Tropical Cyclone Edna - Coral Sea

[Nev]

Currently ex-TC Edna, thought it might pay to start a new thread on this one, as she is expected to redevelop into a more significant TC from later tonight.

Following on the heels of TC Dylan, which made landfall on Friday, Edna, a midget TC, was initially named around midday on Saturday, while about 400 km ENE of Mackay, then downgraded to an ex-TC after less than 12 hours later that night.

Status of ex-TC Edna earlier this morn…

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:14 pm EST on Monday 3 February 2014

At 10 pm EST Monday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna with central pressure 1000 hPa
was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 14.0 south longitude 155.6 east,
which is about 1100 km east northeast of Cairns.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna is moving eastwards at 21 kilometres per hour and
expected to deepen slowly over the next 24 hours as it moves southeast toward
New Caledonia. The system is located well off the coast of Queensland and is
not likely to have an immediate impact on Queensland's weather.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1318 UTC 03/02/2014
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 155.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east [100 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
…

REMARKS:
A relatively small sized system and embedded in the monsoon trough, Ex-TC Edna
continued to maintain deep convection near its centre in the last 12 hours. The
system centre was located primarily with the latest ASCAT pass and has been
moving eastwards but is expected to take a more southeastwards track in the next
12 to 24 hours and then curve towards the south due to an upper trough to its
southwest.

Outflow remains very good in the northern and eastern quadrants. The system is
currently in a moderate shear zone however movement over the next 24 hours will
see the system in a reduced shear environment. This may enable the cloud
structures to improve with gales wrapping around a little further than just the
NE quadrant. The current intensity is T=2.0 though a Dvorak analysis was not
possible due to a lack of distinct convective features.

Some model guidance suggests the system will intensify as it moves past New
Caledonia, despite an increase in shear.
…

The first sat-pic below is of TC Edna late on Saturday arvo, with the remnants of ex-TC Dylan over inland Queensland. The second sat-pic is her more recent location back up in the Soloman Sea…

[Manukau heads obs]

an interesting one alright

the trough is extending down nicely this way now...in line with worse case for models even...

[Nev]

This morn's update not quite so optimistic…

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:48 am EST on Tuesday 4 February 2014

At 4 am EST Tuesday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna with central pressure 998 hPa was
located over the Coral Sea near latitude 14.1 south longitude 156.9 east, which
is about 1230 km east northeast of Cairns.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna is expected to adopt a southeast track while
developing slowly today. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna may reform into a tropical
cyclone tonight, however by this stage the system should be situated outside
the Eastern Region. The system is situated well off the Queensland coast and it
is not likely to directly affect Queensland's weather.

No further Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletins will be issued unless the
system is expected to redevelop inside the Eastern Region.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1909 UTC 03/02/2014
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 156.9E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east [097 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
…

REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with a 0.2 degree wrap and an
added 0.5 for white band, giving a DT of 1.5. MT and PT give 1.5. FT based on MT
as DT is not completely clear.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna is a midget system embedded in the monsoon trough with
near gale force winds observed in the monsoon flow to the north of the system.
Deep convection has persisted near the centre of the system overnight, though
this convection may be slightly displaced to the east of the centre due to the
westerly shear associated with an upper trough moving across the southern and
central Coral Sea.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna should begin to be steered towards the southeast today
under the influence of the upper trough situated over the southern and central
Coral Sea. The system should develop slowly today, but it appears that the
system will have a better chance of reforming tonight. Most of the computer
model guidance intensify the system slightly tonight as the system heads towards
New Caledonia.

[Nev]

JTWC put out a TC Formation Alert for Edna around midday today…

WTPS22 PGTW 032300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
260 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 156.6E TO 20.9S 163.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 032230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6S 157.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
153.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 157.4E, APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031642Z NOAA-18
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, BEGINNING TO TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
042300Z.//
NNNN

Also noted by RSMC Nadi…

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 03/2336 UTC 2014 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF SOLOMON
ISLANDS. IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NADI AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
AROUND 040900UTC.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM, MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPENS IT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[Nev]

RSMC Nadi reinstated Edna's TC status earlier this evening…

GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 04/0657 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8
SOUTH 160.1 EAST AT 040600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.8S 160.1E AT 040600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 041800 UTC.
…
THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0757 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA 12F CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
160.1E AT 040600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
…

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT AROUND THE LLCC IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YEILDING DT OF
3.0, MET=3.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION.

[bjb]

Interesting that Fiji Met have kept the name of Edna.
It was downgraded to a tropical low for three days.
Fiji were going to issue a further report at 9.00 UTC.
They obviously thought an early upgrade was in order.

North to NE winds here in Vila today, very gusty at times.
That is normally a sign that something is brewing to the west.
Once more New Caledonia will get the main impact, even if only Cat. 1

Barry

[Nev]

I think once a system is named, it will always retain that name, regardless of its TC status, unless of course it completely dissipates or is absorbed by another system.

And yes, it appears as if RSMC Nadi were just waiting for her to enter their AOR.

Check out the third little developing low-centre to the west of Edna…

[Nev]

Last night's advisories…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 04/1351 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA CENTRE [995HPA] CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
161.5E AT 041200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
…

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC PERSISTANT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN
NORTHWESTERLY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YEILDING DT OF 3.0,
MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING AFTER 6 TO 12 HOURS.
…

WTPS32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032251Z FEB 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 001
…

REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTHWEST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED AS FORMATIVE BANDS,
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH, HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A NOTCH FEATURE ON THE 040935Z 37GHZ
SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-40 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, PHFO, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05
DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD BIAS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND DRIVE TC 12P
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36. AS TC EDNA TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STIFLE ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE WIDELY SPREADS
OUT OVER TIME - A TYPICAL INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX - AND LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 032300). //
NNNN

[Nev]

TC Edna probably at her peak right now, and reminiscent of TC June's demise, is about to interact with New Caledonia's northern tip…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 04/2009 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA 12F CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
162.4E AT 041800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
…

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND THE LLCC IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF AN UPPER TROUGH. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 WRAP YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0.
FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION.
...

[Nev]

Edna was upgraded to Cat 2 this arvo...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 05/0142 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA 12F CENTRE 985HPA CAT 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8S
163.3E AT 050000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS IR AND VIS
IMAGERY, RADAR OBSERVATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 24 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC WITH PRIMARY BAND TO THE
SOUTH WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTRE IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM
LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH BUT FAIR ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON AN EMBD PATTERN, CENTRE EMBD IN DG YEILDING
DT OF 4.0, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.5. FT BASED ON PT THUS,
T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION.
...

WTPS32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 002
…
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 163.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT AND SYMMETRIC CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE INFRARED ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 052048Z SSMIS 37GHZ PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
45-55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND NFFN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WITH PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING LOCATED ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY SPEED DIVERGENCE INTO
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. TC EDNA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXPERIENCE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT DAY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. AFTER TAU 24 THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW
26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC EDNA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 72 WITH THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION OCCURRING EARLIER
BY ABOUT TAU 48. AN EARLIER DISSIPATION WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE LAST FORECAST AND ALL CONSENSUS
MEMBERS NOW INDICATE SOME FORM OF A SOUTH- TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AND PLACED SLIGHTLY EAST OF
CONSENSUS TO BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE NAVGEM MODEL; WHICH HAS HAD
THE BEST INDIVIDUAL TRACKER PERFORMANCE THUS FAR. BASED ON THE
CONSOLIDATING GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

[Nev]

Still at Cat 2 after giving New Caledonia a drenching today. Let's see if she survives the night…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 05/0754 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA 12F CENTRE 985HPA CAT 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9S
164.4E AT 050600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AERIAL EXTENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE AND IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.0,
MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.5/S1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
…

[Nev]

JTWC said at about 10pm last night that Edna should maintain its current intensity over the next 24 hrs due to sustained poleward outflow and favourable SST's…

WTPS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 003
…
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 164.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (EDNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM WEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE DEPTH EVEN AS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEGUN TO FRAY - AN INDICATION OF
INCREASING SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION ON A RADAR LOOP FROM METEO FRANCE, NEW CALEDONIA, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 07 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING LOCATED ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY SPEED
DIVERGENCE INTO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. TC EDNA WILL CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
SUSTAINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC EDNA
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72 WITH THE STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION OCCURRING EARLIER BY ABOUT TAU 48. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. //
NNNN

[Nev]

Doesn't look much like a TC this morn and I expect TCWC Wellington (MS) will be declaring her an ex-TC this morn. Final Advisory from RSMC Nadi before Edna moved into NZ's AOR...

GALE WARNING 012 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/1347 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0
SOUTH 165.5 EAST AT 051200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 24.0S 165.5E at 051200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
35 KNOTS BY 060000 UTC.
…
PRIMARY RESPONSIBILTY FOR FUTURE WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA
WILL REST WITH WELLINGTON.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 05/1358 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0S 165.5E
AT 051200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST OF AND UPPER TROUGH IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 2.5,
MET=2.5 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
…

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EDNA

[Manukau heads obs]

20 kts is a fast mover

[Nev]

It's official, Edna is now an ex-TC (again)…

Issued by MetService...

GALE WARNING 050
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 051800UTC
Low 998hPa, former Cyclone EDNA, near 26S 167E moving southeast 15kt.
Within 120 nautical miles of low in sector from east through south to southwest: Clockwise 35kt easing next 6-12 hours.
Gale area moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 045.

Issued at 7:22am Thursday 6 Feb 2014