Severe Tropical Cyclone EVAN (Samoa-Fiji)

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 16/12/2012 22:26

Hmmm interesting. I just read stuff.co.nz report. Just assumed they had correct info. The article saying its just gone cat 5 was only updated a bit over an hour ago.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 16/12/2012 22:29

Oh hang on. Now they've changed the article. It's now saying threatening cat 5. So they have back tracked on their announcement of it reaching cat 5.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 17/12/2012 00:38

Evan now has it's eye visible on IR satellite.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 17/12/2012 06:45

looks like its tracking a bit closer to Fiji than predicted yesterday..bad for them...looks nasty ...can see a visible eye alright at the moment...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... wvgms.html

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Mon 17/12/2012 10:59

JTWC currently estimate Evan's central pressure at 937 hPa with 1-min-average winds around 215 km/h (roughly equivalent to 10-min-ave of 190 km/h) and gusts to 260 km/h.
.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 17/12/2012 12:51

Holy moly - looks like Nadi is going to a suffer a direct hit!

Demchy · Unread post by **Demchy** » Mon 17/12/2012 13:18

I see the Herald are wording it "in the top of the scale category 5 cyclone" are they working on a different scale, or are they confusing knots with km/h? In the meantime Nandi airport Speci reports gusts to 50 knots.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 17/12/2012 13:25

Not too sure, but it seems Weather Watch are spreading misinformation about the cyclone - they should NOT be quoting the unoffical JTWC when talking about cyclone strength.

http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/e ... re-cyclone

Don't think my comment will get approved.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 17/12/2012 13:30

but it does have a more defined eye now
so it certainly has intensified more

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 17/12/2012 13:56

has anyone got better links to the radar network. the met.gov.fj website has been failing to load 95% of the time for the past 2 days so im struggling to be able to see the radars.

It is passing much closer than the modelssuggested. Nadi must be on the cusp of the strongest winds.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 17/12/2012 14:09

"Here it comes"

Demchy · Unread post by **Demchy** » Mon 17/12/2012 14:26

NAN Speci now reporting 74 knot gusts

edit: Gusting to 86 knots now

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 17/12/2012 14:32

yes just saw that on my latest refresh..... thats 160km/h!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 17/12/2012 14:34

NFFN 170125Z 14050G86KT 1500 +RA SCT023 SCT044 OVC100 24/24 Q0970 TEMPO 1000 +RA

Hordur · Unread post by **Hordur** » Mon 17/12/2012 14:48

925hPa winds at 0000Z on the 17th according to ECMWF plus a sat image for the same time. Central pressure is estimated at around 945hPa.

evan.JPG

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 17/12/2012 15:01

oh kool Hordur.... can you give us some other images? I can see in your layers box what else you can view. Neat!

Gusts to 90knots now.

166km/h

Hordur · Unread post by **Hordur** » Mon 17/12/2012 15:12

Sorry, I am am bit busy, but I would be even more busy if I was working in Fiji!

SPECI NFFN 170200Z 11045G90KT 1000 +RA SCT023 SCT043 OVC100 24/24 Q0968 TEMPO
1000 +RA RMK RR 16.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 17/12/2012 15:15

http://www.aviador.es/Weather/Decoded_Metar/NFFN
edit, now just a NILL report...

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 17/12/2012 15:21

Thanks Hordur. I understand you guys in Wellington assume Nadi's TCWC obligations if they are unable to operate any longer.

Hordur · Unread post by **Hordur** » Mon 17/12/2012 15:29

Willoughby wrote:Thanks Hordur. I understand you guys in Wellington assume Nadi's TCWC obligations if they are unable to operate any longer.

Yes, that is correct. We keep in touch with Fiji to monitor their status and if they loose their communications we have to take over.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 17/12/2012 16:20

cloud tops have warmed a bit now...might have peaked ie will slowly start to weaken now as it moves over cooler sea temperatures
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/i ... =aus&c=sst
which are too cold south of about the latitude of New Caledonia to fuel a TC anymore

and with sea temperatures between NZ and Fiji along way off that of FEB/MAR, then I would expect it to weaken and become extra tropical by wedensday, i.e there might not be much left of it by the time it gets this far south, i.e it might have rained itself out
but then again TC Drena and Fergus moved over Coromandel/northland area before xmas and had enough rain to cause flash flooding in Tairua (but that was also due to forestry ..logs damming rivers, which burst the banks (forestry management has changed their now to avoid that)

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 17/12/2012 16:41

has been 40 mins since the last METAR. They had been coming through every half hour on the dot. Hopefully its not an outage due to conditions. I was enjoying watching those come in.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 17/12/2012 16:45

Latest radar

Manukau heads obs · Mon 17/12/2012 16:56

they must be using the australian colour scheme...
how do you get red on the rain radar when a cat 4 TC is only green?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 17/12/2012 17:20

This satellite animation shows the warming of the cloud tops well due to the diurnal cycle and land interaction with Viti Levu.

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