Possible thunder

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 27/01/2005 21:36

I'm thinking Mon/Tues next week might produce some inland Storms providing there is good heating.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 27/01/2005 23:24

Iam honestly not Jelious of Australia's Thunderstorms latly

.
They have had some nice severe ones wouldn't mind being in some like them

but hey lets just get through these highs because there's bound to be some intersting but unsettled weather coming up.
WOULD SOMEONE PLEASE DO A RAIN DANCE COZ THIS WEATHER IS A LITTLE BORING BUT NICE ON THE OTHER HAND.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 28/01/2005 07:20

Looking too dry for convection in Otago today. I'm not happy with the moisture situation to be predicting storms.

I agree with spwill, early next week could be interesting.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 30/01/2005 12:13

I notice Met Service acknowledge a slight convective risk over Otago/Southland this afternoon in there convective statement. Interestingly the inversion that was present yesterday is gone today and there is again potential for high temperatures inland. But the air still looks a bit dry for initiation of cb's, coupled with the impact of reduced heating from high cloud.

Likely to see isolated thunderstorms in the coming week over this region as it is very likely moisture levels will increase in the coming days.

Just add that dew points of atleast 15-16C would be required.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 31/01/2005 10:14

Today is one of the first times I've actually seen some castellanus forms in the morning.

I'm not sure if it's indicative of anything possibly thundery this afternoon? On the Invercargill sounding I see some ok instability from the lower to mid levels which I'm guessing is the result of what I'm seeing this morning. Above that looks to be stable though unless we get the temp and dewpoint to creep up a bit. That lower inversion has eroded away as can be seen in the previous sounding via the blue lines:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/reg/IDS6 ... ml#_bottom

Username: bomw0007
Password: aviation

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 31/01/2005 10:40

Yes, some instability there under 500hpa. I am wondering though whether it will still be there on todays midday sounding. Anyway, that instability would result in scattered showers inland Southland/Otago this afternoon, if it stuck around.

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Mon 31/01/2005 13:05

re those BOM sounding diagrams...
where do they got the Ts and Ds readings?? the Whenuapai ones are usually way different to my ground readings not too far away, and they dont correspond with the actual sounding start values.. often they seem to reflect what it may become later in the day, but not always... and yet they still uncannily seem to give a LI that reflects real stability...
just wondering if anyones knows...

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 31/01/2005 13:25

It's to do with averaging out the lower down moisture and temp to show what the conditions at the surface (under 850mb?) actually have in terms of their affect on instability (that lapse rate line, the curvey grey one that goes up).

For e.g, you could have a surface (very surface, NZWP readings from wunderground for e.g.) dewpoint of 18 but 100m above this have an atmosphere that drys out quickly. In terms of how it relates to instability in the atmosphere the surface dewpoint as a whole may only represent 14 degrees.

Hope that helps?

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Mon 31/01/2005 14:34

thanks Aaron

that does make sense!, although I'm still a bit mystified about the temp, as it is often way above anything recorded from the ground up..

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 31/01/2005 15:03

Cool, glad I could help. Yes I understand what you mean about the temp sometimes being so different than the actual very surface temp, maybe Tony can help? I notice it tends to happen when the atmosphere is quite warm above the surface for a bit. But how do you know where to plot the temp so you know where it should be in relation to the amount of instability, I'm not sure on that one.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 31/01/2005 18:33

Heavy shower now as I type, no thunder as yet!!!

Sparse, large heavy raindrops.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 31/01/2005 19:11

Can see cloud build ups well south of here this Evening.

Photo below was taken on a zoom lens.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Mon 31/01/2005 22:16

Thanks for the pics guys, good to see some Cu....and in its congestus form.

I'm quite excited at the possibility of our dewpoints down here in Chch getting quite high. They're allready quite good but I think they could get a bit higher still. I don't know about the chances of thunder as there doesn't look to be all that much difference in the upper air between Auckland and here but you guy's up north will have the advantage of higher surface moisture so some thunderstorms look possibly on the cards sometime mid week onwards up there? Maybe tomorrow??

I'm just going by the READY model and plotting it's temp forecast and relative humidity to get a possible forecasted dewpoint. The highest it's ever been in Chch is 18 as far as I know with it reaching 17 most years, so we'll see how this week goes.

NZstorm, how do you go about dewpoints and how high they might be in a day or two, I've noted your spot on with your predictions. And what do you think of the North Islands chance of thunder this coming week. And if possible, how high do you think Chch could get in terms of dewpoint this week?

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 31/01/2005 22:20

Cos the weather has been so boring here in chch this made my day!!

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Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 31/01/2005 23:06

I agree there Steve very boring weather here all I can see on forecasts is LOW CLOUD DRIZZLE

thats crap well the drizzle part is out of all last week of forecasting drizzle evening/morning it never happend and it didn't surprise me either my reaction was that it wouldn't happen and I was right.
No low cloud outside at the moment as I write this forecast was for low cloud and drizzle to move in by now and same for tomorrow hmmm

.
Just had to get that out.
I guees the longer the wait the MORE STORMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

Iam allowed to say that aren't I

.
Here's something a little more intersting I spotted this evening some more red sky havn't clicked my camera in over 2 weeks that's bad.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 01/02/2005 06:37

I expect a few late afternoon thunderstorms down the west of the North Island today if there is some good sea breeze activity. Most favourable area is the Waikato.

Afternoon temps should rise to 30C+ in sheltered areas of the west NI.

6.30am Auckland Fine Temp20C dp18C.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 01/02/2005 11:49

Yes NZstorm, things look interesting from now until the weekend, not sure how longer as model accuracy tends to not be very good. Even now I'm pushing it possibly.

I'm quite excited over the possible dewpoints we could get here in Chch. Could we get over 18??? I'm not sure but I think it's a possibility.

I love the outlook the central North Island's got for storms and also the inner South Island perhaps coming up. The combinations will have to pull off to work, we'll see how high things could get! Dewpoint now of 16C for Chch. The upper air is warm and if we get some storms in these conditons they will be of the high humidity variety (althought a slight relative trough will help a bit, -9/-11C over the period) which would be exciting to see! Like an Australian storm, not as powerfull (althought the North Island could have some pulse storms as they're called I believe) but would be cool to see.!

Shear doesn't look very good at all hence pulse storms above.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 01/02/2005 12:13

Overcast in Auckland now as a weak warm front pushes into our area. Pity as this will cloud skies up in the Waikato also and stymie convection.
There is higher dewpoint air in behind the front, dewpoints into the low 20's over northern NZ tomorrow.

Shear doesn't look very good at all hence pulse storms above

A good seabreeze would improve the low level shear situation.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 01/02/2005 13:08

Ahh, thats an interesting point. Main reason I speak about shear etc is because of course tornadoes and stuff, whether they will actually happen is another question.

I'm beggining to fell the humidity, like butter.....scraped over too much bread. I sense darkness in the east, what is this nameless fear?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 01/02/2005 13:42

Despite medium level overcaste here today it's still very warm, currently 26C dewpoint 17C, light to mod South Easterlies.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 01/02/2005 17:44

Warm front passed through between 3 and 4pm with weak rain. Dewpoint lifted from 17C to 21C.

Currently calm, overcast, adjacent showers, temp 23C, dp21C.

Just add that Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible the west and central North island tomorrow including Auckland/Northland. Amount of surface heating and convergence will dictate where any cb's develop and how active they will be.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 01/02/2005 18:33

Another day to be forgotten in CHC until a fresh easterly wind picked up abit, made it a lot more pleasent

High I would guess in the twenties.

Hamner again one of the hottest places in canty.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 01/02/2005 19:29

Mild (low 20s) and humid out here around Akaroa and probably similar in Chch - the kind of conditions Aucklanders would be more used to. Some drizzle around midday; none since, but it's still forecast.

Pretty high temps in some inland areas today. Plus New Plymouth's 29C max is said to nearly its highest on record - obviously they don't normally many warm days.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 01/02/2005 20:56

tich wrote:Mild and humid,,,, the kind of conditions Aucklanders would be more used to.

Now thats why I dont like it

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Tue 01/02/2005 21:11

03 Stormchaser wrote:
tich wrote:Mild and humid,,,, the kind of conditions Aucklanders would be more used to.
Now thats why I dont like it

To quote one of my workmates today "Mate, even my sweat is sweating"

I stopped off at the Red Shed tonight to get a fan to try and help me sleep tonight!

Cheers,

very hot G

NZ Weather Forum

Possible thunder

DRIZZLE LOW CLOUD DRIZZLE LOW CLOUD yeah right