Tropical Cyclone Dylan - Coral Sea / Queensland

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Tropical Cyclone Dylan - Coral Sea / Queensland

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This evening's remarks from JTWC on our TD in the Coral Sea...
ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZJAN2014//
RMKS/

2.B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S
163.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 242303Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
VERY BROAD AND HIGHLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WEAK WINDS (05 TO
10 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THIS AREA IN
THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
And today's 3-day TC Outlook from the BoM, Brisbane…
DQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:35 pm EST on Saturday 25 January 2014
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 28 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough extends from Papua New Guinea to the Solomon Islands, with
an area of low pressure located south of the Solomon Islands. The monsoon is
expected to strengthen early next week. It is likely that with the
intensification of the monsoon trough, a tropical system will develop, however
the uncertainty with its position and movement is high.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday Very Low
Monday Moderate
Tuesday Moderate
ben g
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

Unread post by ben g »

Lol The weather zone guys are thinking - cat 3 crossing the coast just north of brisbane, 400+ mm of rain... Dream on Aussies.. Sorry sometimes there are just not enough nz weather fanatics talking to fill my weather fix, thought it might interest you what the other side of the ditch is talking about as it relates. Either way the tropics are definitely looking more exciting over the next few weeks.
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

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Yes, a lot of disagreement between models as to its strength and path, so anything beyond 3 days still looks to be pretty much anybody's guess. Pretty good consolidation today though, with convection starting to wrap around the LLCC.

BoM's 3-day Cyclone Outlook is basically a repeat of yesterday's, with the addition of a TC forming on Wednesday rated as high…

This evenings remarks from JTWC…
ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZJAN2014//
RMKS/

2.B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
160.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 157.0E, APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252325Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A VERY BROAD AND HIGHLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WEAK WINDS
(05 TO 10 KNOTS) NEAR THE LLCC AND SOME STRONGER (15 TO 20 KNOT)
WINDS IN THE OUTER PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS PERSISTED. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
...
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

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Today's updates:
ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJAN2014//
RMKS/

2.B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6S
157.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 154.5E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERIES OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
270324Z COLOR COMPOSITE AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS
STARTING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE DESPITE THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVERALL
BROAD AND ELONGATED WHILE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE LLCC
LIES UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS WHILE LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS PERSISTED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 48 TO
72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:53 pm EST on Monday 27 January 2014
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 30 January 2014.

Potential Cyclones:

A monsoon low lies over the northern reaches of the Coral Sea, and is expected
to strengthen as it moves towards the Queensland coast during this week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday Moderate
Wednesday High
Thursday High
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

getting organised now finally in the coral sea
persistant convection that is rotating around a center
and drifting towards queensland
Image
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

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Yes, most models now in agreement with a North Queensland crossing in the next few days, although not so much with its timing and strength.

ECMWF currently have it crossing near Cairns around midday Thursday, as does GFS on Thursday late afternoon, UKMO a little further south around Innisfail on Thu/Fri night and BoM's ACCESS further north around Cooktown on Wed/Thu night.

Take a look at this latest wind map from nullschool (GFS based) though - looks to a have split into 2 LLCC's...
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

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Below is a track-map of the TD's progress to 1pm today NZDT based on figures from NOAA,
(times shown are in UTC).
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

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TC Formation Alert from JTWC…
WTPS21 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 154.0E TO 18.0S 149.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 153.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
154.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SLOWLY WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS
ALSO EVIDENT IN A 282340Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 282340Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER (20 TO 25 KNOT)
WINDS IN THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM (GREATER
THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IN THE CORAL SEA ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR QUICK
DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE CURRENT ELONGATION, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

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Severe Weather Warning put out by the BoM about an hour ago…
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES

For people in the
Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands,
Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of the
Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts.


Issued at 10:34 am Tuesday, 28 January 2014.

Synoptic Situation: At 9am, a tropical low was situated in the northern Coral Sea, approximately 870 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns, and moving southwest at around 10 kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected to move in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland east coast. The potential for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone will be assessed during today and Tropical Cyclone Advices will be issued if required.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, and damaging winds, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Port Douglas and the area north of Mackay during Wednesday afternoon. 24 hour rainfall totals in excess of 200mm are possible.

Water levels on the high tide are also likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about coastal areas between Port Douglas and the areas north of Mackay over the next couple of days.

Locations which may be affected include Hamilton Island, Proserpine, Bowen, Townsville, Cairns, Port Douglas and Mareeba.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 4:35 pm.
...
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

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Guess the BoM now seem to think a TC more likely on Thursday, before making landfall the same day…
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 28 January 2014
for the period until midnight EST Friday 31 January 2014.

Potential Cyclones:

At 9am, a tropical low was situated in the northern Coral Sea, approximately
870 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns, and moving southwest at around 10
kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected to move in a general
westwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it
approaches the Queensland east coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday Moderate
Thursday High
Friday Low
...
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

Unread post by ben g »

Image
yesterday's 00z run of models. Ignore the light blue track (JMA) - its data was corrupted. ACCESS-G also didn't ingest properly.

Bom is not that sure about about the strength tho
https://imageshack.com/i/mjijd1p
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

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Thanks Ben. Models have changed slightly since Ken Kato (BoM meteorologist) put that map together though. Very early days though. ;-)

BoM have begun putting out advisories…
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:54 pm EST on Tuesday 28 January 2014

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Port Douglas to Proserpine.

At 1:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 760 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 790 kilometres northeast of Townsville and moving west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday.

The tropical low, is expected to move in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland east coast. GALES may develop between Port Douglas and Proserpine during Wednesday afternoon and could persist into Thursday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin and northern parts of the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during Wednesday afternoon and should continue into Thursday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Port Douglas and Proserpine, mainly on the high tide on Wednesday and Thursday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

People between Port Douglas and Proserpine should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 152.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Tuesday 28 January.
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Re: Southwest Pacific Cyclone Season - 2013/14

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Partial amendment to the first advisory…
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 5:44 pm EST on Tuesday 28 January 2014

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Port Douglas to Proserpine.

At 4:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 710 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 750 kilometres northeast of Townsville and moving west southwest at 8 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday.

The tropical low, is expected to move in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland east coast. GALES are occurring at times along parts of the east coast between Cairns and Hamilton Island and may develop further between Port Douglas and Proserpine during Wednesday afternoon.



Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.9 degrees South 152.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Tuesday 28 January.
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

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Convection hasn't increased overnight, though is still disorganised and quite 'pulsey' according the the BoM. This morn's update…
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 4:24 am EST on Wednesday 29 January 2014

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal and island
communities from Port Douglas to Proserpine.

At 4:00 am EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 590 kilometres east northeast
of Cairns and 630 kilometres northeast of Townsville and moving west southwest
at 11 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The tropical low is expected to move in a general west southwestwards direction
over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the
Queensland east coast.

A strong ridge of high pressure extends through the Coral Sea to the south of
the monsoon low. The two systems are currently combining to generate GALES at
times along much of the east coast between Port Douglas and Proserpine. Winds
are expected to increase further with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120km/hr
developing from late this afternoon and continuing into early Friday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands,
Herbert and Lower Burdekin and northern parts of the Central Coast and
Whitsundays districts from late this afternoon and should continue into Friday.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Port
Douglas and Proserpine, mainly on the high tide today, Thursday and Friday.
Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in
areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect
their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.


People between Port Douglas and Proserpine should consider what action they
will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.3 degrees South 151.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 150 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Wednesday 29 January.
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

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Doesn't seem to be developing quite as well as expected this morn…
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0036 UTC 29/01/2014
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 151.0E
Location Accuracy: within 80 nm [150 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [200 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa


REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis of the system was not possible on the recent satellite image as
most of the convection is developing away from the centre of the system. The
system appears to still be quite disorganised.

Vertical wind shear appears to be moderate in strength around the system due to
an upper level trough situated across the central Coral Sea. However, the wind
shear should decrease a little as the system approaches the Queensland east
coast. Most of the computer model guidance is consistent in intensifying the
system and developing a vertically stacked system closer to the Queensland east
coast.

A mid-level ridge extends across southern Australia and should lead to the
system developing a southwest track over the next couple of days.

Persistent strong to gale force southeasterly trade winds are causing a positive
anomaly of around 0.5 metres on top of the predicted tides along parts of the
Queensland east coast between around Cooktown to St Lawrence this morning. This
positive anomaly will lead to tides exceeding the Highest Astronomical Tide of
the year along these parts of the coast over the next couple of days,
particularly on the high tide.
...
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

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Interesting that JTWC have changed their ref name to TC 11P…
WTPS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 151.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO DOMINANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. A 281946Z CORIOLIS IMAGE REVEALS THE WELL
DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AS WELL AS AN ELONGATED AND
SOMEWHAT LOOSELY DEFINED LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE
STRONG GRADIENT FLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HAVE
SLOWLY BEGUN TO FULLY WRAP AROUND THE LLCC BRINGING 30-35 KNOT WINDS
NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER REPLACING THE PREVIOUSLY WEAKER CORE WINDS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR ANIMATION FROM
WILLIS ISLAND WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 281354Z OSCAT
PASS AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY WILLIS ISLAND. TC 11P IS
TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIAN
COAST BY TAU 48 AND DISSIPATING WELL INLAND BY TAU 72. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN CONTENT WILL AID THE SYSTEM IN REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT
SPLIT, BUT GENERALLY INDICATING A SOUTHWEST TRACK. DUE TO THE
LOOSELY DEFINED LLCC AND SPREAD IN OBJECTIVE AIDS THE JTWC FORECAST
IS LAID CLOSE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z AND 300300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 280251Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280300).//
NNNN
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

Unread post by ben g »

Looking very sad on the radar
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR411.loop.shtml#skip

It sounds like the biggest problem will be the storm crossing coinciding with one of the highest tides of the year. No where near as bad as it could have been with a stronger storm though. Should still be interesting.


"Townsville Local Disaster Management Group had issued a Media Alert for the storm surge. Looking at approx 1.5 m above the king tide for Thursday and Friday mornings. If the link doesn't work, it is on the front page of the Townsville City Council's website.

http://public.townsville.qld.gov.au/cou ... vation.pdf"
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

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Latest Advisory from the BoM……
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
...

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 4:27 pm EST on Wednesday 29 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cairns to Mackay

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Mackay to St Lawrence, extending inland through the eastern interior north of Clermont.

At 4:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 515 kilometres east of Cairns and 505 kilometres northeast of Townsville and moving south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The tropical low is expected to move in a general southwestwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland east coast.

A strong ridge of high pressure extends through the Coral Sea to the south of the tropical low. The two systems are currently combining to generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cairns and Mackay. Winds are expected to increase further with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120km/hr developing about the coast, and may possibly extend inland during Thursday and Friday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts tonight and should continue into Thursday.

Coastal residents between Innisfail and Hamilton Island are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the developing tropical low approaches the coast, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

As the developing tropical low approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Cairns and Innisfail and also between Hamilton Island and St Lawrence, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island communities from Cooktown to Cairns and from St Lawrence to Gladstone.
...

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.5 degrees South 150.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals
...
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

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And from their tech bulletin...
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0645 UTC 29/01/2014
...

REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.2 degree wrap on a log10
spiral, giving a DT of 1.0. MT and PT give 1.0. FT based on MT as DT is not
clear. Convection has developed near the centre of the system over the last
couple of hours, though most of the convection remains well removed from the
centre.

Vertical wind shear appears to be moderate in strength around the system due to
an upper level trough situated across the central Coral Sea. However, the wind
shear should decrease a little as the system approaches the Queensland east
coast. Most of the computer model guidance is consistent in intensifying the
system and developing a vertically stacked system closer to the Queensland east
coast.

A mid-level ridge extends across southern Australia and should allow the system
to maintain a southwest track over the next couple of days.

Persistent strong to gale force southeasterly trade winds are causing a positive
anomaly of around 0.5 metres on top of the predicted tides along parts of the
Queensland east coast between around Cooktown to St Lawrence this morning. This
positive anomaly will lead to tides exceeding the Highest Astronomical Tide of
the year along these parts of the coast over the next couple of days,
particularly on the high tide.
Manukau heads obs
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looking alot stronger overnight
Image
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

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This morn's update from JTWC…
WTPS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 150.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT


REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 149.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
291150Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR INDICATES A MORE
DEFINED LLCC, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS FRAGMENTED AND
LOOSELY ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND SHOW 10
TO 15 KNOT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 994 MB.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER CORE WINDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
SCATTEROMETER DATA. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 25 KNOTS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE RADAR ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 11P
IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 48.
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN CONTENT WILL AID THE SYSTEM
IN REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, GENERALLY INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AND SPREAD IN OBJECTIVE
AIDS THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

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And from the BoM…
IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 5:07 am EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence.
The Cyclone WARNING between Cairns and Cardwell has been CANCELLED.

The Cyclone WATCH for communities through the eastern interior including
Charters Towers and Moranbah has been CANCELLED.

At 4:00 am EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 365 kilometres northeast of
Townsville and 375 kilometres north northeast of Proserpine and moving west
southwest at 12 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The tropical low is expected to move in a general southwest direction and
develop before crossing the Queensland coast between Lucinda and Proserpine on
Friday morning.

The low and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to
generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St
Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St
Lawrence, and particularly about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district,
during today with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands,
Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts
during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and Mackay, including Townsville are
specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide
today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well
above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas
close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this
flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and
be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised
to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda and also between Mackay
and St Lawrence, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. Large
waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone.

People between Cardwell and Mackay should take precautions and listen to the
next advice at 8am.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.1 degrees South 149.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am EST Thursday 30 January.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1909 UTC 29/01/2014
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 149.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa


REMARKS:
The system has had monsoonal characteristics with convection and strongest winds
well removed from the centre. Surface observations and scatterometry show gales
in the NW monsoonal flow to the north and in the SE flow to the south.
Convection has developed on the southwest flank near the centre during the past
three hours although curvature remains weak at -0.25 wrap resulting in Dvorak
analysis of just 1.5.

Vertical wind shear is low with strong outflow to the south associated with a
jet from an upper level trough situated across the central Coral Sea. With
gales evident in different sectors, forecasting cyclone intensity is somewhat
problematic as models generally persist with a broad system through to landfall.
Being such a broad system means that rapid intensification is not likely even
though models are generally consistent in developing a more symmetric and
vertically stacked system prior to landfall.

Enhanced low to mid-level northerly flow to the east of the system associated
with the monsoon and a ridge building in the southern Coral sea should allow the
system to maintain a general southwest track over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Persistent strong to gale force southeasterly trade winds are causing a positive
anomaly of around 0.5 metres on top of the predicted tides along parts of the
Queensland east coast between around Cooktown to St Lawrence. This positive
anomaly along with the potential increase as the system approaches land will
lead to tides exceeding the Highest Astronomical Tide of the year along these
parts of the coast on Thursday and Friday particularly on the high tide.
...
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

Unread post by Nev »

A couple more good longer-term radar loops here and here.

The first has a handy slider on the right that you scroll the loop back and forth.
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 30/01/2014
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 148.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [245 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
...

REMARKS:
The system is continuing to transition into a more classical tropical cyclone
structure, with convecting banding continuing to develop on the western and
southern flanks. Surface observations and scatterometry show gales in the NW
monsoonal flow to the north and in the SE flow to the south. Convection has
developed on the southwest flank near the centre during the past three hours
with curvature increasing at -0.55 wrap resulting in Dvorak analysis of 2.5.

Vertical wind shear is low with strong outflow to the south associated with a
jet from an upper level trough situated across the central Coral Sea. With
gales evident in different sectors, forecasting cyclone intensity is somewhat
problematic as models generally persist with a broad system through to landfall.
Being such a broad system means that rapid intensification is not likely even
though models are generally consistent in developing a more symmetric and
vertically stacked system prior to landfall.

Enhanced low to mid-level northerly flow to the east of the system associated
with the monsoon and a ridge building in the southern Coral sea should allow the
system to maintain a general southwest track over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Persistent strong to gale force southeasterly trade winds are causing a positive
anomaly of around 0.5 metres on top of the predicted tides along parts of the
Queensland east coast between around Cooktown to St Lawrence. This positive
anomaly along with the potential increase as the system approaches land will
lead to tides exceeding the Highest Astronomical Tide of the year along these
parts of the coast on Thursday and Friday particularly on the high tide.
...
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Re: Tropical Low 99P - Coral Sea / Queensland

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looks to be moving WSW and not SW
i.e heading more torwards Cairns than townsville
at the moment
Image
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