Active low/trough to cross NZ

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 10/02/2005 11:47

After many days of sticky and warm northeasterlies (now slightly drier, but still warm northerlies), an active low pressure system is expected to cross NZ with some decent rain. Here in Canterbury we could do with a good dose of rain, as the hot dry weather of late has really upped the fire risk (esp inland), since the growth is unusually lush due to the earlier wet weather.

I see MetService has even suggested a low risk of heavy rain for mid and South Canterbury late tomorrow to early Friday, but it now looks like the system will move through pretty quickly, and fine weather will then return for the weekend, though most probably a bit cooler than we're getting now.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 10/02/2005 21:39

Strong gale force blustery southerly here came up just after 7pm with the first gust topping 55kmh.
Was between 50-60kmh for a time but is now around 45kmh very cool too now temp has dropped from 26C to 15C now and low overcast skies are visable.
Wind set off some pine forest fires out here since it's very dry and the winds were very strong.
Forecast is for some rain here tomorrow but iam thinking bigger .
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

I've certainly felt that change in Chch - 1st cool change for some time, even if it's only a weak front, and the main system is expected to cross over later tomorrow.

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Fri 11/02/2005 09:07

Started raining here - seems ages since I've heard it on the roof

Just a light S'ly at the moment and 14.3C.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 11/02/2005 14:21

GFS is predicting a burst of heavy rain tonight, but it should clear chiefly in time for tomorrow's cricket

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Fri 11/02/2005 16:15

tich wrote:...an active low pressure system is expected to cross NZ with some decent rain....

Windy, wet and cold (10.4Â°) here in Omarama right now.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 11/02/2005 17:35

Tommorow the sound of thunder could be heard here in Christchurch with a thunderstorm or two but as I said in an earlier post I have only a 1 for tomorrow.

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 11/02/2005 18:51

Even though it was just a few mm in Chch today (only spits in the morning), it's more than we've had for quite sometime. And a 17C max is certainly alot cooler than what we've been getting for many days.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Fri 11/02/2005 18:58

Yes the sound of rain, havent heard that in a while.
Was driving along and thought my car was making strange noises, turns out it was just rain hitting my window!!

Have had 2.5 mm here

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 11/02/2005 19:24

Raining in Auckland also. 21C.

I agree with John, the TS risk for Canterbury tomorrow looks very low.
The fundamentals, high dewpoints or cold upper air don't look to be present tomorrow. But Monday could be more interesting.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Fri 11/02/2005 20:22

23mm since around 6am this morning.

temp now 11.2, great to have some rain and cooler temps

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Fri 11/02/2005 20:34

Nice steady rain here in Waimauku. We really need rain to top up the tanks before March when traditionally it has been pretty dry...and why is it that when it is raining the water tankers seem busy?

Cheers,

G

Shepherds Valley WX · Fri 11/02/2005 22:36

Gidday Guys,

Also nice steady rain here too, just up the road from Grahams position. So far 11.9mm since 1830. Like Graham said, it will be nice to get a whole night of steady rain to replenish the roof tanks.

When I was down at a friends farm I noticed a high tide was pushing the Kaipara river up and into the drains in the lower paddocks...thought this was interesting as I was expecting the next high tide to occur around the Autumnal Equinox.... we had a monty flood here 2 years back when a 3.8m Spring tide combined with gale NW and torrential rain caused widespread flooding in low lying Parakai and Helensville....

Anyway, off to turn on the barn water pumps!

Manukau heads obs · Sat 12/02/2005 07:49

nice rain here too
20mm on the coast side, but only 13mm harbour side
and 30mm or so in Waiuku (alot of the rain bands were moving down the coast line intialy)
(that station had it first rain type produce an error (must have been dust in the rian guage mechanism)

watching the rain radar, the front got more intense over the waikato as it moved throuh around 2am or so

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sat 12/02/2005 09:54

Clearing a little now and the rain has ceased.

37mm here from 6am yesterday to 9am this morning..

thats a lot of rain for Alexandra

Temp 10.9 degrees

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 12/02/2005 10:45

Cant really see much happening today, and like others have said monday looks good!

(now how many sick days have I got)

Currently in CHCH
-partly cloudy
-18 C
-southerly
with a dew point of 13C

I also see metservice have the chance of isolated thunderstorm for sunday!

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 12/02/2005 11:11

Yeah I can't see much happenig today apart from showers yeah maybe something tomorrow or as others mention Monday funi enough no forecast suggest so but that will change before Monday.
5.0mm here yesterday now ready for some more rain

.
Cheers
JAON TIPPET.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 12/02/2005 11:17

Problem for thunder over the South Island today and tomorrow is the upper air is not quite cold enough considering surface temperatures will be cooler.

As for Monday, I'm guessing the most likely spots for convection will be along a line from Malborough to Hawkes Bay. Should be reasonable low level moisture within the low.

Last nights heavy rain over the Waikato will have been welcomed by the Diary farmers. That was a good drop. Upto 45mm in places.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 12/02/2005 11:31

Yes, the chance of the sound of thunder looks very unlikely now considering as what Stephen said.
Tommorow maybe inland there could be a rogue chance!
(i'm up at Oxord to welcome Florence the Morris Oxford from Oxford UK in my little Morris Minor called Jimmy - he wants to welcome his MA!)
Monday - no chance yet just grey nimbus and wet at the moment, clearing slowly Tuesday

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 12/02/2005 14:07

Partly cloudy, breezy day in Auckland, 24C.

Cell phone photo of fair weather cumulus over Auckland this afternoon.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 12/02/2005 16:03

Abit of cu built up north of me here in chch, went out to ranigora passed under a couple of heavy showers, ( it turned into a samll cb for a while there) then decided it wasnt going to fire up so ended up going up old west coast road to Waimak Gorge Bridge and didnt really see much.

There was however I believe a few strikes around the rakaia gorge!! so we were all proven wrong about there being no thunder today!!

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 12/02/2005 16:43

Yes that CU did look thundery for a time but then things sorta settled after that and only managed a few drops of rain out here.
There could be Thunderstorms tomorrow according to forecasts and Monday may show a sighn of rumbling as well.

Also managed a few pics not much different to steve's but still something
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 12/02/2005 16:53

NZstorm wrote:Partly cloudy, breezy day in Auckland, 24C.

Cell phone photo of fair weather cumulus over Auckland this afternoon.

Yes there were some Cu's to the north of ChCH just after noon.

The kfcu-ing weather hasn't got much resistence for anything to happen. bloody SW persistence today

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Sat 12/02/2005 17:00

not bad photo for a cell phone!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 12/02/2005 18:23

One wimpy shower was all that central Chch got this afternoon, not that I'm complaining. Monday's low looks more substantial (in terms of rain, rather than thunder potential).

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 12/02/2005 21:19

One news weather tonight put the forecast for tomorrow as afternoon thundery showers and even some thundery downpours at times in the evening hmm sounds severe to me

.
Hope all goes to plan I have everything all ready and charged up.
very cool outside unlike last few weeks overnight lows it's actually 12C at the moment..
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.

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Active low/trough to cross NZ

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