Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 17/01/2014 20:14

I've split the two TC's that were previously in this thread into their own threads for ease of reference, but will keep this thread open for any future potential candidates (or general comments about the season).

Sorry, should have done this earlier, as once they're named they should really warrant their own threads.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 18/01/2014 07:07

Thanks Nev. this keeps it much tidier.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 23/01/2014 08:22

Two or three of areas of interest in the tropics atm, particularly the TD east of Fiji, which JTWC have upgraded its chances to medium earlier this morn…

ABPW10 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221500Z-230600ZJAN2014//
RMKS/
…

2.B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2S
165.5W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 167.7W, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 220912Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF SHEARED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A 220913Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH SOME 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED FROM
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC ALL WHILE MODERATE (15-
25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, IS STARTING TO SHOW THE LOW
IS BEGINNING TO FILL WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS ALLOWING
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Thu 23/01/2014 10:53

That one is diving too far south at its current stage of development to become anything significant. Unless it does a 180, its dead.

The area of convection off the north Queensland coast looks good - deep convection, and starting to twist up.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 23/01/2014 11:22

Yes, agree. Was just looking at the very short-term. The one north of Vanuatu also looks promising.

bjb · Unread post by **bjb** » Thu 23/01/2014 11:52

Very active up here at present.
Fiji Met has just put out alerts for two more TD's.

Plus I can tell you it's hot & sticky, day and night.
Between 31C day with 70% humidity and 27C nights at 90%.

Barry

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 22/0959 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE [1007HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.7S
167.0W AT 220900UTC. TD09F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON GOES IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANSIATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT PAST 12
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WESTWARD
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S
171.7E AT 220900UTC. TD10F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IS POOR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED PAST 12 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 850HPA.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WESTWARD
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 23/01/2014 12:22

Hi Barry, I think you'll find those summaries were put out before midnight last night and the first one is for the one east of Fiji (see the later JTWC summary above). Still waiting for an updates from RSMC Nadi and TCWC Brisbane for the 2 Coral Sea TD's.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 23/01/2014 12:24

those coral sea disturbance ones are moving fast west
but TC Yasi tarted off like that, ie a wave, and formed quickly and hit queensland bad

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 23/01/2014 12:26

Spoke too soon. Update from RSMC Nadi...

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 22/2319 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE [1006HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.5S
169.7W AT 222100UTC. TD09F MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO EAST OF
SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW IN A MODERATE TO
HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.9S
167.7E AT 222100UTC. TD10F MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IS POOR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT
PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WESTWARD
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 23/01/2014 19:23

The systems in the Coral sea look to have pretty much fallen apart this arvo and the BoM rates any chance of a TC forming in its AOR during the next few days as very low to low.

Our TD east of Fiji, however, which currently appears to be a 'hybrid system', is still holding its own and JTWC still rates its potential to become a TC within the next 24 hrs as medium…

ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZJAN2014//
RMKS/
...
2.B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5S
167.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 170.4W, APPROXIMATELY 456 NM SOUTH
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, ALBEIT PARTIALLY EXPOSED, LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 230219Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHEAST. A 222309Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS POSITIONED VERY CLOSE TO THE LLCC WHILE HIGH (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM. CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE A BORDERLINE SYMMETRIC WARM/COLD CORE SYSTEM
WHILE AMSU RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE ONLY VERY WEAK
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A HYBRID SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT IN TIME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

Manukau heads obs · Thu 23/01/2014 19:45

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS POSITIONED VERY CLOSE TO THE LLCC

yes, you can see the broad upper level circulation

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 24/01/2014 18:18

Not much happening with these 2 TD's atm, but just a quick follow-up for anyone wondering:

The TD SE of Fiji has had pretty much all its convection sheared to the north this morn, and Nadi rates its chances of forming a TC the next 2 days as very low.

Nadi also rates the TD west of Vanuatu as low, although it does have a little more potential in the next few days, by which time it will be well into TCWC Brisbane's AOR…

ABPW10 PGTW 240100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS CORRECTED/240100Z-240600ZJAN2014//
RMKS/
...

2.B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8S
170.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 175.5W, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST. A 232048Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT
CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST, WITH DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED
VERY CLOSE TO THE LLCC WHILE HIGH (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE DISTURBANCE. ADDITIONALLY, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRANSITORY TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM
THE EAST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.7S, 163.4E
APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
232222Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH LIMITED
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

ben g · Unread post by **ben g** » Sat 25/01/2014 07:45

You guys probably already follow this, but if not here is weather zone thread on TD10F in the coral sea.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthre ... _low_TD10F_

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 25/01/2014 08:56

Oh, ok… saves having to bother with this forum's thread then...

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sat 25/01/2014 10:10

Nev wrote:Oh, ok… saves having to bother with this forum's thread then...

No..... Carry on Nev your doing great....
But only carry on if you want to

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 25/01/2014 10:55

Thanks, just joking though, lol...

Would be nice to see a few more contributions/comments from other users though; perhaps a brief summary of what the Weatherzone buffs think, rather than just a link…

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 29/01/2014 08:40

GFS showing the tropics are roaring into life!

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Wed 29/01/2014 08:56

Thought it was about time to split the developing TD approaching Qld into its own thread.

Another area for the potential developemant of a TC lies just south of the Solomon Islands (160E 14S)…

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