Heavy rain with a sub-tropical low; Upper NI - 22-24 July

[NZstorm]

Both the gfs and ECMRF have rain over the upper North Island Sunday into Monday with a warm front. Looks like a strong NE so maybe some orographic heavy falls over the eastern ranges from Northland to Coromandal to BOP.

[Tornado Tim]

Forecasts are picking an extended trough covering the northern NI with thunderstorm potential early to mid next week.
Certainly something to keep an eye on..

[NZstorm]

We will certainly get some milder air in the north next week with dewpoints up to 16C. Temperatures possibly in the high teens depending on how much sun can pop out.

[trickytiger]

Lovely warm NW wind of 19deg,i see Culverden is only 14deg without the NW,great to see a flush of green grass wityh this warm weather.

Reached 17.6deg at my place in Culverden

[boomer]

Hi guys,
First post here. Be forewarned I'm a bit of a low and TC nut (being from Cairns that is however quite logical). It seems the main models are aligning for the North Island to get a bit of a swipe from the low looking rather rotationally lovely in the Tasman.
Access G is predicting below 1000, while the GFS and EC ensembles are hinting likewise.
Ignore CMC it reckons your up for about 950hpa LOL.
Cheers

PS: Have an interest in NZ by virtue of having worked there for a while.

[NZstorm]

Our Witch-hazel is coming out to bloom already.

I saw a flowering cherry yesterday. It has not been the warmest of winters here though (too many frosts) but sunshine must be up.

[NZstorm]

Looks like a nice lot of subtropical moisture inbound. Heavy falls possible for Bay of Plenty through to Gisborne early week, more particularly if embedded cb's can form on the front.

The airmass looks unstable early to mid week for Northland/Auckland, but with warmish upper level temps there won't be the traditional July coldie storms. So we are looking for shortwaves/convergence to lift the air.

[NZstorm]

GFS accumulated rainfall chart for next 48hrs. Moist onshore flow and a little bit of elevated instability with the front will give Bay of Plenty a good soaking.

[David]

Pretty decent rain here now, 5mm last hour. I see we have a severe weather watch in place, looks like a very wet 24 hours ahead

[spwill]

Mild over Northland today with the dewpoint around 16C , 14C dp here, light to mod rain all day.

[David]

34mm of moderate rain here today, a clearance moving through now.

[spwill]

Looking at the radar the heavy rain here should ease shortly.

Greylynn is showing 12mm in the last hr

[NZstorm]

Upper trough out to NW of Northland is triggering cb's.

[Manukau heads obs]

certainly been heavy here last hour
33mm for the day here now

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Certainly the potential for some very heavy localised falls today for the upper half of the NI. That band over Northern Waikato and just west of Tauranga at the moment has some mighty heavy rates out of it. A local station in Paragon recording 64mm so far today with 14mm in the last hour. Nice line working its way down over Northland now too.

Patchy fog/low cloud here at the moment. Was a funny old stay yesterday with mist all day long here. Not much picked up by the station though.

[spwill]

The airmass over Northland looks unstable, has stopped raining here for now,currently 15C, dp15C, even a little blue sky overhead.

[jamie]

flooding rains here at the moment. soil is saturated from the the 50mm we had last week.

[jamie]

had some near torrential rain there for a while. it seems my station missed it and tim might have caught the edge. it flooded our carpark at work!

[jamie]

sorry if anyone is using the hamilton lightning detector. the farm must have a tape gate on the fence near the house. I will go and find it tonight and stop the "lightning".

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

120mm now for Pahoia (West of Tauranga). Speaking of which, seems Tauranga taking a pounding currently and could do so for several hours. This is the place im watching with interest. Fine day here with little wind.

[NZstorm]

I see Golden Cross in the Coromandel ( near Waihi) got 230mm from this event, so quite a decent rainfall event. This is the second time this month we have had subtropical air producing very heavy rain over the country, fairly unusual in July I think.

[spwill]

The dewpoint temperature is around 16C over northern NZ.
Dry with some sunny spells here,17C, some showers/rain look likely this afternoon

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Metservice hourly obs showing 31.4mm in Cape Reinga in the last hour...the radar doesn't support this. An error? This rain shows no sign of moving off the Tauranga area. A facebook weatherwatch member has reported just shy of 150mm so far by the Kaimai tunnel.

[spwill]

Metservice hourly obs showing 31.4mm in Cape Reinga in the last hour...the radar doesn't support this. .

Not sure the Auckland radar is much good for up there, Satellite shows Cb forming up there
http://www.weatherzone.co.nz/satellite/ ... ye=1&lyf=1

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Metservice hourly obs showing 31.4mm in Cape Reinga in the last hour...the radar doesn't support this. .

Not sure the Auckland radar is much good for up there, Satellite shows Cb forming up there
http://www.weatherzone.co.nz/satellite/ ... ye=1&lyf=1

Yeah I did wonder about that to myself too. I remember when we had the Wilma event early last year or whenever it was that it wasnt picking up the the rain at the far tip of the North Island.