Looks the Sth Pacific's 3rd developing TC this season will be named later this morn and is tracking directly towards Samoa…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A03 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 20/1336 UTC 2013 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 176.0W
AT 201200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500 HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, GIVING
DT=2.5. MET=2.5 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
…
WTPS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192000ZJAN2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 176.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
...
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 176.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AND ORGANIZE AROUND AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 200952Z
ASCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF HAVE BUILT TO 35
KNOTS, AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHEAST OF
AN ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5 TO
10 KNOTS) WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC, RANGING FROM 28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES AMERICAN
SAMOA BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE
SSTS. AN INCREASE IN VWS AND INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AROUND
TAU 120. BASED ON THIS BEING THE INITIAL FORECAST THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 192000Z JAN 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 192000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z
AND 211500Z.//
NNNN
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TC Garry was nammed by RSMC Nadi yesterday evening...
STORM WARNING 064 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 21/0542 UTC 2013 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3
SOUTH 172.8 WEST AT 210500 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.3S 172.8W at 210500 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 14 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 220500 UTC.
...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A08 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 21/1334 UTC 2013 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S
171.8W AT 211200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
OVERRALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTANT NEAR
LLCC PAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM. GARRY IS BEING
STEERED EASTWARDS BY WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND.SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL,
GIVING DT=3.0. MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
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