Pacific: Tropcial Cyclone Freda

[boomer]

All models are indicating a decent size TC to form and affect the New Cal and Vanuatu region.
GFS is the most definite.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?M ... sl&C2=pmsl

[boomer]

This really looks like game on… however shear is a potential issue.
Upper divergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
Lower convergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
Shear
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
Methinks a drop to the south then an easterly ish track... probably wrong

[boomer]

SH94…. 167E…. 6.6S now slowly heading NNW
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=SH942013
Convection clearly there
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .99pc.html
It is in a really good place. Give it time.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[jamie]

Will be interesting what even happens to this. GFS hinting at it moving the the east of us as an intense storm. If the incoming high to the west slows it could encourage the storm to cross the upper NI.

Then again ECMWF has it fizzing out over New Caledonia and not making it out of the tropics at all.

MetService UK met model doesn't have the storm on their map at all, but it could be beyond the boundary of the image.

Long way out but interesting to watch none the less.

[Nev]

Tropical Cyclone Freda was officially named by RSMC Nadi this morn (despite a certain local 'weather news authority' prematurely naming it yesterday). Note that it's that close to 160°E that it could have just as easily been named TC Mitchell by the BoM...

STORM WARNING 066 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 28/1749 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5
SOUTH 160.3 EAST AT 281700 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.5S 160.3E at 281700 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 291700 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.3S 159.9E AT 290500 UTC
AND NEAR 12.9S 159.9E AT 291700 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 065

[Manukau heads obs]

Certainly will be one to watch alright

[littleheaven]

Latest ECMWF now has it hitting the coast of Australia somewhere around Bundaberg.

[Vertigo]

Thats quite a swing - probably an anomaly, but worth a close watch.

[littleheaven]

You're right - the next run has it fizzing out in the tropics.

[Nev]

RSMC Nadi had Freda at Cat 2 early this arvo and BoM expecting Cat 3 tomorrow arvo …

HURRICANE WARNING 068 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 29/0126 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3 SOUTH
159.8 EAST AT 290000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.3S 159.8E at 290000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY
300000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.0S 159.4E AT 291200 UTC
AND NEAR 14.1S 159.5E AT 300000 UTC.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0721 UTC 29/12/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Freda
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 0430 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 159.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [194 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/1630: 13.2S 159.5E: 055 [100]: 060 [110]: 975
+24: 30/0430: 13.5S 159.5E: 080 [145]: 070 [130]: 965
+36: 30/1630: 14.1S 159.7E: 100 [180]: 075 [140]:
+48: 31/0430: 14.8S 159.6E: 120 [220]: 075 [140]:
+60: 31/1630: 15.7S 159.3E: 140 [255]: 070 [130]:
+72: 01/0430: 16.5S 159.2E: 155 [290]: 065 [120]:
REMARKS:
Cyclone has intensitified in a weak shear environment, possibly assisted by an
upper level trough well to the west.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[scottdeb]

Looking very pretty on MTSAT tonight. Nice big eye just developed last two hours. She's certainly got everyone guessing including the models. Lovely storm.

[Vertigo]

Looking great currently

[Nev]

Yes, RSMC Nadi have Freda at Cat 3 this morn...

HURRICANE WARNING 073 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 29/1912 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 955HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5
SOUTH 160.4 EAST AT 291800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 13.5S 160.4E at 291800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS BY
301200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.3S 160.5E AT 300600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.2S 160.3E AT 301800 UTC.

And yes, even JTWC admit they have low confidence in their own forecast this morn due to the weak steering environment and poor agreement between models…

WTPS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 003//
...
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 160.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED
SYSTEM WITH A 6 NM EYE THAT HAS RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE IR
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE HIGHER END OF AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS. TC 05P HAS MAINTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CORAL SEA. TC 05P HAS BEEN TRACKING ERRATICALLY
TAKING A QUASISTATIONARY TRACK ON THE 06Z POSITION AND NOW MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) WITH A
GENERAL TRACK MOTION SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNTIL A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL FORCE
A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN POOR AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO BE ERRATIC. GFDN CONTINUES TO
DRIVE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND EGRR ERRATICALLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
INITIALLY TO THE WEST AND THEN TAKES A QUICK TURN TO THE EAST IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

[jamie]

it must be quite rare for the models to be so different with this storm. They are still all holding their own. Which will be correct.... time will tell.

fingers crossed something like GFS is right for a bit of action weather.

[Nev]

Freda currently at Cat 4...

HURRICANE WARNING 074 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 30/0121 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1 SOUTH
160.7 EAST AT 300000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 14.1S 160.7E at 300000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 100 KNOTS
BY 301200.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTREEXPECT WINDS AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.1S 160.7E AT 301200 UTC
AND NEAR 16.0S 160.5E AT 310000 UTC.

[Nev]

RSMC Nadi downgraded Freda to Cat 3 very early this morn as she approaches New Caledonia…

HURRICANE WARNING 086 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 31/1302 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 967HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7
SOUTH 161.7 EAST AT 311200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.7S 161.7E AT 311200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY
011200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.6S 161.7E AT 010000 UTC
AND NEAR 19.6S 161.9E AT 011200 UTC.

WTPS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 007//
…
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 161.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS
AND THE LOSS OF ALL BANDING FEATURES. A 310906Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE TRMM IMAGE AND
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING
TREND AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A JET MAX
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05P IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW CALEDONIA THROUGH TAU 96 DUE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OVER AUSTRALIA, MOVING IN AND WEAKENING THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 96 A DEEP-LAYERED STR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM GIVING TC 05P A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BIAS. TC 05P WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG VWS AND
COOL (24 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
NEW CALEDONIA, FURTHER DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH TAU 72 BUT NOW
SHOWS THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN DUE TO ECMWF LOSING THE VORTEX NEAR NEW
CALEDONIA. NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS ALL SHOW THIS GENERAL TURN IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STR THAT IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS
40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

[Nev]

HURRICANE WARNING 088 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 31/1901 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5
SOUTH 162.0 EAST AT 311800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.5S 162.0E AT 311800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 60 KNOTS BY
011800 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.4S 161.9E AT 010600 UTC
AND NEAR 20.3S 162.1E AT 011800 UTC.

[Nev]

Freda now at Cat 2, although it looks like she's pretty much a gone-burger. Convection almost completely sheared with LLC exposed…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 01/0201 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 975HPA CAT 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S
161.3E AT 010000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO
SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT. OUTFLOW REMAINS
GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 28 DEGRESS CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN OF DISTANCE 10NMI INTO DEEP
CONVECTION EDGE YIELDING DT=3.5. MET=3.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT,
THUS YEILDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT AND THEN SOUTHEAST
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 19.5S 161.2E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 20.3S 161.8E MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 20.9S 163.0E MOV SE AT 06KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 21.4S 164.2E MOV ESE AT 06KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 010800 UTC.

WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 008//
...
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 161.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AS THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, NFFN, AND PHFO. A RECENT 312256Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND RANGED FROM 45 TO 50 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN A
STEADY DECLINE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE LLCC WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AROUND TAU 24. THIS
WEAKENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND A DECREASE IN THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96 A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TC 05P TO TRACK
WESTWARD, AND WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN VWS. WITH MARGINAL SSTS AND
DECREASING VWS, THE LLCC WILL REMAIN A WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM THROUGH
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN

[Nev]

Down to Cat 1 last night, but there may be a little life in her yet...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 01/1400 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 989HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S
161.7E AT 011200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 2
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE NE QUADRANT, WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SE
QUADRANT AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO
SOUTHEAST. CLOUD TOP WARMING PAST 3 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 27 DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
SHEARED PATTERN OF DISTANCE 55 NMI INTO DEEP CONVECTION EDGE YIELDING
DT=2.5. MET=3.0 AND PT=2.5 FT BASED ON PT, THUS YEILDING
T2.5/3.0/W2.0/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING
IT.
…

WTPS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 009//
…
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
CORROBORATED BY A 010951Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS, SHOWS THE MAIN
CONVECTION SHEARED AND ERODED SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI-S IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05P IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO THE HIGH VWS; HOWEVER, AFTER TAU
48, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD. AN INCREASE IN OUTFLOW AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN VWS WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM AT THE EXTENDED
TAUS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WIDELY DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48
AND OFFER VARYING RECURVATURE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 48 AND THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
TC 05P WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z AND 021500Z. //
NNNN

[Nev]

Freda's now an Ex-Tropical Cyclone, although I'm not sure that I'd completely write her off just yet?

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A23 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 01/1912 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F EX-TC FREDA CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.8S 163.1E AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLOUD
TOPS WARMING WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECREASING PAST 6 HOURS AND BEING
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRNOMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 75 NM FROM CONVECTION YIELDING DT=2.0.
MET=2.5 AND PT=2.0 FT BASED ON DT, THUS YEILDING T2.0/2.5/W2.5/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT AND FURTHER
WEAKENING.

THIS WILL THE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TC FREDA.

[Vertigo]

That shear is really killing it, but at the same time its trying its hardest to get the convection going over the LLCC. Poor bugger, it would be a nice storm if not for the environment its in..

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Freda's now an Ex-Tropical Cyclone, although I'm not sure that I'd completely write her off just yet?

ECMWF had it hanging around as a depression for a while, in it's model last night . Haven't checked up the latest.