US Storm Chasing 2012

[spwill]

Hey guys - yep! We arrived early yesterday morning into a cool and cloudy Los Angeles. Was still 8/8 this morning with drizzle patches, smog was thick under the inversion. Very dank and depressing. As soon as we climbed and passed the eastern mountains it was mostly sunny and fresh, but very cool. In Las Vegas, NV now where it is a pleasant 32/-4 with some haze and high cloud.

May upload some photos later.

Good luck Foggy, LA can be suprisingly cool this time of year but you don't have to go far inland for the heat.

[NZstorm]

I came across this chart which is the SPC guidance for the level of risk. Quite interesting. For a high risk there needs to be a 30% + tornado prob. A major convective wind event could also be a high risk.

[NZstorm]

Maybe a bit off topic here but it is interesting to consider where NZ convection would fit into the SPC severe forecast criteria. I think 2% or 5% category(see text). You could possibly get a 15%(Slight Risk) type event on rare occasions. I think Australia would get a lot of slight risk caliber set ups (15-30%).

[Willoughby]

Chasing a storm in far-southern OK. Warm and gusty S winds; 34/18.

[NZstorm]

Forecast sounding for SE South Dakota tomorrow. 00hr KYKN

0-3km helicity near 400 which indicates tornadoes possible.

[Willoughby]

Hey guys,

Jacci and I chased southern OK / Red River region yesterday and intercepted a right-moving supercell which had a nice bell-shaped elevated wall cloud accociated with it. Baseball sized hail was recorded with this storm but luckily we only got pelted with marble-sized hail.

We have done the long haul up to northeastern Nebraska and the Cu field sits to our north. The temp/dp here is 32/18 coming up to Albion, NE. The RAP model (supercedes the RUC) isn't picking the farther S-than-expected boundary layer up well into NE Neb as cloud from this morning's storms remains right across SD. The DP in Sioux Falls, SD where there is much better helicity is just 57F (14C).

Game on today! Cu field starting to show a lot more beef.

Here's a current screen grab of GRlevel2 with vis sat. (Click to enlarge)


Tornado watch will be issued by 21Z. 20Z now.

[NZstorm]

Good driving Foggy, good luck with the chasing.

[Willoughby]

Sill waiting for initiation and it is 1846 here, cap is remaining very strong.

[spwill]

Hopefully some action this evening for you guys.

[Willoughby]

Hmmm, I dunno...

[

[Orion]

Happy hunting, take care.

[Willoughby]

I think we're getting a taste of what the Mays of 2006 and 2009 were like. Poor conditions with a 'death ridge' setting up.

In Norman, OK but heading west to NM/CO for some landscape photography.

[NZstorm]

Unfortunately the summer pattern has come in early. You would expect at least the northern plains, to catch some action before the end of the month and into June.

Looks like there will be upslope storms over New Mexico/Co early next week.

[Manukau heads obs]

saw this photo of mamma cloud from NE , taken a month ago or so..
http://a4.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos- ... 5708_n.jpg

[spwill]

I have noticed most years the good upper level pattern seems to bomb out by the 2nd week of May ( Will be part of seasonal change) but this year looks worse than usual , hopefully better upper flow by May 20th.

[Manukau heads obs]

I wonder if related to El Nino starting to develop?
(it seems that La Nina is better?)

[NZstorm]

Some storm chasers believe La Nina is better for tornadoes on the USA plains but I have read a scientific paper that disputes the claim, saying neither El Nino or La Nina are more favourable.

[NZstorm]

A very inactive May 2012!
I was over there in 2005 when it was supposedly the first May without a tornado being recorded in Oklahoma. But June of that year had some active days.

[tgsnoopy]

Doh, that's a bummer for my friends over there at the moment. Lets hope it picks up. Of course only on the plains away from populated areas

[Willoughby]

Look at what Tim Marshall's ROTATE (Radar Observations of Tornadoes and Thunderstorms Experiment) meaning has turned into!!

[NZstorm]

Looks like the sun tanning could be over later next week. Models are pointing to an active last week of the month for the plains.

[03Stormchaser]

Video here of a planes wing being struck by lightning as taken from a passenger while in flight. Says its from Texas, not sure when the video was shot.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=7de_1337123908

[Orion]

Labelled "occurred on March 26".
Interesting! Thanks for sharing.

[03Stormchaser]

Good streaming today and I think Willo struck it lucky.

[NZstorm]

Clip from southern Kansas today.