TC Lua - Western Australia

[spike_01]

Looking quite serious at the moment.. Next 48 hours will tell the story..

[spike_01]

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

[Nev]

Severe TC Lua has reintensified and expected to cross the east Pilbara coast as a Cat 4 late arvo NZDT...

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued at 2:48 am WST on Saturday 17 March 2012

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.6 degrees South 118.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 954 hectoPascals


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1852 UTC 16/03/2012
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua

REMARKS:

Severe TC Lua has remained steady at 80 knots for the last 3 hours as it
continues to track east southeast towards the east Pilbara coast. Position is
based on recent IR and microwave imagery, with indications on Port Hedland
RADAR, albeit at extreme range.

Dvorak analysis of embedded centre yields DT of 5.0, MET is 5.5 based on a trend
of D, PAT of 4.5 resulting in an FT of 5.0. SATCON at 12Z indicates 1min winds
of 93 knots with AMSU estimates running at 100 knots 1 min mean.

Microwave imagery from TMI at 1515Z is indicating improved convective structure
with a well defined eye at 85-89 GHz. Final intensity estimate 80 knots 10 min
mean but is expected to increase further in the short term.

SSMIS imagery indicates intensification, and this trend is expected to continue.
The system could reach 90 knots prior to landfall. The system is likely to
maintain TC intensity until Sunday afternoon as it moves over inland parts of
WA.

[Tornado Tim]

Looks like Pardoo or just slightly east of it is going to be slammed by the eye. BOM expecting gusts to get and possibly exceed 270km/kr!

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers and Wiluna.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the eastern Gascoyne and the northern Goldfields including Meekatharra and Leinster.

At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category 4 was estimated to be 290km west southwest of Broome moving southeast at 23km/h.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying and a coastal crossing is expected crossing during Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of Pardoo Station. Very Destructive winds to 270km/h are forecast near the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast.

The eye is quite visible due to a thunderstorm around LLCC.

Map and Radar image courtesy of Weatherzone AU

[Nev]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0643 UTC 17/03/2012
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua

REMARKS:
Severe TC Lua is currently crossing the east Pilbara coast near Pardoo as shown
on the Port Hedland radar.

Intensity is estimated at 95 knots [category 4] at the top of the Dvorak 5.5
range although DT is at 5.0 based on IR embedded centre pattern [in white] and
MET is now at 5.0 as well. The high intensity estimate is also influenced by
Rowley Shoals observations earlier today: 938.8hPa at 1am and 75 knot mean winds
at 3am. As these are hourly reports, stronger intensites are probable, hence the
central pressure is estimated at 932hPa.

Lua has a very large wind field with storm force winds extending about 2 degrees
in the northern sector augmented by the strong monsoonal flow. This is
generating signficant waves north and east of the system.

Lua will weaken as it moves on a general southerly track inland but could still
be at cyclone intensity until Sunday afternoon. The system will still cause
heavy rain and gusty conditions through parts of southern WA after it weakens
below tropical cyclone intensity.

[Tornado Tim]

You bet me to it Nev

Looks like Lua has just made landfall, east of Pardoo.

I have had a look at the Pardoo Weather Station via the BOM's Website. It hasnt updated online, yet.....

Radar courtesy of Weatherzone AU via BOM and Weatherstation data courtesy of BOM

[Nev]

I think the Pardoo WS is manually read - hence the only 6-9 hourly updates.

[Tornado Tim]

The Bedout Island Weather station seems to be an AWS and hence caries a more thorough picture.
Weather data courtesy of the BOM

[Nev]

Couple of sat-pics - first light and landfall...

[Nev]

Still at Cat 2 well over 300 km inland this morn.

Good link to yesterday's radar-loop of Lua making landfall here.

[tgsnoopy]

There will be video of it uploaded to YouTube later, Oz Cyclone Chasers got good footage of it making landfall near Pardoo Station.

[tgsnoopy]

First video is out from Oz Cyclone Chasers. It's of it approaching not the core and is just a teaser. Their main footage is of course for sale to media, so watch out for it in the media.

[tgsnoopy]

For Facebook users here is a media report. Youtube has some too, so search on their username for more.

[Vertigo]

Couple of sat-pics - first light and landfall...

look at that outflow