Severe Tropical Cyclone EVAN (Samoa-Fiji)

[jamie]

could be famous last words
LOL

all the models show its going to start to zip SW so im expecting it to. I am just surprised we have not seen the movement yet.

Still chuging very very slowly S.

[Manukau heads obs]

I guess it needs to weaken more before it will change course
with it still spinning fast at the center like its been, its hard for its course to change
will also need to wait for the high to intensify more and effectively shunt it more south west
?

edit, the cloud sheet to the south of the system is moving more SW in the last few hours

[Manukau heads obs]

I guess you could look at that tight central fast spinning like a gyroscope...they dont like to change direction

[boomer]

The LLCC is further west than it appears.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
Apart from that I would be looking just NE of Samoa
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[jamie]

I saw that cloud mass around Samoa and thought oh that looks good but Fiji Met 3 day TC outlook say very low chance of TC development in the SW pacific.

[boomer]

Fiji met (while they did an outstanding job) took three to four days prior to recognising Evan's potential.
My pointer here is not that it will develop but that it could... convergence, divergence, SSTs etc ... the ingredients are there as they were with Evan... this however is not modelled and seems further ahead.

[Manukau heads obs]

it did look good overnight, but has weakened alot now, that small low to the NE of samoa