Samoa on alert as Tropical Cyclone Evan approaches
Thursday December 13, 2012 - 06:33 EDT
Storm, hurricane and flood warning have been issued for Samoa as Tropical Cyclone Evan moves closer to the island group.
Cyclone Evan emerged yesterday when a tropical depression deepened 300km southwest of Apia and moved eastward toward the city.
It is centred about 60 nautical miles west of Apia and if it maintains its current course will come within five kilometres of Apia at 2:00 PM local time.
Cyclone Evan has winds of 88 kilometres an hour near its centre, is likely to produce a storm surge of more than three metres and is producing heavy rain.
Samoa Metservice forecaster Mulipola Austalia Titimaea has told Radio Australia's program the island is bracing for higher winds.
"We are also standing by in areas for a hurricane watch - if conditions warrant we could issue a warning for hurricane force winds," he said.
"At the moment as it stands, we are still maintaining a warning for storm force winds, which is up to 70 miles per hour.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 12/2000 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 172.5W AT
121800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 3
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS
TRYING TO WRAP AROUND. THE CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED EASTWARDS BY A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP, YIELDING DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 13.8S 171.7W MOV ENE AT 04 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 13.8S 171.6W MOV E AT 01 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 14.0S 172.2W MOV WSW AT 04 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 14.5S 173.6W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EVAN WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 130200 UTC.
JTWC suggesting a risky situation in Fiji as the storm turns southwest.
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 172.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED CLOUD COVER WITH A
FORMATIVE BAND BUILDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED
UPON THE OBSERVED IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATION BUT REMAINS BELOW THE
RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGESTING 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 04P HAS IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW AS AN APPARENT POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MID-LATITUDE JET IS BEGINNING TO
ENHANCE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05-10
KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC. TC 04P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 04P WILL REMAIN ON AN EASTWARD TRACK FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NER
AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS VWS REMAINS LOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH. AS THE NER WEAKENS AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P TAKES OVER AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 36 IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND
TAU 36 THE STR WILL BUILD LEADING TO TC 04P TRACKING TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72, BUT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS VWS INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE WEAKENING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
Yep. And American Samoa will start to feel the full brunt of it early tomorrow (Thurs) during high tide which could turn into a very dangerous situation.
Some strong wording from NWS Pago Pago:
925 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...WINDS...
TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH
WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 60 TO 70
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS OF 75 TO 95 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO
110 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH BEFORE THURSDAY NOON.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDES...
AS TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN MOVES CLOSER TO AMERICAN SAMOA WATERS
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...COMBINED SEAS AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND SHORES OF AMERICAN SAMOA.
...INLAND FLOODING...
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN UPON AMERICAN SAMOA
WILL BE FROM LONG DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN PASSING SQUALLS. HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 13/1925 UTC 2012 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4
SOUTH 171.6 WEST AT 131800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.4S 171.6W at 131800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS BY
141200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NW QUADRANT http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20008.txt
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH. SYSTEM LIES IN
A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY A DEEP LAYER MEAN
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE CMG SURROUND
YIELDING DT OF 5.0. MET = 5.0, PT = 5.0. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RECURVE THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 06
HOURS BEFORE MOVING IT WEST-SOUTHWEST.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 13.5S 172.3W MOV W AT 03 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 13.8S 173.3W MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 14.3S 174.8W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 14.8S 176.6W MOV WSW AT 09 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
“I understand this is the first time that Apia has had the kind of damage that it is currently receiving, this is according to some of the elderly folks I’ve spoken to.”
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03Z JTWC update has it more on a northern track and are a lot more confident in it's forecast track.
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 172.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTHWEST OF OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION AS FEEDER BANDS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AROUND A 10-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE EYE-FIX WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, NFFN, AND PHFO RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO TRACK WESTWARD AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH HAS ASSUMED STEERING. AFTER TAU 48 THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC
04P WILL SEE MORE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SSTS, REMAIN FAVORABLE.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
VORTEX IN A GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS. THERE IS NOW A HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
HAS EMERGED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. //
Nadi at 03Z agree with a more northern route:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 14/0258 UTC 2012 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 171.9W AT 140000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST 05
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 85 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFIED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE
CMG SURROUND YIELDING DT OF 5.0. MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM WESTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 13.1S 172.8W MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 13.3S 174.4W MOV W AT 07 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 13.8S 176.3W MOV WSW AT 09 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 14.6S 178.4W MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVAN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140800 UTC.
Just a quick question is this the earliest a tropical cyclone has developed in the tropics for the season? or was there others perhaps more back in the November month.
It just seems most cyclones tend to happen from mid December- end of March.
FWIW, this is the fourth named cyclone for the Southern Hemisphere for this season after Anais, Boldwin, and Claudia (All Indian Ocean systems). First for the South Pacific.
I guess the longer it takes to curve more SW, the more its going to pass to the north of Fiji
but then it could still curve even more S later, and still get too close to Fiji
GFS is playing with the idea of it visiting us for xmas
certainly worth watching for that possibility, as it might be able to time it for in between high pressure replacement
(its currently tracking around the high to the east of NZ )
TC's around Fiji have often in the past moved directly south from that position
the fact the high cloud poured south from the developing easterly trough yesterday certainly supports the idea it could move south I would think (i.e the upper level steering is there)
?
Hello my friends... This is Konstantinos from Athens, Greece.... I follow the tropical cyclones around the world... I saw there is chance tropical cyclone Evan will go to Auckland... What is the history of this region about tropical cyclones?
Also, I am looking for friends around the world to discuss about weather, sciences and everything else... If there are social members they can add me on facebook: http://www.facebook.com/konstantinos.kantoutsis
they have tracked south from the Fiji area before
but because its very early in the season, the sea temperatures drop off quickly south of Fiji
(onlu 18 to 19C around the top of NZ at the moment)
so it wont be a cylone as such for long once it gets south of Fiji
i.e it will be low of tropical origin, if it moves down towards NZ
i see its now a cat 5 storm. I have a friend staying at Denarau in Fiji. It will be interesting to talk to him once hes back to see what it was like there.
Cat 5? Source? Hasn't really intensified since leaving Samoan waters... But they are suggesting it will ramp up shortly...
Latest advisory from Nadi:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 16/0734 UTC 2012 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 179.9W AT 160600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST
AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
NW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NE
QUADRANT.
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 24 HOURS OVER LLCC. EYE VISIBLE IN
RADAR IMAGERY. CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBD CENTRE W SURROUND YIELDING DT OF 5.5. MET=5.5, PT=5.5. FT BASED
ON DT. THUS, T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WEAKENING
THEREAFTER.
FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 16.2S 178.2E MOV SW AT 12 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 17.6S 176.5E MOV SW AT 11 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 19.0S 175.6E MOV SW AT 09 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 20.4S 175.3E MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVAN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 161400 UTC.
075016122012.gif
Cyclone warning for Fiji:
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [960HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15 DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 9 EAST OR ABOUT 90 KM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CIKOBIA AND 180 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LABASA AT
8:30 PM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 25
KM/HR. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE
WINDS UPTO 165 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 60 KM
NORTHEAST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 145KM WEST OF LABASA OR ABOUT
165KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI AT 8:30 AM TOMORROW AND 170 KM
SOUTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR 110 KM WEST OF NADI AT 8:30 PM
TOMORROW.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.
FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP: EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO
180 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 240 KM/HR FROM TOMORROW MORNING.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
Basically there might not be much left of the resorts there, and sort of fearing this cyclone may get a bit too close to Nadi.
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