Sth Pacific-Coral Sea TC Season - 2011/12

[Manukau heads obs]

ps, OT...but first real tropical disturbance of the new summer season blowing up at the moment north of Fiji
looks impressive
could be a sign of alot more to come, i.e could be a busy summer for TC's in that part of the Pacific?

[jamie]

hmmm yes might have to start the topic in weatehr abroad for SW pacific cyclone season. It is definitly an early blow up. BUT i do remember one year not too long ago that had a cyclone develop and became quite strong in early November if my memory is corret. That year we had nothing until mid Jan. So not always the best indicator for the season to come. If i had time i would try find the year that i am thinking of to see how correct my memory is.

[Nev]

^ Good idea! I've moved the above comments to this new thread.

[Manukau heads obs]

yeah, there is a MJO passing through at the moment
so once that settles down, will be another month before the next peak in activity

[jamie]

ahhh here it is. Was cat4 storm Xavier in late october 2006 i was remembering. After this there was another good storm in November but then nothing until Jan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006%E2%80 ... one_season

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

hmmm yes might have to start the topic in weather abroad for SW pacific cyclone season. It is definitely an early blow up. BUT I do remember one year not too long ago that had a cyclone develop and became quite strong in early November if my memory is correct. That year we had nothing until mid Jan. So not always the best indicator for the season to come. If i had time i would try find the year that I am thinking of to see how correct my memory is.

...um sorry, I just corrected awl ov yourll spalling Miss Takes

[jamie]

hmmm yes might have to start the topic in weather abroad for SW pacific cyclone season. It is definitely an early blow up. BUT I do remember one year not too long ago that had a cyclone develop and became quite strong in early November if my memory is correct. That year we had nothing until mid Jan. So not always the best indicator for the season to come. If i had time i would try find the year that I am thinking of to see how correct my memory is.

...um sorry, I just corrected awl ov yourll spalling Miss Takes

hahaha thats what happens when I type quickly and not proof read before hitting submit.
Should your name be changed from the Charcoalerator to Spell check? Im sure we could all keep you very busy!

[bjb]

Looks like another tropical low is forming in the Coral Sea, South of PNG and Solomons.
Meteo NC have it down to 1004. ECMWF suggest it is going to develop further and head toward New Caledonia over the weekend and toward NZ next week. The FNMOC model is suggesting just a rain depression moving south east. Whatever happens it is going to be wet for Vanuatu and New Caledonia over the next few days. Already had 68mm of rain Sunday night at home in Port Vila and heading for at least 50mm today as well. Barry

[Tornado Tim]

Hey Barry, nice to see you back on the forum
Yup it certainly seems the tropics are starting to fire up now

[spwill]

Hopefully this Low will stay away from NZ as it is peak holiday season here next week, a lot of people will be camping Northland to Gisborne.

[bjb]

Yep back for the cyclone season. Looks like it might be active again. Just hope anything misses Port Vila like last season. If the ECMWF model is right then the North Island could get a tropical storm next week. But the week to ten days out models are always subject to change (mind you they got the Yasi track right on, a week out). Up to 78mm of rain now, so 20mm in the past hour. Normally heavy rain like this waits for the Cruise Ships to come into town, but they are not due till Thur & Fri this week. B

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes. I noticed that last night here on ECMWF. Could be the first TC of the 2011/2012 season but missing NZ although some of the effects of this could be noticed in Northland and the upper North Island.

[Willoughby]

First Tropical Disturbance Summary from the JTWC:

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZDEC2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
157.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 200317Z AMSU
IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY
INTO THE ELONGATED LLCC. A 192315Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
LLCC WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, VWS INCREASES TO
20-30 KNOTS POLEWARD OF 17S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[bjb]

BOM have named the low in the Coral Sea as Cyclone Fina.
At this stage it looks like being a short lived Cat. 1 storm.
Will also stay out to sea between Australia and New Caledonia.

The low and trough have brought three days of heavy rain to most of Vanuatu.
Between 50mm and 80mm over 24 hour periods to some areas.
There was flooding to many roads around Port Vila yesterday.
Just hope it clears a bit for Christmas.

Barry

[Nev]

Fiji Met last night upped the chances of a TC forming near Vanuatu in the next day or two...

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 29/0848 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 167.0E
AT 290600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST IS AROUND 29C.

ORGANISATION HAS IMRPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE EASTERN FLANK IN THE PAST 24HOURS AND
REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. LLCC DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. THE SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Nev]

Fiji Met issued its first Advisory this arvo...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/2351 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [999HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 167.0E AT
292100 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST EAST OF AN
UPPER TROUGH UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
SOUTHEAST.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IN MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD07F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 300200UTC.

Edit: Vanuatu Track-map added.

[Nev]

Last night Fiji Met advised that TD 07F had spawned a second LLCC to its east, TD 09F. Most likely one will absorb the other, but either way, RSMC Nadi give both more than 50% chance of TC status in the next day or two. Surprised JTWC haven't mentioned anything yet?

Latest Advisory...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/1406 UTC 2012 UTC.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 168.0E AT
301200 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST AT 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED
ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
REGION ALOFT. DEPRESSION LIES IN A REGION OF MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY INTO
A REGION OF DECREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 171.0E AT
301200UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. OVERALL
ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEPRESSION LIES
TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE MAINTAINING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUALLY
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BOTH TD07F AND TD09F WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 302000UTC.

[Manukau heads obs]

looks weaker this morning
but will be giving alot more rain to Fiji this morning

I see alot of ads to holiday in Fiji at the moment..

[Nev]

Fiji Met now rates the western LLCC as 'moderate to high' and the eastern LLCC as 'low to moderate'. JTWC rates only the western LLCC's chances, as 'medium'...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0135 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 164.6E AT
310000 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 2O TO 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 06 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION. DEPRESSION LIES IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY INTO A
REGION OF DECREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY TD07F ISSUED AT OR AROUND
310800UTC.

----------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0143 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 173.5E AT
310000UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
DEPRESSION LIES DOWNSTREAM OF 250HPA TROUGH AND UNDER THE LEFT HAND
ENTRANCE OF THE JET. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
AND IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHWEST WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD09F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 310800UTC.

ABPW10 PGTW 302300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/302300Z-310600ZJAN2012//
RMKS/
...B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3S 162.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC EXISTS WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ), WHICH HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA REVEALS 20 TO 25 WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE A SHARPLY DEFINED AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN THE TROUGH. A 301931Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS THICK
AND ABUNDANT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF
THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEVELOPED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE
SPCZ WILL KEEP THE LLCC MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SHEAR GRADIENT.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Vanuatu Met not quite so optimistic going by today's morn and arvo track-maps...

[Manukau heads obs]

the western one looks to be stealing all the energy now

[Tornado Tim]

Quite a bit of lightning from those developing lows detected all the way from here!

The Boltek and Blitzortung detector picked quite a bit of strikes (peaking around 10 PM -12 PM at night)

[Tornado Tim]

Large pool of drier air,sits right against the monsoonal trough as you can see in the water vapour image.

Will be very interesting to see how the lows developing TC's interact with the drier air...

Images courtesy of NOAA

[Nev]

The western LLCC has all but absorbed the eastern one by the looks...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/1952 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 171.7E AT
311800 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CLOUD TOPS COOLING IN THE
LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS, DOWNSTREAM OF
AN UPPER TROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF THE 250 HPA JET. DEPRESSION LIES IN
A REGION OF LOW SHEAR AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A DEEP
LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. SST IS AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.45 WRAP YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. FT
BASED ON DT, MET AND PT AGREES.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS THEN SOUTHWEST.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY FOR TD07F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 010200UTC.

[Nev]

Odd? Yesterday, both RSMC Nadi and JTWC expected the western LLCC to dominate. Today it seems that opposite is the case. RSMC Nadi also appears to have just done an about=face and revised that potential to 'low', which seems to be at loggerheads with JTWC's prediction just a few hours earlier.

There's also a weak low currently in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria, which is forecast to cross Cape York and move into the Coral Sea later in the week, with the potential of developing into another TC...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0751 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2S 172.5E AT
010600 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHERLY AT 20 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION STARTED TO DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY AS OF MIDDAY TODAY.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DETACHED FROM THE LLCC DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF STRONG SHEAR. SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 26
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION. THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F.

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZFEB2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
165.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1S
174.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 172.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. MSI
ALSO INDICATES MERGER OF TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS (93P AND 91P) WITH
93P WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE PRIMARY,
STRONGER LLCC (91P). THEREFORE, 93P WAS DISSIPATED (SEE PARAGRAPH
2.B.(1)). A 312145Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS ONE CIRCULATION
CENTER SOUTHEAST OF VANUATU WITH STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK. DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CENTRAL CONVECTION,
A 010224Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING WEAKLY INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW CALEDONIA IS
PROVIDING SOME POLEWARD VENTING BUT IS ALSO PRODUCING MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC, WHICH, ALONG WITH MARGINAL TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 50 MM, IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ALLOWING THE SYSTEM SOME
BREATHING ROOM WITH AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BUT
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
139.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FUELING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SYSTEM, PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 312328Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATES 15-20 KNOT WINDS WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
ONLY 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP VALUES AS LOW AS 996 MB AT KOWANYAMA
(40 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER). THE MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR SHOWS A
DEFINED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE LLCC IS POSITIONED EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE LLCC
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD AND EMERGE OVER THE CORAL SEA IN ABOUT
2 DAYS, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE MARGINAL UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

[Tornado Tim]

Thanks Nev with all the TC updates, your awesome!