Thanks Tim. Looks like a 'gone-burger' at this stage...
Advisory Number 5 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 12:33am VUT Thursday 2 February 2012.
At 11:00pm local time, a tropical low (995 hPa) was located near 21.3S 172.3E ... Position poor. This is about 285 KM east southeast of Aneityum. The system has moved south southeast at 31 KM/HR. The potential for the tropical low to become a tropical cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.
Heavy rainfall is still expected over the Northern and Southern Vanuatu. Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and flooding remains current for Northern and Southern islands. Gale Wind Warning is current for Southern coastal waters of Vanuatu. High Seas Warning is also current for the northeast and southern Vanuatu Area.
The Vanuatu National Disaster Management office (NDMO) advises people that there are still no colour Alerts at this stage; however people throughout Vanuatu must remain cautious.
This will be the final advisory on the system unless the situation changes.
Hmm... Unlike Fiji Met and Vanuatu Met, JTWC still see some potential for improvement of this system in the not too distant future. Worth keeping an eye on...
ABPW10 PGTW 012000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/012000Z-020600ZFEB2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1S
172.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 171.8E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN APPROXIMATELY 700NM BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS AND IS THEREFORE EXHIBITING MONSOON DEPRESSION
CHARACTERISTICS. A 011018Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 30 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC.
DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CENTRAL CONVECTION, A 011734Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING
WEAKLY INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW
CALEDONIA IS PROVIDING SOME POLEWARD VENTING BUT IS ALSO PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC. THE DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD ALLOWING THE SYSTEM SOME BREATHING ROOM WITH AN
IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. DUE TO
THE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011200Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT
CYCLONIC TURNING SOUTHWEST OF WALLABY ISLAND WITH CENTRAL WINDS OF
20-25 KNOTS, AND 30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW DEGREES TO THE WEST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA (40 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER)
INDICATE ONLY 10-15 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SLP VALUES AS LOW
AS 994 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS POSITIONED
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH A POINT-SOURCE OF
DIFFLUENCE APPROXIMATELY 12 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THESE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE CREATING MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS UNDER THE MONSOONAL FLOW AND EMERGE OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE CORAL SEA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WHEN THE LLCC
EMERGES OVER THE CORAL SEA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM AND UPDATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
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A weak low crossed the Qld coast into the Coral Sea just SE of Cairns earlier this morn. Ideal conditions favour a high probably of cyclogenesis within the next 24 hours, according to both JTWC and BoM.
JTWC have already issued a formation alert...
WTPS21 PGTW 022000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 145.8E TO 19.5S 154.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY,
SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA AT 021930Z, INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
142.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER NORTHERN
QUEENSLAND. RECENT 512 KM COMPOSITE RADAR FROM CAIRNS INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CAIRNS. A 021139Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS VERY TIGHT TROUGHING ALONG THE
COAST WITH 20 KNOT NORTHWESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. FURTHER EXAMINATION
OF THE 512 KM COMPOSITE RADAR FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, ALONG WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COEN AIRPORT SHOWING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN QUEENSLAND MAY BE
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. 022000Z SURFACE PRESSURE REPORTS FROM
COOKTOWN (CLOSEST TO THE LLCC) ARE 993 MB WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST WEST OF A POINT-SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND NEARLY UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
WEAK AT 05-10 KNOTS AND THERE IS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. DUE TO
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS OVER THE
CORAL SEA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032000Z.//
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Hmm... Today's BoM 3-day outlook differs considerably from yesterday's, which originally had a high probably for both Saturday and Sunday...
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Friday the 3rd of February 2012 and valid until end of
Monday
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea
while a weak low currently sits over the northwest Coral Sea, about 200km
east-northeast of Cairns. The low is forecast to move east-southeast across the
Coral Sea and be east of 160E by late Sunday. The low may develop slightly over
the next couple of days. Even if this low does become a tropical cyclone it is
unlikely to have any significant impact along the Queensland coast.
Tropical Cyclone Cyril, just W of Tonga, was named earlier this morn after becoming quickly organised last night. Not expected to last too long though...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/2016 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL 11F CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8S
174.2W AT 061800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. ...
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO TRAP AROUND THE LLCC. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES
TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SOUTH OF 250 HPA RIDGE
AXIS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060921Z FEB 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 175.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 175.6W
...
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 174.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF
NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11P HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL SYSTEM (ABOUT 120NM
RADIUS) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060516Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
LLCC. A 061152Z PARTIAL OCEANSAT IMAGE PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED QUICKLY AND SHOWS A STRONG, DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30-
35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. TC
11P IS TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW
BETWEEN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION POSITIONED EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THEREFORE, TC 11P IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20-30 KNOTS SPEED OF
ADVANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO GFS,
GFDN, WBAR, UKMO AND ECMWF BUT IS IN EXCELLENT, TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS INCLUDING
INCREASING, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH VALUES
DECREASING BELOW 25C NEAR 25S LATITUDE. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO
DISSPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060921Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 060930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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STORM WARNING 043 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 07/0106 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0
SOUTH 171.9 WEST AT 070000 UTC.
-----------------
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/0758 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL CENTRE [985HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 169.9W
AT 070600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GMSIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS, EASING TO 45 KNOTS WIYHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. ...
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHWEST. EYE EVIDENT IN PAST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED IN LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF 250 HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO WEST BUT REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. CIMMS
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.8 WRAP YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON PROJECTED PATH.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAINS A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITHOUT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.
WTPS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002//
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 171.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITIONS WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 062355Z SURFACE
OBSERVATION FROM LUPEPAU, A NEARBY ISLAND TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11P IS 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF RAPIDLY INCREASING (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE VORTEX IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF A DEEPLY-ENTRENCHED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS FURTHER
INCREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STR AXIS AND
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. TC CYRIL WILL
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TRIPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HENCE, THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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Looks like we are going to get some late season activity over the next week.
Fiji Met has been monitoring TD16F and TD17F over the past few days.
Still listed as a low chance of them forming over the next few days.
Of more concern to Solomons & Vanuatu is the developing low near Honiara.
BOM have been showing on their 4 day maps as developing in the Coral Sea by the weekend.
On Channel 9 QLD last night the forecaster gave it a 20% chance of forming in the next few days.
And Fiji Met has now listed it on their three day watch as having a moderate risk of forming on Saturday.
Looks like I will be doing some serious weather watching over the next few days.
The low near Fiji looks good on this morn's sat-pics, although not expected to develop too much further. And yes, I see Vanuatu Met is also going for a low to moderate chance for the low S of the Solomons intensifying in the next few days.
BoM's ACCESS model actually shows 3 LLCC's by Saturday...
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Looks like the western district of Viti Levu copped most of the heavy rain on Thu/Fri.
According to Fiji Met's Rainfall Map, for the 48 hours to 9am today (Saturday), Lautoka recorded a whopping 656mm and Nadi Airport 414mm. By contrast Suva recorded 99mm, while in Vanua Levu, Labasa Aero recorded 196mm.
Yes, Nadi expect some intensification (and more rain ) with that one...
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 31/0925 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD18F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.3S
170.0E AT 310600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD18F SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO 700 HPA. TD18F LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UNDER RIDGE AXIS IN
A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIROMENT.
FEW GLOBAL MODEL PICK UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
Last night's sat pic...
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Looks like a 'gone-burger' at this stage...
) with that one...