Tropical Cyclone Lusi - Vanuatu

Manukau heads obs · Thu 13/03/2014 15:20

too me, it looks like it has actually intensified in the last few hours alright
and its moving fast too
so if maintains or only slowly looses intensity over the next 12 hours then look out NZ

also I dont see it moving due south...I dont see any swing to the SSW...to get that you would need the baroclinic leaf outflow area to be swinging more to the SW...thats not happening (at the moment)

could be my famous last words though

ps, can see the high cloud from it already way to the north

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 13/03/2014 15:39

I've just added Nadi's latest track-map to my previous post… worth a look.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 13/03/2014 15:43

never seen a track map like it
holly cow

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Thu 13/03/2014 16:04

That is one strong storm. Its keeping a lot of its intensity! But the tracks are trending more and more west, so conditions for Auckland at least appear to be looking mild, relatively speaking.

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 13/03/2014 16:22

Vertigo wrote:That is one strong storm. Its keeping a lot of its intensity! But the tracks are trending more and more west, so conditions for Auckland at least appear to be looking mild, relatively speaking.

Yeah, I think I probably won't break any records (my max gust is 86 km/h)

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 13/03/2014 17:05

Must be an error? Models arnt showing up anything that warrants CAT 2

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Thu 13/03/2014 17:16

Man, I have never seen a track map for a cyclone that goes further south than that.....

iomkiwi · Unread post by **iomkiwi** » Thu 13/03/2014 20:05

Did anyone else see the Campbell Live interview with Daniel Corbett?
The map/animation he used had it at Cat 2 until south of Auckland and then it went back to Cat 3 briefly as it got west of Taranaki

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Thu 13/03/2014 20:09

iomkiwi wrote:Did anyone else see the Campbell Live interview with Daniel Corbett?
The map/animation he used had it at Cat 2 until south of Auckland and then it went back to Cat 3 briefly as it got west of Taranaki

Yup, seems that Metservice agree with RSMC Nadi.....

iomkiwi · Unread post by **iomkiwi** » Thu 13/03/2014 20:13

Here's the link, they just put the clip up
http://www.3news.co.nz/Cyclone-Lusi-hea ... fault.aspx

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 13/03/2014 21:03

Latest track-map from RMSC Nadi looks a bit different…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/0757 UTC 2014 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI CAT 3 CENTRE 965HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.2S 174.4E AT 130600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS. CYCLONE
WEAKENING.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW
QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

OVERALL ORGANNISATION REMAINS GOOD. LLCC GETTING PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
DEEP CONVECTION IS GETTING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES EAST OF AND UPPER TROUGH IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE WITH MG SURROUND
YEILDING DT=4.0, MET=4.0 AND
PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS. CI 0.5 HIGHER THAN
FT FOR INTIAL WEAKENING.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 25.6S 174.4E MOV S AT 12 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 28.1S 173.9E MOV S AT 12 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 30.5S 173.4E MOV S AT 13 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
LUSI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 131400 UTC

Manukau heads obs · Thu 13/03/2014 21:26

thats more what you would expect for the track map
you can turn off the alarm bells now LOL

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 13/03/2014 21:44

I think the Fijians are just winding us up, lol.

Tonight's JTWC remarks…

WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 008//
...
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 173.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM
SOUTHWESTWARD OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 18P HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND FAIRLY WELL DEFINED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE WEAKENING
STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE MSI ALONG WITH FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS STARTING TO COMPLETELY OFFSET THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP. TC 18P
HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC LUSI IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER TRACK SOUTH ALONG THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ADDITIONALLY
BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD LEADING TO FURTHER
WEAKENING. TC 17P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE VWS FURTHER INCREASES FROM THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES, WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 13/03/2014 22:08

JTWC says the winds will only be 35 knots average at 7am Saturday, sounds on the low side to me.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 13/03/2014 22:32

Metservice smoking the same stuff as Fiji?? Or maybe just copying there forecasts...

I think both are well off, always held more confidence in the JTWC

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 14/03/2014 06:08

Down to Cat 2 this morn (looks like she might already be a 'gone-burger' though?).

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/1415 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI CAT 2 CENTRE 974HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2S
174.1E AT 131200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
…
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS BEEN DISTURBED WITH LLCC EXPOSED. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES TO
THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. LUSI IS STEERED
TO THE SOUTH BY A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. SSTs AROUND 26
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN OF 1/2
DEGREE YIELDING A DT = 3.0 MET = 3.5, PT = 3.5. FT BASED ON MET THUS,
T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH A WEAKENING TREND.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 27.9S 173.7E MOV S AT 14 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 30.7S 173.1E MOV S AT 14 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 33.7S 172.3E MOV SSW AT 15 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LUSI.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/03/2014 06:13

well and truly sheared off now
but still lots of cloud left around the area of the LLCC
which is rotating rapidly...you can just make that out on the sat image animation
still moving due south by my reckoning
GFS has a very tight center now, moving down west of the NI
if that moves closer it could make it very windy from the NNW as it passed by...that has happened here before...these ex TC's sometimes can have surprisingly strong winds close to the center sometimes..
just look at the last one which passed near north cape...did not look like much on the sat image but ended up having 55knt average speed

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/03/2014 06:56

Sam on TV1 breakfast mentioned Jamies Karva comment, LOL
can see the center better now on the latest sat image
very strong winds circulating around the center...you can see that on the cloud movement to the west of the center on the sat image animation

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 14/03/2014 06:59

Haha did he? What did he say?

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 14/03/2014 08:04

Saw the rerun… Sam was showing the discrepancy between Nadi's arvo and evening track-maps yesterday and made a similar comment about kava.

TC Luci now being in MS's AOR…

Subtropic high seas forecast

Issued by MetService at 7:34am Friday 14 Mar 2014

Forecast valid to 1:00am Saturday 15 Mar 2014: Tropical Cyclone Lusi 977hPa near 27S 174E, moving southsouthwest 20 knots. Ridge 29S 152E 35S 159E 39S 177E 39S 170W, slow moving. North of ridge: Easterly quarter 25kt, tending clockwise about the Tropical Cyclone with storms and gales as in warning 240 and areas of heavy swell and poor visibility in rain.

Outlook following 72 hours

Ridge 30S 155E to southeast moving southeast. Tropical Cyclone Lusi near 30S 173E,moving south and becoming extratropical low by 151200UTC.Easterly 20 to 30kt east of ridge,tending clockwise 25kt to gale around low with storm close to low and areas of heavy swells. Trough expected along 155E around 160000UTC,then moving southeast. Northerly 20 to 30kt west of ridge east of trough.Southwest 20 to 30kt west of trough.

TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM WARNING 240
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone LUSI [977hPa] centre was located near 26.9 South 173.5 East at 131800 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 26.9S 173.5E at 131800 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southsouthwest 20 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre with high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 420 nautical miles of centre in the southern semicircle and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the northern semicircle with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast position near 29.7S 172.6E at 140600 UTC
and near 32.9S 171.9E at 141800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 239.

Issued at 7:32am Friday 14 Mar 2014

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 14/03/2014 08:10

It doesn't look like its holding a lot of rain

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 14/03/2014 08:24

JTWC's final warning…

WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 173.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 173.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.5S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 173.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (LUSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GROSSLY ELONGATED AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECAME EXPOSED AND THE CONVECTION
SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED SOUTHWARD OF THE LLCC. COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION
IS ALSO EVIDENT ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK - AN INDICATION OF IMMERSION
INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW TO REFLECT THE DELAYED WEAKENING TYPICAL OF
EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18P IS NOW
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF HIGH (40-50
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DATA, INCLUDING A 131000Z
AMSU-B RADIAL/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FROM CIRA, INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS
NOW A BONA FIDE COLD-CORE LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. //
NNNN

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 14/03/2014 13:38

Former TC Lusi is now officially an extratropical cyclone…

MetService - High Seas Forecast: Subtropic

STORM WARNING 242
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 140000UTC
Over waters south of 25S.
Low 977hPa, former Cyclone LUSI, near 28S 173E moving southsouthwest 15kt.
1. Within 60 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 50kt.
2. Outside area 1 and in a belt 300 nautical miles wide centred on a line 29S 179E 30S 174E 29S 171E: Easterly 35kt.
3. Outside areas 1 and 2 and within 180 nautical miles of low in sector from southwest through northwest to east: Clockwise 35kt.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 240.

Issued at 1:31pm Friday 14 Mar 2014

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/03/2014 13:43

977hpa is around the value that GFS pegged 10 days ago....(ok, it was more like 970)
GFS back then had it maintaining that central pressure as it crossed the NI
then GFS back right off to have it only as 995 as it passed north cape...its not going to fill that fast!
My guess will be a 980 or 985 low as it passes close to north cape..will be storm force winds near the center

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 14/03/2014 19:54

Centre currently about 600 km N of Cape Reinga...

MetService - High Seas Forecast: Subtropic

GALE WARNING 245
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
AT 140600UTC
Low 984hPa, former Cyclone LUSI, near 29S 173E moving southsouthwest 15kt.
1. Within 180 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 45kt.
2. Outside area 1 and in a belt 300 nautical miles wide centred on a line 29S 177W 32S 175E 31S 168E: Easterly 40kt.
Gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 242.

Issued at 7:15pm Friday 14 Mar 2014

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