UK Weather - Winter 2012/13

[Simon Culling]

The month has started cold but at least it is dry. A sharp overnight frost on the first day of the month (Saturday) with minimum temps recorded as:

-5.2*C at Larkhill (Wilts) + Topcliffe (N Yorks)
-5.0*C at Church Lawford (Warwicks)
-4.7*C at Santon Downham (Norfolk)
-4.6*C at Bournemouth Airport (Dorset) + Charlwood (Surrey)

Despite the sunny start it was mostly cloudy over England + Wales with a few wintry showers and max temps of 3*C to 5*C.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20565100

Another sharp frost this morning (Sunday 2nd) but it was a glorius sunny and cold day with the frost not melting in places in the shade and the puddles keeping their icy tops.....great fun to crunch! A front is approaching from the SW for tonight and will give a period of snow to more northern areas and a brief milder interlude for Monday before the colder air returns from the NW.

[Simon Culling]

It has remained rather cold and showery, but not much snow countrywide as yet. The snow has been confined to the north and the higher ground, but a weak front moving south across the UK tonight (Tues 4th into Weds 5th) will give a dusting in places, even in the south. Some quite cold air behind the front will give us a sunny but cold day on Wednesday in Milton Keynes with a max of 3 to 4*C. The outlook is rather confused with rain and then colder with showers as we move towards the weekend, but the models are still flirting with a build of pressure over Scandinavia and very cold easterlies developing next week.

CET for December up to the 3rd is 2.9*C (-2.3*C) and just 1mm showing for the EWR up to the 1st! Average rainfall for the month is 96mm.

[Simon Culling]

The weak front I referred to in the last post pepped up o/night Tues into Weds and produced a 1-2cm covering across the northern home counties (Beds, Bucks, Herts, Essex) just before the morning rush hour and produced the usual traffic chaos. It still amazes me how so little snow brings us to a virtual standstill:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-20607092

Here in Milton Keynes we had a slight frost early on Tues evening, but the snow fell between about 04:30 and 05:30 giving us a 2cm cover. The main roads were cleared, but the side roads were like skating rinks. it was dark when I left this morning, so could not get any photos. There is still a covering this evening (Weds) which has already frozen solid. After the cloud cleared after dawn it was a crisp and breezy day with a max of 3*C.

[stepr]

Some very cold nights around the 5th and the 6th.. Loch Glascarnoch in Scotland fell to -11C, whilse Braemar took the title at -12C. In England in was cold too, with temperatures of -9C in the frost hollow of Benson air base.

Generally temperatures where around -5 to -6C in Scotland, and around -4C to -5C in England and Wales.

However a front moved in that night meaning western areas warmed up during the night.

Since then, it has been typical winter weather with a wintry mix of showers, some sunshine and temperatures pretty much what you would expect for the time of year.

Models were hinting at a notable easterly spell of weather, however this has been moderated somewhat, it looks like an average kind of December ahead, as the signals stand.

[Simon Culling]

Yes stepr, the coldest night of the winter so far was overnight 5th/6th with the lowest minimums being:

-12.9*C at Braemar
-10.9*C at Loch Glascarnoch
-10.7*C at Kinbrce
-8.7*C at RAF Benson
-7.9*C at Redesdale + Shap
-6.6*C at Writtle (Essex)
-6.1*C at Pershore

Locally, Woburn fell to -5.4*C. Friday morning saw further wintry weather with some very heavy sleet here on the way to work, causing traffic to slow to a crawl for a while, but both Friday and Saturday have seen plenty of sunshine and not too cold....maxs of 5*C to 6*C on both days. As stepr says, the extent of the cold weather has been scaled back, but it will be pretty cold for most of next week with some sharp frosts and the prospect of a decent snowfall as the mild air pushes in from the south west.

[Simon Culling]

The cold and quiet weather has continued for the last few days and we have seen our first 'ice day' of the winter recorded on Tuesday 11th December, due to persistent freezing fog over England but more to radiational cooling over the Glens of Scotland. Lowest max temps for Tuesday were:

-3.8*C at Braemar (Aberdeenshire)
-2.9*C at Resallach (Sutherland)
-2.1*C at Bala (central Wales)
-1.9*C at Newton Rigg (Cumbria)
-1.0*C at RAF Lyneham (Wilts)
-0.9*C at High Wycombe (Bucks) + Pershore
-0.5*C at Woburn (Bedfordshire)

The night was not especially cold, with the lowest temp of -10.6*C at Tulloch Bridge in Scotland and -6.5*C at Pershore in England. The short days and the fog did the rest.


Here in Milton Keynes it was foggy all day with a max of -1*C after a morning minimum of -3*C, although the mercury was down to -4*C by midnight....and still foggy.

[Simon Culling]

Wednesday 12th December was another ice day for inland parts of England + Wales and Scotland, with the freezing fog thankfully mostly clearing. Max temps recorded at Met Office stations were:

-3.7*C at Claunie Inn (Highland)
-1.9*C at Pershore College (Worcs)
-1.7*C at Reading University (Berkshire)
-1.3*C at Little Rissington (Glos) and RAF Leeming (N Yorks)

O/night lows had been -11.3*C at Braemar, -8.3*C at Little Rissington, -7.5*C at Woburn and -7.9*C at S Newington

Here in Milton Keynes it started foggy at -7*C, but this cleared at 7:30am revealing a winter wonderland of frost and rime. Unfortunately, there was too much traffic on the way to work to stop and get any photos, so I took a few at work, but that is on a small industrial estate so not very photogenic. A walk in the countryside would have been fantastic....its a pity it was not the weekend.....when it is going to be mild and showery!

[Simon Culling]

Thursday (13th Dec) was another 'ice day' in Milton Keynes with a max of just -1*C. It was clear and frosty overnight (min of -6*C) but cloudied over soon after dawn and remained cloudy for the rest of the day. There was a little freezing drizzle in the evening, but warmer air arrived by Friday morning and planty more rain and it has been cool and changeable since.

CET up to the 17th is 3.0*C (-1.9*C) and the EWR up to the 16th is 52mm, which is just a little above the curve....the first 10 days had been quite dry.

The models are predicting a lot of rain between now and Christmas which will lead to more flooding because the ground is still rather saturated from all the rain in November. There are some suggestions of a fall in temperature as we move through the festive season.

[Simon Culling]

Time permits only a brief entry here today, but suffice to say, its been very wet here in the UK for the last week with the misery of flooding coming to some.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20829807

There is unfortunately more to come in the next 7-10 days, although it will be a little cooler than the balmy 14*C reached yesterday (Sat 22nd)

CET for December is 3.8*C (-1.1*C) up to the 22nd and rising quickly and the EWR is 104mm up to the 21st, already ahead of the monthly average of 96mm, continuing the run of wet months

[stepr]

It is becoming a very wet month actually, a few records could be broken, and it looks like we'll see the old record chart out on the BBC weather forecasts comes the end of the month. Since mid-month there haven't been any frosts to speak of.. there may be one or two isolated ones before the end of the month, but it will have been a year which is dominated by average temperatures overall, and very wet conditions, particularly pronounced in the summer-Autumn period.

Locally, apart from the rainfall total, this year has featured very little in the way of very extreme or 'interesting' weather. To me it was a wetter, cooler version of the preceding year.

[Simon Culling]

Happy New Year to all at NZ Weather Forum.

CET for December up to the 30th is now 4.8*C (+0,1*C), so the much milder weather since mid month has wiped out the cold start. EWR up to the 30th is a whopping 166m, which is 174% of the monthly average, reflecting the long wet spell of the second half of the month.

The Met Office states that England has had its wettest year on record (up to 26th Dec) with a country average of 1095.8mm. This is from a digital record extending back to only 1910.

The total for the UK as a whole up to the 26th Dec is 1291.1mm which is only 46.1mm short of the record set in 2000. it will be a close run thing as the last 5 days of the year were rather wet. There will not be any repeat of the drought fears next summer!!!

[Janos]

Maybe a more interesting spell of weather on the horizon for mid January. Fingers crossed but that Atlantic might re-visit and do what it did to the Beast from the East (I do enjoy that term).

[Simon Culling]

Hello Janos, I presume you are hinting at the expected SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming event) that has just started in the Northern Hemisphere and is forecast to become quite strong by mid-month. Recent research suggests a strong link between this and northern blocking which might result in some cold weather in the UK (and NW Europe) from mid January. The Met Office are going for a high pressure dominated month in there long range forecast with a gradual fall off in temperatures. More info in link below:

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/12/3 ... uary-2013/

Currently, we have a 'Bartlett High' developing to the south of the UK (extending from Biscay into southern Europe) and this will give at least 3 to 5 days of cloudy mild weather, but at least it will be dry.

[Janos]

Hi Simon thats a very good explanation and link thanks. I think alot of people will be quietly or not so quietly watching this event with some interest.

[stepr]

Personally I'm a little sceptical on the SSW event, not so much in that it can affect the blocking highs, but in the case that they don't always deliver that cold potential to the UK. I recall a few SW events in the past which have not delivered the desired effect, however there are equally as many that have (for example last year in February 2011, that will quite marked one), but ultimately in a place that really favoured central and eastern Europe for cold.

[Simon Culling]

As I mentioned in my first post on SSW's, there is the potential for them to initiate northern blocking and that this might bring colder weather to the UK. It obviously depends on the position of the blocking high, but the 'cold rampers' are already getting excited! There are suggestions now in the models of a blocking high developing over Scandinavia in the third week of January, but these remain in FI.

2012 turned out to be the second wettest for the UK as a whole on a record extending back to 1910. The Met Office have provided a preliminary summary:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... statistics

It might be a bit premature to say that a 5% increase in rainfall is a real trend.

It is very mild here at the moment with 14.3*C recorded at Kinlochewe (NW Highlands) and 13.4*C at Rhyl (North Wales) yesterday (Weds 2nd Jan).

[Janos]

I guess one things for certain though....in a couple of weeks time the max temperature will not be 14.3dg. We can expect at the least some cold weather.

[Simon Culling]

The Polar Vortex has split as predicted and the SSW event continues to gather momentum. The two links below show the vortex two weeks ago compared to today:

Two weeks ago - 10 hPa chart

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/uamap?R ... 2012122300

0000GMT on 6th Jan - 10 hPa chart

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/uamap?R ... 2013010600

This will likely result in mid-high latitude blocking in the northern hemisphere, but the exact location will determine the weather at any point on the surface. Here in Milton Keynes it has been yet another cloudy dull day (Sunday 6th Jan) with fog until lunchtime and a max of 9*C, so not cold yet. A change is due Tuesday with rain spreading eastward across the UK with cooler air and a build of high pressure behind with some frost and SUNSHINE... The interesting stuff starts Friday onwards as the models are predicting a build of pressure over Scandinavia and an extension of the cold Eurasian air WESTWARDS to the UK. Its not nailed on yet, but even the Met Office TV forecasts are now telling us to prepare for the cold to come!

[Simon Culling]

To get an idea how quickly the temperature is rising in the northern hemisphere stratosphere, have a look at this from the link below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... mb9065.gif

[Simon Culling]

CET for January up to the 7th is 7.8*C (+4.2*) reflecting the mild cloudy weather we have been experiencing. Also dry, with the EWR just 3mm up to the 6th. The average for the month is 91mm.

The models are all over the place at the moment, but there is growing conviction that much colder weather will be arriving by the weekend, with many solutions suggesting a low pressure over Southern England with increasing chances of snow on its northern edge. After this, there is a reasonable chance of easterly winds and some even colder weather.....although the way the models are acting, this could still change over the next few days. What is definite is that it will not be as mild as it has been...today (Tues 8th) maximum temps were 12.7*C at Shannon Airport (Eire), 12.2*C at Boulmer (Northumberland), 12.0*C at Prestwick (Ayrshire) + Rhyl (N Wales) and Dublin Airport. Locally, it reached 11.1*C at Brize Norton and 10.5*C at Bedford. Won't be seeing these temperatures for a while...

[Simon Culling]

The cold weather is now arriving, although there remains plenty of uncertainty as to how things will pan out over the next week or so. The last couple of days (Thurs + Fri 10th/11th Jan) have been mostly misty and foggy, although we did have some sunshine today, and rather cold with max temps of 2*C and 4*C respectively.....after slight overnight frosts. A low is expected to move east just to the south of England tomorrow and begin to pull in some colder air from the continent with a little snow over southern England for Saturday and Sunday, but a low sliding down the west side of the UK on Monday will likely bring a longer period of snow to the eastern side of England. We are all looking forward to the road problems that will bring!

[Simon Culling]

Some snow duly arrived this morning (Monday 14th) in Milton Keynes but only 1cm in the morning increasing to 2cm during the day. The temperature only reached 2*C late this afternoon, but all the snow and slush will freeze hard tonight. The snow mostly fell in the east of England, with 10-15cm in parts of Yorkshire and Norfolk, but colder weather will set in tomorrow onwards as the winds turn more to the NE with the prospect of a battle royal between the cold air and milder weather coming in from the SW at the weekend. These situations can give us our best blizzards.

The snow today caused surprisingly little disruption:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21004656

CET for January up to the 13th is down to 5.8*C (+2.3*C) and falling fast, but the EWR up to the 12th is only 15mm.

[Simon Culling]

Tuesday (15th Jan) was another cold day but mostly dry over the UK. An area of heavy snow showers (with some thundersnow) crossed the counties of Norfolk and Suffolk in the afternoon giving 5cm+ of snow in an hour and a drop in temperature in the evening as the cloud cleared to -10*C at a number of stations. The coldest spots are in the east of the UK, but the far SW + NW remain surprisingly mild (max temps 5-7*C). Lowest max's on Tuesday:

-1.1*C at Craibstone (Aberdeenshire)
-0.1*C at Wattisham (Suffolk)
0.8*C at Bedford
1.1*C at Kenley Aerodrome (South London)

The Met Office is firming up on the anticipated 'blizzard' for Fri/Sat with predictions of quite widespread snowfalls of 15cm+. A lot can still happen between now and then!

[Simon Culling]

Wednesday (16th Jan) continued the cold theme with some very low temperatures overnight in the county of Norfolk following the heavy thundersnow on Tuesday afternoon. Minimums recorded included:

-13.2*C at Buxton
-13.1*C at RAF Marham
-12.1*C at Houghton Hall

It was also a cold day, with low maximum temperatures recorded in central and eastern England:

-4.3*C at RAF Scampton (Lincs)
-4.0*C at RAF Waddinton + RAF Conongsby
-3.2*C at Bedford
-3.1*C at Stowe
-2.8*C at RAF Brize Norton

It was a cold and mostly foggy day in Milton Keynes with a max temp of just -3*C with plenty of hoar frost building during the day. Overnight low had been -5*C.

[Simon Culling]

The freezing fog cleared overnight into Thursday morning but the hoar frost and rime persisted as the minimum temp was -5*C. Just after dawn a small break occurred in the stratocumulus sheet right on the east horizon allowing a little very low down sunshine that lit up the frost on the trees with a wonderful pink glow. It only lasted 10 minutes but I managed to get a couple of poor quality snaps with the company camera! The first is with the flash and the second without. Neither reflects the beauty of seeing it naturally.