Tropical Cyclone Sandra - Coral Sea

[Nev]

As expected, TC Sandra was named by the BoM this morn...

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:44 am EST on Friday 8 March 2013
At 4 am EST Friday, Tropical Cyclone Sandra (Category 1) with central pressure
989 hPa was located near latitude 15.0 south longitude 156.0 east, which is
about 660 km east northeast of Willis Island and 990 km northeast of Mackay.

The cyclone is moving northeast at about 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra, a category 1 cyclone, has formed in the eastern Coral
Sea. Sandra is expected to continue moving east during the next 24 hours while
intensifying. On Saturday Sandra is expected to turn southward. Current
indications are that the system will remain well out to sea until at least the
middle of next week.

[spike_01]

Just saw it has formed.. Will be interesting to see where she heads to..

[03Stormchaser]

Seems like the models arnt all agreeing on its path yet but is looking like heading south then back toward the ozzie coast. I think the current weather pattern over NZ is the blame for this...

[Tornado Tim]

Interesting developments on Sandra shown by the Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery by CIMSS:
Last 48 hours animation attached (6 MB):

[Nev]

Sandra has just been upgraded to Cat 2 and both the BoM and JTWC have her approaching New Caledonia as a Cat 4 early next week. ECMWF, which is probably the most reliable long-term model IMHO, has been consistent with the remnants of Sandra closely encountering the top of the NZ next weekend.

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:49 am EST on Saturday 9 March 2013
At 4 am EST Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Sandra (Category 2) with central
pressure 985 hPa was located near latitude 15.3 south longitude 157.8 east,
which is about 1250 km east northeast of Townsville and 700 km south southwest
of Honiara.

The cyclone is moving east southeast at about 8 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 2, is situated over the eastern Coral and is
moving gradually in an east to southeast direction. Tropical Cyclone Sandra is
expected to continue to move in this direction over the next couple of days
while intensifying further.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra currently poses no threat to the Australian coast.

[Nev]

BoM upgraded Sandra to Cat 3 early this morn before handing the reins over to RSMC Nadi.
Models remain divided, but latest ECMWF run now have her remnants crossing the central North Island from W to E next weekend…

WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 006//
...
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 160.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER PAST
TWELVE HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW COMPLETELY WRAPPING AROUND A
15NM RAGGED EYE. THIS IS READILY APPARENT IN A 092248Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE READILY VISIBLE EYE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES,
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS AMPLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WITHIN
A LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 19P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A POLEWARD-ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INCREASE TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72,
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A FURTHER
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
DIFFERENT SETS OF SOLUTIONS. GFS, GFDN AND NAVGEM FAVOR A SHARPER
TURN TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE ECMWF, EGRR AND JGSM
TEND TO SHOW A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DUE TO THIS BIFURCATION OF THE MODELS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT STORM MOTION. DUE TO
THIS SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS NOW LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//

[Manukau heads obs]

Thanks nev for updates
We are in turangi this week,attending a funeral sadly
Driest I have seen waikato on way down.let's hope
We get rain from Sandra

[Nev]

Sandra upgraded to Cat 4 an hour or two ago - 940 hPa - very tight wrapping in the last few hours...

[Nev]

Sandra downgraded to Cat 3 overnight. Central pressure 945 hPa (peaking at around 930 hPa yesterday).

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 11/1349 UTC 2013 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA 17F CENTRE 945HPA CAT 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3S 162.1E AT 111200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 85 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE
47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 150
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS DETERIORATED PAST 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE
IN THE AERIAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. EYE CLOUD FILLED AND NO
LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN IR. OUTFLOW GOOD ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES. SANDRA TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBD CENTRE WITH MG SURROUND YIELDING DT 4.0. PT=4.0 AND MET=4.5. FT
BASED ON MET THUS, T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24HRS.

MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING.
...

[tgsnoopy]

Please Sandy, bring us some rain

[Tornado Tim]

Sandra doesn't have much organisation anymore, looks to be rapidly weakening.

[Nev]

Yep, dry air to the W and N and increasing vertical wind-shear as she picks up speed towards the S are taking their toll. Sandra down Cat 2 overnight and central pressure up around 978 hPA...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 12/1404 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA 17F CENTRE 978HPA CAT 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.8S 161.8E AT 121200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
9 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWEST
QUADRANT, WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 280 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH.
SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNDER MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES. SANDRA TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.9 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.5, PT AND
MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS.

MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.

WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 011//
…
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A RAPID LOSS OF ORGANIZATION TO THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE EIR DOES INDICATE THE LLCC REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED,
BUT IS STARTING TO BE IMPACTED BY DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AS INDICATED BY ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO AND NFFN. TC 19P HAS BEEN STEADILY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH THE LLCC STARTING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND
TAU 36 AND COMPLETING THE PROCESS BY TAU 72. DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALREADY HIGH LEVELS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.//

[Nev]

Down to Cat 1 earlier this arvo. LLCC almost fully exposed now...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/0140 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA 17F CENTRE 987HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.4S 161.5E AT 130000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT VISHR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATTION AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. LLCC EXPOSED. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES. SANDRA TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 55 NM FROM
DENSE OVERCAST YIELDING DT 2.0, PT = 2.0 AND
MET = 2.5. FT BASED ON MET THUS, T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.

MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.

WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 012//
…
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 161.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS BECOME ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CONVECTION HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND SHEARED SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
PHFO, AND NFFN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40) KNOT
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK UNTIL IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND BECOMES A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 48. TC 19P WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS STRONG VWS PERSISTS AND SSTS DROP TO BELOW 25 CELSIUS AFTER
TAU 24. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC SANDRA WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE END OF FORECAST DUE TO THE HIGH VWS AND LOW SSTS. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
DESPITE THE MODERATE SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z AND 140300Z. //

[Nev]

Interesting development. BoM expect Sandra to reintensify to Cat 2 as it approaches Lord Howe Island tomorrow arvo…

aIDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 3:01 pm EST on Wednesday 13 March 2013

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for Lord Howe Island.

At 3:00 pm EDT Tropical Cyclone Sandra, Category 1 was estimated to be
900 kilometres north northeast of Lord Howe Island and
860 kilometres northwest of Norfolk Island and
moving south at 15 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 1, is situated over the central Coral Sea and
is moving to the south. The latest forecasting guidance suggests a weak
category 1 system will continue tracking south over the next 24 hours. It is
then expected to reintensify into a system with category 2 impacts during
Thursday afternoon as it approaches Lord Howe Island.

Very rough seas, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected to develop
about Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday. This may lead
to beach erosion.

Gales with damaging gusts to about 110 km/hr are expected to develop on Lord
Howe Island during Thursday. Destructive wind gusts up to 150km/hr will then
possibly develop late Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are also expected to
develop over Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday.
...

[Nev]

Sandra still at Cat 1 and BoM still optimistic it may strengthen as it approaches Lord Howe Island, which is amazing at around 32S. Meanwhile a another tropical low over the NW Coral Sea could become a TC tonight or tomorrow morn.

WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 013//
...
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN FULLY
EXPOSED FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS BUT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. A RECENT
131015Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ABOVE THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND NFFN, WHICH INDICATE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND HAS NEARLY SEPARATED THE CENTRAL CORE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE LARGER SOURCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST ARE CREATING HIGH LEVELS (30 TO 40
KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). CONTINUED INFLOW OF DRY AIR AND
HIGH VWS WILL START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AND WILL BE FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 36. BASED ON
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 5:16 am EST on Thursday 14 March 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for Lord Howe Island.

At 5 am EDT Tropical Cyclone Sandra, Category 1 was estimated to be
545 kilometres north northeast of Lord Howe Island and
650 kilometres west northwest of Norfolk Island and
moving south at 24 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 1, is situated over the central Coral Sea and
is moving to the south. The system is expected to strengthen as it approaches
Lord Howe Island and category 2 impacts are possible across the island during
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Damaging surf, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected to develop
about Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday. This may lead
to beach erosion.

Gales with damaging gusts to about 110 km/hr are expected to develop on Lord
Howe Island during Thursday morning. Destructive wind gusts up to 150km/hr are
possible during Thursday afternoon and evening.

Areas of heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are possible over Lord
Howe Island during Thursday and Friday.
…

Details of Tropical Cyclone Sandra at 5 am EDT:
.Centre located near...... 27.2 degrees South 161.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

[Nev]

Although now officially in RSMC Wellington's AOR, which also still has Sandra as a TC, BoM upgraded her to Cat 2 earlier this arvo…

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 3:49 pm EST on Thursday 14 March 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for Lord Howe Island.

At 2:00 pm EDT Tropical Cyclone Sandra, Category 2 was estimated to be
245 kilometres northeast of Lord Howe Island and
670 kilometres west of Norfolk Island and
moving south at 35 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 2, is situated over the northern Tasman Sea
and is moving to the south. The system is expected to maintain category 2
strength for the remainder of today, but will weaken during Friday morning as
it passes to the east of Lord Howe Island.

Damaging surf, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected about Lord
Howe Island for the remainder of today and through Friday. This may lead to
beach erosion.

Gales with damaging gusts to 125 km/hr are now developing on Lord Howe Island
and wind gusts to about 100 km/hr are forecast to persist until Friday evening.
Destructive wind gusts up to 150km/hr are possible from late this afternoon
through until the early hours of Friday.

Areas of heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are possible over Lord
Howe Island for the remainder of today and into the early hours of Friday
morning. Rainfall is forecast to ease significantly during Friday morning.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Sandra at 2:00 pm EDT:
.Centre located near...... 30.2 degrees South 161.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 35 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 979 hectoPascals

[Nev]

Sandra's reintensification appears to have peaked late yesterday evening, with BoM downgrading her to Cat 1 earlier this morn, followed by their final tropical cyclone advisory a few hours later. I expect MetService will declare her an Ex-TC in their next update…

MetService Subtropic high seas forecast

STORM WARNING 277
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone SANDRA [987hPa] centre was located near 31.7 South 161.3 East at 141800 UTC.
Position Good.
Repeat position 31.7S 161.3E at 141800 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southsoutheast 5 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre easing to 45 knots by 150600 UTC and then easing to 40 knots by 151800 UTC with high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell easing.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the sector from east through south to north with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast position near 32.5S 161.8E at 150600 UTC
and near 33.0S 162.0E at 151800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 271.

Issued at 7:42am Friday 15 Mar 2013

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 5:44 am EST on Friday 15 March 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for Lord Howe Island.

At 6:00 am EDT Tropical Cyclone Sandra, Category 1 was estimated to be
210 kilometres east of Lord Howe Island and
700 kilometres west southwest of Norfolk Island and
moving south at 10 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 1, is situated over the northern Tasman Sea
and is moving to the south. The system is expected to weaken further during
Friday morning as it moves away from Lord Howe Island on a south southeasterly
track.

This will be the final tropical cyclone advice for this system, however severe
weather is still expected to continue over Lord Howe Island through Friday. In
particular, damaging winds with gusts to 100 km/hr are likely to persist until
Friday evening; and damaging surf, heavy swells and abnormally high tides,
which may lead to beach erosion, are expected through Friday.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Sandra at 6:00 am EDT:
.Centre located near...... 31.7 degrees South 161.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals