UK Weather - Spring 2012

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I'm off of England, should be there next week.
Maybe interesting to see what the weather is like

[stepr]

Well as it stands; 3 main zones in the UK into next week;

The Northern third of UK; that is Scotland, Northern Ireland and far Northern England look dry and settled, but fairly cool - actually near average though in terms of temperatures.

The central slice; Northern England, North Wales and North Midlands generally look fairly unsettled with some longer spell of rain or showers; quite cool to cold here with below average temperatures quite widely in rainfall.

Southern third of England and Wales; showery, unsettled, but warmer, and perhaps a little humid too, with temperatures into the high teens.

So marked differences in the regions of UK; best place to be for warmth will be southern England; best place for sunny and settled weather; Scotland (away from east coasts). But generally a wise idea to avoid that central area if you can which will be generally cool, dull and unsettled.

Suggestions from the latest model outputs for much much cooler weather into May (if that is possible), with perhaps wintry weather over relative hills. (Reminds me a little of 1997 is that respect; only more persistent!)

[Simon Culling]

CET for April ended up at 7.2*C (-0.7*C) and colder than March (at 8.3*C, +2.6*C). EWR was 149mm compared to an average of 62mm, or 242% of average.

May had a couple of warmer days to start but has been cold and cloudy here in the south with daytime temperatures failing to get above 10*C.....and of course, more rain. Further north, there have been some sharp frosts giving the farmers and gardeners something to worry about. CET is 9.1*C (-0.9*C) up to the 5th and the EWR is on 9mm up to the 4th....average for May is 65mm.

The week ahead should be a little milder, but more heavy rain is expected Weds/Thurs.

[Simon Culling]

CET up to the 8th is 8.9*C (-1.3*C) and the EWR was 18mm up to the 7th....on average for that time of the month.

Some interesting weather in this neck of the woods on Moday 7th May with what looks like to have been a supercell developing in the mid-afternooon and tracking NE across the South Midlands. A tornado appears to have touched down at least times in Oxfordshire. As a regional co-ordinator of TORRO, I will be conducting a site survey at the weekend to gather more information.

http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/969423 ... ss_county/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkMOGlDXD8w

The storm passed just to the north of me around 17:30 with a very turbulent cloud base and an area of significant rotation, but no funnel cloud was observed.

[Orion]

A very nasty-looking sky altogether.

[Manukau heads obs]

I see that warmer weather now for the UK for the last week of May
so its not going to be a record cold may then like some prematurely predicted

[Simon Culling]

Yes indeed, Brian. I was one of those who did not see this warm spell coming. CET up to the 22nd was 10.0*C (still -0.9*C). Both Tuesday and Wednesday have been warm and sunny over most of the UK. Max temps today, Weds were:

28.4*C at Cromdale (Highlands)
27.3*C at Altnaharra (Sutherland)
27.2*C at London Heathrow
26.9*C at Aviemore (Highlands)
26.8*C at Eskdalemuir (Dumfries + Galloway)
26.3*C at Pershore (Worcs)

Highest values were in Scotland and will probably be so again on Thursday. A few thunderstorms were triggered by the Southern Uplands to the south of Edingurgh late in the afternoon.

As the high pressure migrates to the NE, a stronger easterly flow will prevail from Friday giving a cooler but still sunny weekwnd.

[NZstorm]

I see the gfs cranks up the CAPE numbers for the UK today, 1600j/kg.

[NZstorm]

and not a lot happened over the UK convection wise. But having lived there for a few years I know that Britain can get great thunderstorms.

Spain and France get a great summer thunder season.

[Simon Culling]

Hello Steven, the CAPE values are often overestimated in the models and on Thursday there was not a lot of moisture around. The trigger temperature from the soundings was at least 27-28*C and only a few showers and thunderstorms developed over the mountains of Cumbria, the Southern Uplands and the Highlands and none of the Met Office stations caught any of the rain.

Thursday was very warm again for the time of year with max's:

27.5*C at Wisley (SW London)
27.3*C at Glasgow Bishopton, very close to a May record
27.0*C at London Heathrow

Friday (25th May) was also warm, but the easterly breeze shifted the hottest areas to the west. max's were:

28.7*C at Kinlochewe (NW Highlands)
28.5*C at Bournemouth Hurn Airport
28.1*C at Aviemore (Highlands)
27.8*C at Shannon Airport (SW Eire)

Still clear blue skies today (Saturday) and already 22*C at noon here in Milton Keynes and the E breeze is not as brisk as expected. Scottish May record is in danger today, which is 29.0*C at Edinburgh Royal Botanic Gardens on 14th May 1992.

There is a line of thunderstorms extending NW from the NW tip of France at this time, but they will probably only just about flirt with the Scilly Isles this afternoon. Only a small chance at present of this area moving further NE into the mainland during Sun/Mon....it remains dry and sunny.

[Simon Culling]

Both Saturday and Sunday have been warm and sunny across most of the UK, with the mercury reaching 25*C here in Milton Keynes on both days. Highest temps have been 27-28*C somewhere in the UK , making it 6 days in a row now, which is rather unusual for this island at this time of the year.

It is predicted to be warm again tomorrow, but with some moisture and a convergence zone from London north westward to Birmingham, there is scope for a few storms to develop later in the afternoon. I will be right underneath this area.

Wednesday looks interesting as well, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms likely.

[Simon Culling]

CET for May has flipped into positive territory but the MetO site has not yet displayed the final figure. The EWR for May was 56mm which is only 86% of the long term average. Rainfall was above average until the 23rd, but that hot spell changed that.

The Scottish record high temperature did actually fall on the 25th, with 29.3*C recorded at Achnagart, a hamlet just inland from the Kyle of Lockalsh in the NW Highlands.

The last of the hot days was Monday 25th with a high of 27.7*C at Santon Downham (in Norfolk) but it has cooled off since then to much nearer average and the Jubilee celebrations will get a soaking tomorrow (Sunday 2nd June), but I will start a summer (ha ha!) thread for that.

[Simon Culling]

As Promised way back in March, I will bore you with a few snaps from my skiing trip to Val Thorens in the French Alps. The first photo was taken on the afternoon we arrived (Saturday 4th March) in glorious sunshine, but by the following morning it was snowing and rather windy. Good timing bearing in mind we were driving up the hill on the Saturday morning....its not much fun fitting the snow chains in the freezing cold.

[Orion]

Great photos. The building style looks very traditional, though I see the Resort is just forty years old. The webcams show bits of snow still hanging round even now.
Thanks for sharing!

[Simon Culling]

CET for May ended up as 11.7*C (+0.5*C) and the EWR 58mm...only 89% of the average. The week long hot spell at the end of the month more than cancelled out the cold 3 weeks at the start of the month.

Spring as a whole was warmer and wetter than normal, with a CET of 9.1*C (+0.8*C) and an EWR of 238mm which is 118% of normal. The warm spells in March and May stand out as the main climatological events and the tornado in Oxfordshire on 7th May the main meteorological event. More on the tornado later.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes May was an interesting month with it being both cold and warm and with overcasts skies giving way to clear weather although a little hazy. The tornado event on the 7th was during intense thunderstorms over the Oxfordshire and West Berkshire counties that day resulting in with a lot of flooded roads. I didn't see the tormado but what it looked like on the TV and in the paper it seemed that the funnel didn't touch the ground. Personally myself, I thought it was a bit over-rated.