UK Weather - Winter 2013/2014

[Simon Culling]

A significant wind event will sweep NW Europe today (Thurs 5th Dec) as a rapidly deepening low moves SE from the southern Norwegian Sea across the eastern N Sea and into Scandinavia. At 0000GMT it was just to the NE of Shetland at 974mb but could be lower than 960mb as it nears the Baltic Sea if model predictions are correct. Winds of approaching 100mph have already been recorded in western Scotland, but the biggest fear is a storm surge down the N Sea affecting the east coast of the UK and places such as Holland, N Germany, Denmark and into the Baltic. We are also near the spring tides, so coastal flooding and erosion is very likely. This has the potential to be a significant event.

This event has attracted very little media attention so far, possibly because the deepening has been somewhat underestimated by the met men. Normally the tabloid press would have gone into overdrive days in advance, but they seem to have missed this one. Surprisingly or not, depending on your viewpoint, it has been well discussed for days on the weather forums.

[Orion]

I understand there have been two killed in the UK already; bad flooding, and the worst tidal surge in the North Sea since 1953.
Keeping an eye on this event with BBC news and various other sites e.g. http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/#axzz2mdIOJXAf

[Simon Culling]

This was indeed a significant event, but reporting has been rather scant due to an international news event that has dominated the airwaves for the last 24 hours. The surge appears to have been of a similar magnitude to the 1953 event, but the zero death and/or serious injury (from flooding) is testament to better flood defences and evacuation procedures.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25253080

The high winds and coastal flooding also affected many other parts of NW Europe with much disruption to the transport networks.

The attached synoptic map (copyright of the Met Office) shows the situation at 1200GMT on Thursday 5th December 2013. The depression was still deepening.

[Simon Culling]

The highest wind speeds for this storm over the UK were recorded in Scotland and down the eastern side of England. The highest gusts reported were (for lowland stations):

93mph at Altnaharra (far north of Scottish mainland)
92mph at Loch Glascarnoch (Highlands)
89mph at Drumalbin (southern uplands at 245m amsl) + South Uist Range
85mph Stornoway (Isle of Lewis, Hebrides)
83mph at Kinloss (on Moray Firth coast), Lusa (Isle of Skye) + Eskdalemuir (southern uplands at 242m amsl)

Some of these stations reported hourly means of 50mph+. Eastern England was also very windy for a while with gusts of 88mph at the Borders Gliding Club (Northumberland), 75mph at RAF Church Fenton (N Yorks) and 72mph at RAF Wattisham (Suffolk).

Some impressive windspeeds were recorded at higher level sites, with gusts of 109mph on Scalpay Bridge (Outer Hebrides) and 102mph from the south tower of the Tay Bridge. The mountain site at Aonach Mor (in the Ben Nevis range at 1130m amsl) recorded a mean of 97mph with gusts to 141mph at 0600GMT.

[Simon Culling]

The Ekofisk Oil Platform (operated by Norway) is slap bang in the middle of the North Sea and its METARS for that day (from 6am to 6pm) make interesting reading. The instruments are probably on the tower (so a few hundred feet above the sea) but it would not have been fun being outside that day. It carried on gusting to 60kts and above until 6am the following morning, so they were effectively isolated for at least a day.

ENEK 051750Z 32054G67KT 9999 SCT010 SCT020CB 01/M01 Q0997 W08/S8
ENEK 051720Z 32053G66KT 9999 VCSH SCT010 SCT020CB 02/M03 Q0997 W08/S8
ENEK 051650Z 31060G74KT 4000 VCSH BR SCT010 SCT020CB 02/M03 Q0995 W08/S8
ENEK 051620Z 31060G75KT 4000 VCSH BR SCT010 BKN020CB 02/M03 Q0994 W08/S8
ENEK 051550Z 32054G70KT 6000 VCSH SCT010 SCT020CB 02/M05 Q0994 W08/S8
ENEK 051520Z 31062G73KT 3000 VCSH BR SCT007 BKN015CB 01/M03 Q0993 W08/S8
ENEK 051450Z 32061G74KT 5000 VCSH BR SCT007 BKN015CB 03/M02 Q0992 W08/S8
ENEK 051420Z 32060G71KT 4000 VCSH BR SCT007 BKN015CB 04/M01 Q0991 W08/S8
ENEK 051320Z 32064G80KT 3000 -SHRAGS BR SCT007 BKN015CB 04/01 Q0988 W08/S8
ENEK 051250Z 31064G82KT 3000 -SHRAGS BR SCT007 BKN015CB 05/01 Q0985 W08/S8
ENEK 051220Z 30063G74KT 3000 -SHRA BR SCT007 BKN015CB 05/02 Q0984 W08/S8
ENEK 051150Z 29071G85KT 2000 -SHRAGS BR SCT007 BKN015CB 05/04 Q0982 W08/S8
ENEK 051120Z 27063G76KT 3500 VCSH BR SCT006 BKN010CB 07/03 Q0982 W08/S7
ENEK 051050Z 26051G61KT 9000 VCSH SCT010 BKN020CB 06/04 Q0983 W08/S7
ENEK 051020Z 26040KT 7000 SCT015 BKN010CB 04/04 Q0984 W08/S6
ENEK 050950Z 24060G74KT 0500 TS SHRAGS FG SCT005 BKN010CB 07/06 Q0984 W08/S6
ENEK 050920Z 23057G70KT 3000 BR SHRA SCT005 BKN015CB 08/06 Q0985 W08/S6
ENEK 050850Z 23057G73KT 3500 BR SHRA SCT005 BKN010CB 07/06 Q0987 W08/S6
ENEK 050820Z 23055G67KT 3500 BR -SHRA SCT005 BKN010CB 07/06 Q0990 W08/S6
ENEK 050750Z 23055KT 3500 BR -SHRA SCT005 BKN010CB 07/06 Q0992 W08/S6
ENEK 050720Z 23053G63KT 3500 BR SHRA SCT005 BKN010CB BKN020 07/05 Q0994 W08/S6
ENEK 050650Z 23053KT 9999 SCT015 SCT020TCU BKN025 08/05 Q0996 W08/S6
ENEK 050620Z 23047G57KT 9999 FEW015 SCT020TCU BKN030 08/05 Q0998 W08/S6
ENEK 050550Z 23044G54KT 9999 FEW015 SCT020TCU BKN030 07/05 Q1000 W08/S6

The 11:50 observation looks pretty horrendous - mean windspeed of 82mph gusting to 98mph with a hail shower and only 5*C. I would imagine the sea was in a rather choppy state.

[Orion]

I seem to remember in the table of descriptions of sea-conditions, the worst grades being "precipitous" and, top of the list, "confused" which conjures up an apt vision...

[Simon Culling]

Hello Orion. Sea state is something I have had to look up as I have lived inland for the last 30 years! The expression confused refers to the swell, but phenomenal is used to describe the worst case for sea state. The North Sea is quite narrow and shallow and gets shallower as you head southwards, so the wind blowing across it would meet the pressure surge at right angles, so I expect it was rather 'angry'. If the wind had been more NW rather than W, the storm surge would have been even greater. The Wikipedia link is ok:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_state

December has been fairly quiet here in the south of the UK apart from the brief interruption from that passing storm, with the CET standing at 6.8*C (+1.8*C) up to the 10th, making it warmer than November. The EWR is only 5mm up to the 10th also, compared to the average of 96mm. The high pressure that had been stuck out to our west at the beginning of the month has moved into Europe and we are getting a mild S-SW flow over the UK, although the south and east are cooler with mist and fog. The jet stream is set to strengthen this weekend and move south, so we will see our weather livening up a bit in the near future.

[Simon Culling]

CET for December was 7.1*C (+2.2*C) up to the 16th and the EWR was 23mm up to the 15th. This shows how mild it has been and most of the rain has fallen in the last couple of days as the weather turns more unsettled. The forecast charts for the next 10 days show a succession of deep lows sweeping across the Atlantic with some as low as 930/940mb with a lot of wet and windy weather for the UK. All four of the global models show particularly disturbed weather for the festive period.

[Simon Culling]

CET for December is 6.9*C (+2.0*C) up to the 21st and the EWR has increased to 55mm up to the 20th reflecting the mild and wet weather we have been experiencing recently. The CET may fall a little, but the rainfall is likely to exceed the average of 96mm by the end of the month.

The latest Met Office forecast charts have a very deep low between 930-940mb passing just to the north of Scotland overnight 23rd/24th which will give very strong winds in the NW...current models suggest gusts to 80-90mph in this area. Much of England is expected to get 20-40mm of rain on Monday so Christmas travel is going to be fun. At 0600GMT this morning this system was just a wave of 1008mb not far out from Newfoundland.

The forecast charts suggest and equally deep low for Friday (27th) and on a trajectory a little further south which will potentially bring storm force winds to the south. The jet is claimed to have been measured at 275mph across the Atlantic this morning which is very strong indeed. A very stormy period is in prospect for the holiday season.

[Simon Culling]

At 1800GMT (on Monday 23rd) the low is at 942mb (it has deepened 66mb in the last 36 hours) and approximately 3-400nm W of NW Scotland. it is forecast to be at 926mb at 1200GMT on Tuesday 24th as it brushes past the north of Scotland.

It has been a wild and wet day over most of the country with copious amounts of rain and gales in most places. The highest wind gusts have been on the south coast with 90mph at The Needles (Isle of Wight), 88mph at Polruan (Cornwall) and 85mph at Hurst Castle (Hants). Upwards of 100mm of rain has been recorded over Dartmoor and many places are showing 20-30mm with a lot more to come this evening. The worst of the winds will push along the south coast this evening with gusts of 70-80mph even inland.

Despite the low pressure off NW Scotland the worst of the pressure gradient on the SW flank of the storm will stay over the sea, although it will be stormy in the Scottish Isles tomorrow morning.

[Simon Culling]

At 0600GMT this morning (Tues 24th) the low was at 929mb and centred about 150nm due west of Stornoway. The winds are beginning to pick up now on the west coast of Scotland and Ireland.

It was a wild and wet night in the SE of England with much disruption to the transport networks. Highest gusts I can find from inland sites were:

71mph at RAF Odiham (Hampshire), Kenley (Surrey) + RAF Yeovilton (Somerset)
63mph at Little Rissington (Gloucestershire)
61mph at Boscombe Down (Wiltshire) + RAF Benson (Oxon)
59mph at London Heathrow

On the coast it was a lot windier with a gust of 103mph recorded at Hurst Castle and 93mph at the Needles Lighthouse. Both these sites are very exposed.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25502730

[Simon Culling]

The lowest pressure recorded on land was 936.8mb at 1300GMT on the 24th (Tuesday) at Stornoway, which is located at he NW tip of the Isle of Lewis in the Outer Hebrides. This is apparently the lowest air pressure recorded in the UK (on land) for 127 years.......since the 925.6mb recorded at 2145GMT on 26th January 1884 at Ochtertyre, which is near Crieff (Perthshire). Stornoway also recorded 937.6mb on the 20th December 1982.

It has remained wet and stormy through the Christmas holiday with some areas (particularly Kent) not having any electricity for up to 4 days as engineers have struggled with further gales and flooding as they try to reconnect supplies. The local residents even gave the Prime Minister a hard time over this issue . As usual, some good photos in the daily Mail link:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... power.html

EDIT: CET for December up to the 28th is 6.5*C (+1.8*C) and the EWR up to the 27th is 112mm (117% of monthly average) reflecting the mild and wet weather of the last two weeks.

[Manukau heads obs]

thats an impressive low barometer reading alright!

[Simon Culling]

Another deep depression skirted Northern Ireland and moved NE over the western side of Scotland on Friday 27th December at a central pressure between 945 to 948mb. This gave some very strong winds across Ireland, N Wales, N England and S Scotland. Highest gusts were:

102mph at Aberdaron, NW Wales, on the Llyn peninsula (mean was 71mph)
87mph at Capel Curig (N Wales)
85mph at Mumbles Coastguard (S Wales) + St Bees Head (Cumbria)
83mph at Sherkin Island + Mace Head (both Eire)
81mph at Inverbervie (E Soptland), Valley (Anglesey) + Ronaldsway (Isle of Man).

Quite a lot of damage and transport disruption followed. The site at Aberdaron is considered very exposed, but that is still windy!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25524378

[Simon Culling]

Yet another low skirted N Ireland and the west coast of Scotland today with a central pressure around 948mb and its strong winds combined with very high tides has brought a lot of coastal flooding to the west and southern coasts of the UK from Cornwall to SW Scotland. This has been a very stormy and wet spell and looks set to continue through next week, but thankfully with a little less vigour. There is some suggestion of a sudden stratospheric warming event beginning in the northern hemisphere and the models are hinting at a build of pressure over Scandinavia from next weekend. A break from the wet weather would be nice.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25584221

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25593105

[Simon Culling]

Some very good photographs of the recent flooding from the Daily Mail newspaper in the attached link:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... itain.html

CET for January up to the 4th is 6.9*C (+3.5*C) and the EWR was 29mm up to the 3rd (monthly average 91mm). This reflects the warm and wet start to the new year. Currently January is warmer than last November!

[Manukau heads obs]

amazing photos
the north atlantic has been warmer than normal for a while...thats alot of stored up energy to be spent

[Orion]

Remarkable photos: amazing how long some places have been flooded; what a mess. Dreadful that lives have been lost.

[Simon Culling]

The disturbed weather has continued, although with less vigour. The amount of rainfall continues to be the big issue with river levels still rising in parts of southern England......particularly the River Thames.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-25679822

The CET up to the 10th was 7.0*C (+3.4*C) and the EWR up to the 9th was 66mm (73% of the monthly average). It is likely to be a little cooler in the coming week but more rain is expected.

There has been much talk about the reasons for this disturbed spell of weather with much of the blame being put on conditions upstream of the UK. The very marked temperature contrast across America is contributing to the strength of the jet stream, but with a strong polar vortex remaining in place and a positive NAO, the run of depressions across the Atlantic is set to continue. There is no sign of anything colder and drier out to 10 days in the forecast models.

[Simon Culling]

Further to my comments above about the jet stream, here is a very good introduction to this subject:

https://skepticalscience.com/jetstream- ... ml#climate

[Simon Culling]

CET for January up to the 19th is still high at 6.2*C (+2.7*C) and the EWR up to the 18th is also high at 111mm, which is already 122% of the monthly average.

It has been dry and sunny for the last couple of days with a nip of frost overnight, but more rain is forecast for late Tuesday onwards as a number of fronts stall over the country as they come up against a Scandinavian high pressure block. The models are undecided as to how far west any cold air will get from the continent, but there is a suggestion of a cold sleety day on Friday with hill snow. To me, it looks like the high will sink SE into Europe, but some very cold air has developed rather quickly to our north and east, so it could be an interesting few days.

EDIT 12:00NZ, the latest model run ends all hopes of the cold air reaching the UK! That didn't take long!

[Simon Culling]

CET for January up to the 24th was 5.8*C (+2,2*C) and is gradually falling. EWR up to the 23rd was 127mm and still rising.

An interesting trough moved SE across England today (Sat 25th Jan) with a squall line developing along it with plenty of thunder and hail and there have been about 7 or 8 reports of small tornadoes, although the squall gusts were of the order of 50-60mph, so straight line winds are more likely in most case. There are a couple (Nuneaton in Warwickshire and St Albans in Hertfordshire) that have damage that definitely looks tornadic.

The squall passed through Milton Keynes with gusts to 50mph and heavy rain and hail and some very loud gunshot thunder. The lightning was clearly visible as it was quite dark (15:45pm) because of the dense cloud and setting sun and there were a couple of what we call 'crawlers' where the lightning snakes across the sky rather than going to ground. Winter thunderstorms inland are somewhat unusual in these parts, but this one made up for this!

[Simon Culling]

The wet weather has continued unabated with barely a dry day to be had. The CET up to the 29th was 5.8*C (+2.0*C) and the EWR up to the 28th was 162mm, 178% of the monthly average. The Met Office has provided some preliminary figures for this month that shows this January to be just about the wettest since 'proper' records began in 1910.....certainly for us in the south. As the maps show in the link, the normal rainfall pattern has been reversed this month.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... uary-Stats

It was colder today, but still damp and drizzly with a max of just 4*C and even a little sleet this morning. That is the first wintry precipitation since November!

[Simon Culling]

The final CET for January was 5.7*C (+1.9*C) and the EWR 183mm, a whopping 201% of the average. The BBC link makes an attempt at explaining why it has been so wet, but the reality is, is that it is just part of the natural variability of the climate. The graph of rainfall since 1910 does not show a trend in either direction and illustrates the huge variation in rainfall totals for January over the last century.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25962332

There has been much debate about the flooding in the Somerset Levels and a link to the failure to dredge rivers in recent years, so I will try to find a link that explains this a little better than I can.

The forecast for the week ahead is for more rain + wind!

[stepr]

The weather this Winter has been absolutely surreal.. virtually no frosts this Winter, severe wind, heavy rain, coastal flooding.. it's going to be a memorable Winter for sure.

This Saturday things are looking serious though, some intense winds, and very high waves look like battering the southwest of the country once again.. maybe worse than previous times, this problem this time is it will be more long lasting. Right now some coastal communities on the edge.. Saturdays storm could push them over the edge (pun not intended)