 when up to 7cm of snow fell. Here in Milton Keynes I measured 2cm that tuesday evening with patches remaining through the following day into the thursday despite plenty of sunshine and a max of 6*C on the wednesday. The min was -3*C on the wednesday morning.

The autumn colours have been very good this year, but I have not had time until today to get any snaps. Here are a couple form my lunchtime stroll near my place of work. The cloud cleared late in the morning to give a sunny afternoon with some decent convection, but not quite enough for a shower.

[Manukau heads obs]

nice photos

[Simon Culling]

Thanks Brian. They do not do justice to some of the beautiful colours seen around these parts last week.

We have had some wet weather in the UK associated with the same southerly flow causing the devastation in Italy, but nothing on that scale. Overnight Thursady and thru Friday (3rd/4th) was the wettest period, especially for the south and east of England (where we need the rain), with 55.8mm at Alice Holt Lodge and 36.3mm at South Farnborough (both in Hampshire) in the 24hrs to 2100GMT on Friday.

This has been overshadowed by an horrendous road crash on the M5 motorway near Taunton in Somerset (see BBC link) which is being partly attributed to fog and wet roads.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-15606278

October's CET finally came in at 12.6*C (+2.0*C) and the EWR was just 58mm, 78% of normal.

CET for November is 12.1*C (+3.8*C) up to the 5th and the EWR is 19mm up to the 4th against a monthly average of 92mm.

[Orion]

I was sorry to see the news of the dreadful motorway-crash in Somerset.
Your autumn tints are especially nice: I've also seen some photos taken in the Peebles area and the colours are so vivid.
There is a webcam I often view in the Ladybank area, Fife,
http://www.arranbanner.co.uk/webcams/fifecam_webcam
and on Sunday morning their time the ground appeared to be quite frosty - do you know if that was so?

[Simon Culling]

Hello Orion. Scotland and N Ireland have seen frosty nights in the last couple of days whilst in the south it has remained cloudy. On Sunday morning, the station at RAF Leuchars on the Fife coast recorded a minimum of +1.7*C, but further inland Strathallan (nr Perth) was frosty with a minimum of -2.8*C. As Ladybank is someway inland from the Fife coast, it is very likely that a slight frost would have been recorded in this area.

The investigation into the crash continues with the Plod concentrating on a fireworks display at a nearby rugby club event possibly producing a bank of smoke over the motorway. This will be a difficult one to prove.

[Simon Culling]

The big high pressure has been stuck over Western Russia for a couple of weeks now maintaining the broadly S to SE flow over the UK, with only ocassional rain affecting mostly the west. It has remained very mild, with the November CET on 10.6*C (+2.7*C) up to the 11th and the EWR on 24mm up to the 10th. The average for Nov is 92mm.

Its been quite warm for this time of the year, with figures of 17.8*C reported from Wigganholt (W Sussex) this afternoon, 17.3*C at Charlwood (Surrey) and 17.1*C at Bournemouth Airport.

A slow cooling is likely this week as the predominently dry weather continues and the wind becomes more of an easterly, but there is no sign of any particularly cold weather yet, despite silly tabloid headlines of a Siberian freeze to come!

[Simon Culling]

The remarkably mild weather continues with November still on target to be the warmest on record. The CET up to the 15th is 10.5*C (+3.0*C), with the EWR at just 29mm, approx two thirds of what it should be at the 15th. The warmest November in the CET series (dating back to 1659) was 1994 at 10.1*C, and the coldest was way back in 1782 with just 2.3*C.

The large high pressure remains over eastern Europe/western Russia directing southerly winds over the UK and confining the rain to the west and north-west, particularly the western highlands of Scotland.

Quite a few stations over England + Wales have yet to record an air frost this autumn, with the frost prone areas only having had a nip on a couple of nights.

The models suggest at least another 5 more days of this weather, with a dry and mild weekend for England and Wales and even some sunshine.

[Simon Culling]

It has remained mostly dry and mild here in Milton Keynes, although I did have to scrape the frost off my car for the first time this autumn yesterday (Wednesday) morning. CET is still 9.9*C (+3.0*C) up to the 23rd and the EWR is only 35mm up to the 21st, roughly half the running average.

A very deep (and rapidly deepening) low is moving NE to the west of the UK at the moment and is currently listed as in RACY development. At 1800GMT today (Thursday 24th) it was centred to the west of the Faroe Islands at 949mb, and is expected to be approaching the coast of Norway by the same time tomorrow (Friday), having dropped below 940mb in-between, before starting to fill slowly. The computer models suggest mean winds of 70-80kts on the S and SE flank, but luckily this is over the Northern Atlantic. However, the Faroes are getting buffeted at the moment with 42 kts gusting to 68kts recorded recently at Thorshavn Airport and the following METAR is for Klakksvik Heliport:

EKKV 2050Z AUTO 12048G92KT 060V190 1300NDV -RA BKN014 07/05 Q0958 RERA, thats gusts to 92kts (106mph)

Recent satellite picture (courtesy of KNMI, the Dutch equivalent of the Met Office)

http://www.knmi.nl/data/satrep/archive/ ... _1500.html

EDIT: Synop for Akraberg on the Faroe Island for 2100GMT on Thurs 24th gives max gust in last 3 hours of 110kts or 127mph.

AAXX 24214 06009 47/10 /2375 10068 20048 39497 49616 57079 76187 333 91099 00099 91199 00110 91287=

A lot of damage has been reported from the islands (which have a population of approx. 48,000)

http://www.icenews.is/index.php/2011/11 ... rce-storm/

[Simon Culling]

CET for November up to the 28th is still 9.8*C (+3.1*C) making this probably the second warmest November on record. The EWR has not been updated since the 21st.

It has turned a lot more unsettled in the last week with a much stronger jet stream making it across the Atlantic and a succession of deep low pressures forming and passing to the north of the UK and getting further and further south with each one. A very active cold front swept across the UK today and it was especially vigorous across northern England with at least 2 and possibly 3 tornadoes reported this evening, although only brief details are currently available. One was reported from the city of Manchester.

The next 5 days look wet and windy for most areas and gradually getting cooler. No sign of a repeat of the early winter cold we experienced last year.

[Simon Culling]

Final CET for November was 9.6*C (+3.0*) making it the 2nd warmest in the series dating back to 1659. The warmest was 1994 at 10.1*C and also way back in 1818 a figure of 9.5*C was recorded.

Final EWR for November was just 51mm, only 55% of the average (92mm).

It has also been a very mild autumn overall. See the release from the Met Office.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... umn-warmth

The sharp cold front on the 29th produced at least 5 probable tornadoes, although site investigations are still underway. They were all in the north of England where the most energy in the fornt was evident. Here in Milton Keynes the front passed over with just a few gusts of wind and some moderate rain.

[Simon Culling]

The Crown Prosecution Service have decided to charge the organiser of the firework display with 7 counts of manslaughter following the M5 motorway accident on the 4th November 2011. I think they will find this difficult to win, but it will be interesting to see why the 'experts' think the smoke and not the fog (and driving too fast for the conditons) was responsible for causing the accident.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/oct/1 ... nslaughter

[Simon Culling]

As expected, the manslaughter charges were dropped against the organiser of the fireworks display near to the scene of the tragic crash on 4th Nov 2011. However, he is likely to face a number of charges under the Health & Safety Acts at a later date. I am still interested to see what evidence they will present that directly blames the fireworks for the crash.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-21024902

[Simon Culling]

The court saga continues following the crash on the M5. The fireworks organiser has appeared in court again to answer health & safety charges this time and proceedings have been adjourned until November. The wheels of justice do go round slowly!

http://www.shponline.co.uk/news-content ... eaths-case

He has been charged with failing to organise the display so as to ensure the safety of others who may have been affected by it. This is a catch all charge that will be difficult to defend.......many companies are convicted under this law even when it is the crass stupidity of their employees that was the root cause. Our laws state that the companies are responsible for not foreseeing this stupidity and training it away! Try and win that one!