Tropical Cyclone Jasmine

[Nev]

BoM finally got around to acknowledging and naming TC Jasmine at 2am this morn NZDT. Less than 10 hours earlier, they'd only rated her chances as low to moderate. Not sure why, as it looked fairly obvious right throughout yesterday just how well Jasmine was becoming organised. JTWC on the other hand has been rating her chances as high ever since Friday...

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:10 pm EST on Saturday 4 February 2012
At 10 pm EST Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Category 1) with central
pressure 986 hPa was located
over the Coral sea
near latitude 16.9 south longitude 150.7 east, which is about 100 km southeast
of Willis Is and 490 km east northeast of Townsville.

The cyclone is moving east at about 10 kilometres per hour and should gradually
intensify over the next 24 hours.
TROPICAL CYCLONE Jasmine, CATEGORY 1, is expected to gradually intensify during
the next 72 hours as it maintains an easterly track. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
is not expected to directly affect the Queensland coast.

--------------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone centre position confident as system within Willis Island radar.
Convection has flared near the LLCC suggesting lowering shear and increasing
organisation, though most of the convection still remains to the west of the
system. Strongest winds remain to the north of the system with consistent Willis
Island observations of 45 knots. Favourable upper divergence and wind shear
indicating gradual intensification probable over the next 48 hours. The system
has increased its easterly movement over the past few hours and is expected to
continue moving to the east.

[bjb]

Nev

Agree with you, have to wonder why BOM took so long to put out any warnings and to name Jasmine.
It has been clear since the low was over Gulf of Carpentaria that it had potential for development.

I just hope that JTWC and the other models are right and Jasmine does not develop much past a Cat. 1 or 2, and that it slips to the south of Port Vila between Vanuatu and New Caledonia.

The weather has been very unsettled in Vanuatu over the past few weeks.
There have been a number of tropical depressions and lows around, but none have developed further.
Sometimes it takes a full cyclone to go through and clear things.

Barry

[Nev]

Hey Barry,

Jasmine is now at Cat.2, despite the lack of convection to her east. Unfortunately, BoM's latest track-map has her approaching Port Vila as a Cat. 3, although I suspect she will still slip slightly to the south between Vanuatu and New Caledonia...

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:56 am EST on Sunday 5 February 2012
At 10 am EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Category 2) with central
pressure 984 hPa was located over the Coral sea near latitude 17.2 south
longitude 152.5 east, which is about 720 km east of Cairns and 285 km east
southeast of Willis Is.

The cyclone is moving east at about 20 kilometres per hour and should gradually
intensify over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is not expected to directly affect the Queensland
coast.

-----------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone centre position based on Visible imagery, showing deep
convection located to the west of the low level circulation centre. System
organisation continues to improve under a favourable upper level diffulent
pattern. Jasmine is expected to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours due
to moderate deep layer shear while continuing to move eastwards.

[Nev]

Looking a lot healthier this morn...

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:58 am EST on Monday 6 February 2012
At 4 am EST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Category 2) with central pressure
980 hPa was located over the Coral sea near latitude 16.8 south longitude 156.5
east, which is about 910 km east northeast of Mackay and 1060 km east northeast
of Townsville.

The cyclone is moving east at about 29 kilometres per hour and should gradually
intensify over the next 24 hours.

WTPS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 004//
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 156.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, JASMINE, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME RECENT CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
STILL BEING DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THERE ARE ALSO CLEAR INDICATIONS THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EASING. DEEP CONVECTION IS GATHERING CLOSER TO THE LLCC AND
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING IS FORMING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
LLCC. AMSU RADIAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW NO INTENSIFICATION OF THE MID-
LEVEL WARM ANOMALY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSES FROM
ABRF CONTINUE TO EXCEED THOSE OF THE AMERICAN AGENCIES BUT DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS THE AUSTRALIANS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE SHEAR
TECHNIQUE TO THE EMBEDDED CENTER METHOD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON TWO SHIP REPORTS FROM THE PERIMETER OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH THE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE OUTFLOW
SITUATION HAS ALSO IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 051200Z
PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SINGULAR OUTFLOW
POINT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10P IS TRACKING JUST NORTH
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A REGION OF 15 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE AND A
REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE STORM, THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING
TOWARDS RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE ARE EASING. THE GRADIENT LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE THAT
TC 10P IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH IS ORIENTED DUE
EAST THROUGH WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA THROUGH
FIJI. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29 DEGREES. THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN A MID- TO HI-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOLOMONS, IS STEERING TC 10P STEADILY EASTWARD.
THE RIDGE IS RETROGRADING TOWARDS PAPUA NEW GUINEA, WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR A SHORT-TERM EQUATORWARD DRIFT. GENERALLY THOUGH, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK STRAIGHT EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, THEN TURN
POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE
(SPCZ). MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND THE FORECAST STAYS STRAIGHT WITH CONSENSUS. BECAUSE OF THE
CONSISTENCY SHOWN IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE RELATIVELY STABLE
ORIENTATION OF THE SPCZ, THERE EXISTS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
STORM WILL TRACK BETWEEN NEW CALEDONIA AND VANUATU, MINIMIZING
DAMAGE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME UP DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT
THE TIME AND REGION OF PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS THE SAME. THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
ENTRY INTO THE SPCZ, NEAR TAU 84. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCTS ARE
NOW INDICATING THAT LIGHTER SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER THE SPCZ DURING
THE LATER TAUS, DELAYING THE WEAKENING TREND. NONETHELESS, AS TC 10P
APPROACHES 25 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL SHARPLY AND A RAPID WEAKENING TREND WILL COMMENCE. LONG-RANGE
THICKNESS PROGS DEPICT THE EARLIEST STAGE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION COMMENCING NEAR TAU 120.//
NNNN

[Nev]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/2004 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 978HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 161.4E
AT 061800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS. ...

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENT ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEERING AND LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.85 WRAP YIELDING
T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS. CYCLONE STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS
IT REMAINS IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060921Z FEB 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 175.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 175.6W

....

REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 174.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF
NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11P HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL SYSTEM (ABOUT 120NM
RADIUS) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060516Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
LLCC. A 061152Z PARTIAL OCEANSAT IMAGE PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED QUICKLY AND SHOWS A STRONG, DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30-
35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. TC
11P IS TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW
BETWEEN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION POSITIONED EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THEREFORE, TC 11P IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20-30 KNOTS SPEED OF
ADVANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO GFS,
GFDN, WBAR, UKMO AND ECMWF BUT IS IN EXCELLENT, TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS INCLUDING
INCREASING, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH VALUES
DECREASING BELOW 25C NEAR 25S LATITUDE. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO
DISSPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060921Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 060930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Michael]

11p called cyril now.

[Nev]

11p called cyril now.

Yep, already posted in the, Sth Pacific-Coral Sea TC Season thread.

Not really worth a separate thread though.

[Nev]

HURRICANE WARNING 045 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 07/0140 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 955HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0 SOUTH
163.0 EAST AT 070000 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/0800 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 945HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S
164.5E AT 070600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90
KNOTS. ...

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS WITH EYE FORMING. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS
GOOD. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY STRONG
WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING AND LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE WITH LG SURROUND YIELDING
T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS.
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS

[Nev]

RSMC Nadi had Severe TC Jasmine at Cat.4 last night, although her eye has clouded over since...

HURRICANE WARNING 050 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 07/1312 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 942HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8 SOUTH
165.6 EAST AT 071200 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/1655 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 942HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S
165.6E AT 071200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
11 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95
KNOTS. ...

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
COLD CONVECTION PERSIST AROUND LLCC. EYE STILL WELL DEFINED IN IR.
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF A SHORT-WAVE UPPER
TROUGH CENTER IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONE STEERED BY WEST TO
NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN B
SURROUND YIELDING T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS. DT = 6.0, PT= 5.5 AND
MET=5.5.
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND GRADUALLY EASING
THE SYSTEM.

[Manukau heads obs]

nice looking TC overnight
and yeah looks a bit weaker now
which the southern end of Vanuatu will be pleased about

[bjb]

Yep, it was a bit worrying in Vila overnight when it got up to Cat. 4 and took a dog leg North.
Up until now not sure the central pressures have been more than estimates.
The eye had not passed over any major islands.

That has changed now with the recent figures in from the Vanuatu Meteo weather station on Aneityum.
(this is the most Southern island in Vanuatu, unless you count unoccupied Matthew & Hunter that the French dispute).
The 5pm readings were hPa 956 and winds N at 120.4km/h.
The 6pm are hPa 986 and winds NNE at 157.4km/h.
These put it close to the top end Cat. 3 using the Australian basis.

Feel sorry for the people down there it is all agriculture, except for the Cruise Ship visits every few weeks.
The banana and pawpaw trees will be ripped to threads with 150km/h winds.

Barry

[Manukau heads obs]

it looked like it got stronger again today
Nice and compact system

does not look like it (the remains) will make it down to NZ
but I would not completly right it off yet

[Nev]

HI Barry. Thanks for the info. Glad to see Jasmine stayed more or less between the two island groups. Wouldn't want to make eye-contact with this feisty little beast.

I see she only temporarily lost Cat.4 status yesterday morn and JTWC currently have central-pressure down to 937 hPa, with 215 km/h 1-minute mean-winds (185 km/h 10-minute mean-winds), which takes her close to Cat.5 (AU). Nadi, however, have her back up to 945 hPa...

HURRICANE WARNING 057 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 08/1311 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1 SOUTH
169.9 EAST AT 081200 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 08/1403 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 945HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1S
169.9E AT 081200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 100 KNOTS.
WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH THE IR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
EYE STILL WELL DEFINED IN IR IMAGERY. SLIGHT WARMING OF TOPS PAST 3
HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A WEAK
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN LG SURROUND, YIELDING DT=5.5, PT=6.0 AND
MET=6.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 29
DEGRESS CELCIUS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ON THE PROJECTED PATH.

THE CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A few interesting comments in JTWC's last report...

WTPS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 009//
...
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A COMPACT,
HIGHLY AXISYMMETRIC, CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE BANDING EYE MEASURING
APPROXIMATELY 20 NM. A 080631Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS A
NEARLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN
THE SYSTEMS PERIPHERIES. TC 10P HAS PRESENTED THIS CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS (EVIDENT FROM THE MICROWAVE PASS
MOSAIC) SHORTLY AFTER IT WENT THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. SUCH CHARACTERISTICS LIKE, NEARLY CIRCULAR LARGE
EYE DIAMETER, SYMMETRIC ANNULUS OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE
LLCC, AND GENERAL LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEYOND THE
ANNULUS, INDICATE THAT TC JASMINE COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS AN ANNULAR
TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANALYSIS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS OF MSI INDICATES
THAT POSSIBLE MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICES HAVE BEEN CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
WITHIN THE LARGER EYE WHICH CAN PRODUCE MIXING OF EYEWALL AIR INTO
THE EYE AND VICE VERSA. THIS CONTINUED MIXING CAN CAUSE THE
FORMATION OF THE AXISYMMETRIC LARGE EYE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
REMAIN IN PLACE TO FURTHER SUPPORT THE ANNULAR STRUCTURE. SUCH
SYSTEMS AS THESE HISTORICALLY RESIST NORMAL WEAKENING TRENDS AND
TYPICALLY WEAKEN AT A RATE OF 12 KNOTS PER DAY (0.5 T-NUMBER PER
DAY). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI EYE AND SSMIS IMAGE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM KNES AND NFFN. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP TO TAU 48
BEFORE IT GETS DEFLECTED EASTWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURRENTLY HAVE
REACHED IT'S PEAK INTENSITY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AT A RATE OF
APPROXIMATELY 0.5 T-NUMBER PER DAY. BY TAU 72, TC JASMINE WILL
COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 96.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOLE EXCEPTIONS OF NOGAPS AND GFDN THAT CONTINUE TO EXCEEDINGLY
ACCELERATE THE VORTEX IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. ANALYSIS OF THE 500-1000
MB MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT TC JASMINE WITH UNDERGO BAROCLINIC
TEMPERTATUE ADVETION AND SUCUMMB TO THE MID-LATITUDE WEATERLY FLOW
BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Couple of sat-pics below from yesterday morn and evening...

[Manukau heads obs]

ahem
its moving alot more SSE now!

[Nev]

^ Yeah, almost south. Brings her slightly closer to us. Nadi still saying SE less than 2 hours ago, lol.

Also still at Cat.4 this morn, centre at 952 hPh, with 90 kt (165 km/h) winds.

Earlier remarks:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 08/1944 UTC 2012 UTC. ...

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH THE IR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. THE SYSTEM LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF 250HPA RIDGE AXIS AND EAST OF UPPER TROUGH IN A WEAK
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON LG EYE IN B SURROUND, YIELDING DT=5.0, PT=5.5 AND
MET=5.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 28
DEGRESS CELCIUS AND IS DECREASING ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH. THE
CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

[Nev]

Nadi now have her down to Cat.3 this arvo at 955 hPa (JTWC say 942 hPa), heading SSE.

Despite a clear well defined eye this arvo...

HURRICANE WARNING 059 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/0120 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 955HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5 SOUTH
170.9 EAST AT 090000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 22.5S 170.9E AT 090000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 75 KNOTS BY
091200 UTC AND DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY 100000 UTC. ...

[Manukau heads obs]

great looking TC at the latitude its at
cloud tops are warming a bit now..
we might see some N swell from it by sunday
ps, great looking mackeral sky here this evening

[Nev]

Jasmine weakening, but still sporting an eye. She has continued tracking SSE overnight and should just about be in NZ's area of responsibility (AOR) by now as a Cat.2 (Nadi's next update should be its last).

HURRICANE WARNING 061 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/1318 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8 SOUTH
171.3 EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 23.8S 171.3E AT 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY
100000 UTC AND DECREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY 101200 UTC.

Earlier JTWC Comments:

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 011//
...
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 171.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THIS
WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION, IR IMAGERY AND A 090617Z SSMIS IMAGE
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM (APPROXIMATELY 90-NM
DIAMETER) WITH A 20-NM ROUND EYE AND TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED
ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM KNES
AND PGTW; HOWEVER, RECENT IMAGERY SUPPORTS A WEAKENING TREND AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C). TC 10P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. NEAR
TAU 72, A STRONG STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND
PRODUCING AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL SST (24-25C) AND
ENCOUNTERS DRIER, STABLE AIR. THERE IS NO INDICATION IN THE MODEL
FIELDS OR THE CYCLONE PHASE PRODUCTS THAT TC 10P WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION SO THIS FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO A DISSIPATION
SCENARIO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT
DIVERGES SLIGHTLY BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

Yeasterday evening's visible sat-pic...

[Vertigo]

beautiful TC! compact and strong

[Manukau heads obs]

I like it
got me excited
been a while...welcome back TC's

[jamie]

yes its been great watching this. Has been quiet in the SW pacific this season.

like brian said its looking great for how far south it is. It still has an eye and its sitting roughly 25 degrees south at the moment

[Nev]

Hmm... Nadi still has her at Cat.3 as she enters NZ's AOR....

HURRICANE WARNING 062 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/1929 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 961HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6
SOUTH 171.6 EAST AT 091800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 24.6S 171.6E AT 091800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY
100600 UTC AND DECREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY 101800 UTC. ...

PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY FOR FUTURE WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE WILL REST
WITH TCWC WELLINGTON.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 09/1958 UTC 2012 UTC. ...

CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 12 HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. EYE PARTIALLY
CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM LIES TO
THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SOUTH OF 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM BEING STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN LG SURROUND, YIELDING DT=5.0, PT=5.0 AND
MET=5.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 26
DEGREES CELCIUS AND IS DECREASING ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THAN SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...

THE WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE.

WTPS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 012// ...

REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 172.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A THINNING OF THE
CONVECTIVE BAND IS OCCURRING AS WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOP EMPERATURES
HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW/KNES AND THE DIMINISHING EYEWALL
CONVECTION, ALL SHOWING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY
REMAINS STRONG AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE FEATURE,
WHICH HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND ACCELERATE IN LATER TAUS, AS TC 10P REMAINS
OVER A REGION OF UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24-25
CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 10P CONTINUES TO HAVE
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, HOWEVER A DRIER AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT SHOULD TURN
EASTWARD AFTER TAU 12. NEAR TAU 48, A STRONG STR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND PRODUCING AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48,
BUT DIVERGES BEYOND WITH NGPS/EGRR/GFS SHOWING A SHARPER RECURVATURE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMF
SOLUTION SHOWING A WEAKER TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND
102100Z.//
NNNN

[03Stormchaser]

HURRICANE WARNING 198
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone JASMINE [965hPa] centre was located near 25.8 South 172.8 East at 100600 UTC.
Position Good.
Repeat position 25.8S 172.8E at 100600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 8 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in the western quadrant and within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to southwest.

Forecast position near 26.2S 174.1E at 101800 UTC
and near 26.2S 175.4E at 110600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 194.

Issued at 7:39pm Friday 10 Feb 2012

----------------------------------------------------

http://metservice.com/national/warnings/marine-warnings

latest.JPG

latest1.JPG

[jamie]

still looking great

[Manukau heads obs]

wow, amazed to get up this morning and see it still has an eye!
(with fast rotation you can see in the eye wall cloud bands, she still has alot of momentum!)