Thought it might pay to start a thread on this developing TD that may be heading down our way soon.
Its chances of becoming a TC in the next 24 to 48 hrs have up upgraded by RSMC Nadi from 'low' last night to 'moderate/high' today…
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 08/2304 UTC 2014 UTC.
...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 18F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S 168.4E AT
082100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST/SOUTHEAST IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
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JTWC this evening have also upgraded this low's TC chances in the next 24 hrs to medium...
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZMAR2014//
RMKS/
...
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S
171.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 169.2E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS
BUT IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE REGION
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
Edit: Updated sat-pic
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WTPS21 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 169.0E TO 13.2S 163.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S 167.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
169.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE BUILDING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
STARTED TO FORM IN THE PERIPHERIES. A 090634Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
BECOME APPARENT IN THE CDO FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100900Z.//
NNNN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW HIGH
Quite a lot of flaring this morn, despite some interaction with northern Vanuatu. She's been moving west overnight, but should start turning back ESE today. RSMC Nadi also began issuing Advisories yesterday evening and expect her to become a TC by at least tomorrow night (if not sooner?)…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 09/1326 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 167.1E
AT 091200UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD18F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
NORTH, BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM BEING STEERED WESTWARDS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SOUTH. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 300HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 1.5, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE CURVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR TD18F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 15.2S 166.8E MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 15.1S 166.8E MOV ESE AT 02 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 15.7S 167.8E MOV ESE AT 06 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 16.7S 169.7E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 092000 UTC.
Included below are both yesterday evening's and this early morn's track-maps…
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the further west this goes before moving NZ way, the more likely it will go down the west side of the NI
which is better for rain into the areas that need it the most
JTWC have already given her TC status (based on 1-minute wind speeds)…
WTPS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090851ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 167.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
...
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 167.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE LOOPED CLOCKWISE AND
IS NOW POISED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 18P IS JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW LAYER REFLECTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD.
FINALLY, NEAR TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TC 18P TO RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. IN THE NEAR- TO
MID-TERM, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STR AXIS, VWS WILL RELAX AND
PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION - PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK PHILOSOPHY;
HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF THE DEVELOPING STAGE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND
102100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW
090900). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN
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too early to quote windspeeds or rainfall totals
its the general trend that is important in the models
i.e a large and deep low of tropical origin
the wind field south of the low as it pushes into the high/ranges, will be stronger than modelled just for the center for starters
TC Lusi was officially named by RSMC Nadi at about 1pm NZDT today...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 10/0014 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 166.9E AT
092200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR/VISHR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. LUSI MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 08
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTH
SEMICIRCLE
…
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT.PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT
THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHERLY MOVEMENT THAN SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 10/0751 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI CAT 1 CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
167.3E AT 100600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR/VIS AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT AND HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT.
PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=3.0 AND
PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 15.5S 168.1E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 16.3S 169.5E MOV ESE AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 17.6S 171.4E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 19.3S 173.5E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 101400 UTC.
WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 002
...
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 166.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM
NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AND
TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 100531Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM SEEN IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME
VALUE FROM PGTW AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHILE SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A BREAK OF TWO NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGES (NER) TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TC LUSI IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS
POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE THE NER
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE TC
17P POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST. AFTER
TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL START A WEAKENING TREND. THESE
FACTORS WILL ALSO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96 WITH
COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VARIED IN THE TIMING OF THE NER ASSUMING STEERING IN THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEREFORE FURTHER SPREAD LATER IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH, MOST AGREE WITH THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY. DUE TO
THIS SPREAD, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULT-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Lusi's centre passed back over northern Vanuatu overnight and appears to be intensifying more rapidly than previous forecasts. Nadi currently expects Cat 2 by tonight and, while still within a few 100 kms east of central Vanuatu, Cat 3 by tomorrow night.
This morn's advisory from RSMC Nadi…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 10/1408 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI CAT 1 CENTRE 988HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
167.2E AT 101200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45
KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WHITE BAND ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT
THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 15.4S 167.8E MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 16.0S 169.1E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 17.0S 171.0E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 18.3S 172.9E MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 102000 UTC.
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WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 003
...
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP
INTO THE LLCC. A 101651Z NOAA-18 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A BREAK OF TWO NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGES (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TC LUSI IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE THE NER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO THE WEST AND
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE TC 18P POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL START A
WEAKENING TREND. THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AT TAU 96 WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARIED IN THE TIMING OF THE NER ASSUMING
STEERING IN THE EARLY TAUS AND FURTHER SPREAD LATER IN THE FORECAST.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE
SPREAD AMONG MODEL TRACKS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Yes, right over the top of Vanuatu atm, but now at Cat 2...
STORM WARNING 018 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 11/0104 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9
SOUTH 168.0 EAST AT 110000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.9S 168.0E at 110000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS BY 120000 UTC.
...
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 11/0352 UTC 2014 UTC.
******** CORRECTION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE CATEGORY******
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI CAT 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S
168.0E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.
…
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT. PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES
JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 3.5,
MET=3.5 AND PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 16.5S 169.4E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 17.2S 171.3E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 18.2S 173.3E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 19.9S 174.9E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 110800 UTC
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Not too much improvement today due to land interaction, but yes, several islands in Vanuatu have reported flooding, destroyed houses and crops, plus one fatality caused by a falling branch.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 11/0801 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI CAT 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9S
168.4E AT 110600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 05
KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS WITHIN NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
…
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT BUT IS DISPERSED OVER 300NMI OF LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CDO PATTERN WITH THICKNESS
OF APPROXIMATELY 75NMI YEILDING DT OF 3.0, MET=3.0, CI=3.5 AND
PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 17.5S 170.1E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 18.4S 172.1E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 19.8S 173.9E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 21.7S 175.2E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 111400 UTC.
WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 003//
…
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP
INTO THE LLCC. A 101651Z NOAA-18 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 18P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A BREAK OF TWO NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGES (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. TC LUSI IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE THE NER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO THE WEST AND
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE TC 18P POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL START A
WEAKENING TREND. THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AT TAU 96 WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARIED IN THE TIMING OF THE NER ASSUMING
STEERING IN THE EARLY TAUS AND FURTHER SPREAD LATER IN THE FORECAST.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE
SPREAD AMONG MODEL TRACKS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Lusi is finally moving out to the East.
Currently off the east coast of Epi island.
Wind and rain has picked up in Port Vila since 7.30pm.
I expect that will continue through the night.
The wind should move from the S SE quarter to the NW as the system passes.
Pressure at our place got down to 997 around 6.00pm, been steady since then.
To make things interesting I am booked to fly down to Auckland on Sunday.
At the rate the system is moving I may get both the Vanuatu and NZ sides.
