UK Weather - Spring 2014

[Simon Culling]

Spring has come much earlier this year and the day I returned to the UK from France (Sunday 9th March) was the warmest day of the year so far with crystal clear blue skies over much of England + Wales. Max temps were:

20.5*C at Gravesend (E London)
20.2*C at St James Park, London
20.1*C at RAF Northolt (W London)
19.2*C at London Heathrow
18.5*C at RAF Benson (Oxon) + Cranwell (Lincs)
18.4*C at Brize Norton (Oxon) + Coleshill (WS Midlands)

It has remained warm with sunny spells for much of the last week and more importantly, it has been dry, giving the flooded areas a chance to dry out. This weekend was mostly sunny and warm with temperatures over much of England + Wales between 15-18*C.

CET for March was 7.1*C (+1.9*C) up to the 15th and the EWR was just 19mm up to the 14th - average for the month is 74mm. This week will be a little cooler with some rain.

[Simon Culling]

The weather has remained mostly dry and on the warm side for the time of the year, but we will pass into some returning polar maritime air from Friday and through the coming weekend and this is always a good set up at this time of the year for some decent convection. With SST's at their lowest and the sun now higher in the sky to give some decent day warming, it wont take too much instability to get things going. Its not typically a sheared environment, but the air will be clear and quite cold, so we could see plenty of (small) hail.

[Simon Culling]

There was plenty of convection over last weekend and through much of the last week, with thunder reported on a couple of days in many parts of England. It was cooler with some of the showers falling as hail, sleet and wet snow. The night of Sun/Mon (23rd/24th March) was the coldest of the winter in many parts of England with minimum temperatures recorded at Met Office sites:

-6.8*C at Redesdale Camp (Northumberland)
-6.3*C at RAF Topcliffe (N Yorks)
-6.1*C at Cromdale (Highlands, Scotland)
-5.3*C at RAF Leeming (N Yorks)
-5.1*C at RAF Marham (Norfolk)
-5.0*C at Benson (Oxfordshire)
-4.2*C at Exeter Airport (Devon)

It has warmed up this weekend and the prospects are for a very warm week to come with potentially some thundery weather coming up from the south later in the week.

CET for March was 7.4*C (+1.8*C) up to the 29th and the EWR was 48mm (69% of monthly average) up to the 28th.

[Simon Culling]

As predicted, it warmed up over the weekend and Sunday (30th March) was the warmest day of the year so far with maximum temperatures of:

20.9*C at St James Park (London) + Santon Downham (Norfolk)
20.7*C at Porthmadog ( NW Wales)
20.4*C at RAF Northolt (NW London)
20.2*C at RAF Marham (Norfolk)
19.8*C at London Heathrow

A few showers and thunderstorms developed over the Irish Sea this afternoon (Monday), but the few storms that developed in N France died out as they crossed the Channel.

[Simon Culling]

The run of winds from the continent has continued and yesterday (Weds 2nd April) was the warmest day of the year so far, with the far SE of England catching some rays and max temps of 21.0*C at Frittenden (Kent) and 20.6*C at Herstmonceux (E Sussex). However, the big talking point (and rather a lot of hot air to boot!) has been the combination of relatively high pollution levels and the washing out of Saharan dust from the atmosphere.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26863228

[Simon Culling]

March CET ended up at 7.6*C (+2.0*C) and the EWR was only 55mm (74% of average). So far in April the CET is 10.9*C (+4.5*C) up to the 6th and the EWR is 8mm up to the 5th....the monthly average is 62mm.

It has remained mild, but we have seen some rain at times as well. This will continue through this week and the weekend (although mostly dry + fine) and then the Met Office is going for 2 weeks of warm and settled weather for the south which will make April the fifth warmer than average month in a row.....and a lot warmer than average. This has been quite a switch from a few years of generally average or a bit below average temperatures.....it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

The pollution was shunted away to the east by a weather front last Friday and the air has been much clearer.

[Simon Culling]

A dry and pleasant weekend for a change with plenty of sunshine today (Sunday) with a maximum temperature here in Milton Keynes of 15*C.

The weekend forecasts have warned us of strong sunshine levels more typical of June than mid-April because of a temporary depletion of stratospheric ozone. The Met Office offers an explanation:

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/

I presume something similar is possible in the southern hemisphere spring?

[tunster]

A dry and pleasant weekend for a change with plenty of sunshine today (Sunday) with a maximum temperature here in Milton Keynes of 15*C.

The weekend forecasts have warned us of strong sunshine levels more typical of June than mid-April because of a temporary depletion of stratospheric ozone. The Met Office offers an explanation:

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/

I presume something similar is possible in the southern hemisphere spring?

I have heard of something like this happening (parts of the ozone "hole" move over mid-latitudes with the break up of the winter vortex?), but UV values over NZ in mid-October under normal conditions would already match and exceed the typical high summer values in the UK.

[Simon Culling]

CET for April up to the 22nd was 9.9*C (+2.4) and the EWR up to the 21st was 33mm (54% of the average). With a wet weekend to come that total will rise towards the average. The mild temperatures of 2014 so far are certainly worth a comment. if you look at the link for the average CET, this year is by far the warmest on record and is in stark contrast to the recent cooling trend evident from the moving average. Has the cooling trend been reversed? Only time will tell, but the synoptics have switched to more northern blocking recently, so perhaps a cool (and wet) end to spring is in the offing.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

We have seen some thundery activity in the last couple of days with a few decent storms firing up just to the west of me (and moving away to the WSW) giving marble sized hail in Oxfordshire and Wiltshire on Monday and a big storm in central Devon yesterday afternoon (Tuesday 22nd) with decent hail and a funnel cloud.

[Simon Culling]

CET for April up to the 26th was 10.0*C (+2.3*C) and the EWR up to the 25th was 45mm, which is 73% of the monthly average. The showery weather has continued with three funnel clouds reported from eastern England on Thursday 24th April. This was a day of 'cauliflower cumulus' development, although they were quite well spread out and it appears the funnel clouds came from TCu rather than Cb's.

It is likely to remain showery this coming week with near average temperatures, but the models are clear now on a northerly outbreak from Thursday (1st May) bringing unseasonably cold weather with hill snow in the north and fairly widespread frosts for a few day. At least it will have some sunshine and not to much rain!

[Simon Culling]

Monday (28th April) saw the warmest day of the year so far......but in the Highlands of Scotland. With winds from the E or SE, local fohn effects can give some fabulous weather to the north and west of Scotland particularly in April and May when winds from these directions are most frequent......with high pressure to the north or northeast. Aviemore reached 22.0*C and Altnaharra 20.9*C, but it was quite a bit cooler over England + Wales at 14-16*C with a few showers and thunderstorms.

The predicted strong northerly flow was gradually downgraded during the week as the coldest air plunged south further east over Scandinavia, but it was quite cool today at just 11*C and rather cloudy. The skies have cleared this evening and there will be quite a widespread late season frost....so gardeners will need to protect their tender plants. The usual cold spots are already down to 0-2*C at 11pm.

[Simon Culling]

Saturday (3rd May) saw a slight frost over much of central and eastern England and Scotland - it was cloudy on the west side of the UK, with minimums of :

-3.9*C at Topcliffe (N Yorks) + Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)
-3.7*C at Kinbrace Fisheries (Highlands)
-3.0*C at Redesdale (Northumberland)
-2.9*C at RAF Benson (Oxon)
-1.8*C at Woburn (Bedfordshire)
-1.7*C at Upper Lambourn (Berkshire)
-1.6*C at Church Lawford (Warwickshire)

These are not record breaking temperatures, but are notable for late spring and especially after such a mild winter where some stations barely recorded a frost. The day itself here in Milton Keynes was mostly sunny but rather cool in the breeze with a maximum of 12*C. We had had a white frost in the morning with a minimum of just 0*C in the town.

[Simon Culling]

The final CET for April was 10.2*C (+2.3*C) and the EWR was 63mm (102% of the average). This continues the run of now 5 warmer than average months in a row.

For May, the CET was 10.5*C (+0.7*C) up to the 5th and the EWR was just 3mm up to the 4th. The average for the month is 65mm. The next 5 days will see a succession of low pressure systems pass over the UK with either rain or showers, but at least it will remain mild. There is increasing confidence in the model output of a change to warmer and drier weather from the middle of next week with plenty of sunshine, but I am not sure the jet stream will be shunted far enough north (allowing ridging from the Azores high) for this to happen.

[Simon Culling]

The unsettled and showery weather has continued through the weekend with a particularly breezy day on Saturday (10th May) as a low (989mb) moved westwards across N Ireland and northern England. The strongest winds were in the south with gusts to 50mph even inland. Highest gusts were:

64mph at Mumbles (S Wales)
58mph at Lake Vyrnwy (NW Wales)
57mph at Aberporth (W Wales) + Chivenor (Devon)
54mph at Bristol Filton Airport
52mph at RAF Lyneham (Wiltshire) + Little Rissington (Gloucestershire)

The CET for May was 11.3*C (+1.0*C) up to the 11th and the EWR was 31mm up to the 10th....48% of the monthly average. The forecast warmer and drier weather is indeed on its way from midweek especially for England and Wales with a strong ridge of high pressure building north east from the Azores.

[Simon Culling]

The weather has settled down today after a showery start to the week with plenty of hail and thunder. At least 10 funnel clouds were observed on Monday + Tuesday with one suspected of reaching the ground. Since then the low has been replaced by a high pressure of 1037mb centred over England at 1200GMT today (Thurs 15th) and we can expect 3 or 4 days of bright and warm weather through the weekend, although it is looking wetter next week. It reached 21.5*C at Heathrow and St Helens' Bay (in N Ireland) today and we could see at least 23-24*C by the weekend......an early burst of summer!

[Simon Culling]

The weekend has been fine and warm over much of England + Wales, but it has been wet and cool in N Ireland and western Scotland. Yesterday (Saturday 17th) was the warmest day of the year so far with a max temperature of 23.9*C at Santon Downham (Suffolk) and 23.8*C at London Heathrow + RAF Northolt. Today will likely be a tadge warmer in the same areas. There was 15-30mm of rain in western Scotland with highs between 10-12*C. The fine weather in more south eastern parts will continue through Monday but a low pressure will become slow moving in the SW Approaches for much of the coming week with the promise of plenty of thundery rain and cooler temperatures for all.

CET for May was 11.9*C (+1.2*C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 40mm (62%) up to the 16th. The temperature may fall a little this week, but the rainfall total will certainly rise. May will probably be the sixth warmer than average month in a row.

[Simon Culling]

It was warmer again on Sunday + Monday with the highest temperatures of the year so far set on Monday (19th) with 25*C reached quite widely over England:

26.3*C at London Heathrow
26.1*C at Gravesend-Broadness (Kent - SE London)
25.9*C at Pershore (Worcestershire) + Santon Downham (Suffolk)
25.0*C at Blackpool Airport (Lancashire) + Crosby (nr Liverpool)

With a stationery north-south front trailing down the west side of the UK and this supply of warm air advecting north ahead of it, quite active (electrically) thunderstorms broke out over Wales and NW England on Monday lunchtime and persisted into the evening with 20-30mm of rain recorded quite widely over west and north Wales. Low pressure combined with this supply of warm moist air from Europe will provide plenty of showers and thunderstorms over the next few days for most of the UK and it will remain rather humid.

CET for May was 12.4*C (+1.7*C) up to the 19th and the EWR was 41mm (63% of the monthly figure) up to the 18th with plenty more to come in the next 4-5 days....it will likely reach the monthly average by then.

[Simon Culling]

The warm weather soon passed and it has become cooler and much more unsettled again with showers or longer periods of rain, especially in the last few days and in eastern parts of the UK. Here in Milton Keynes it has been cool and wet on both Monday + Tuesday (26th + 27th) with light rain all day on both days and max temps of just 12*C. Some parts of Norfolk + Suffolk received 30-40mm of rain on Tuesday alone.

The CET for May was 12.4*C (+1.5*C) up to the 26th and the EWR was 83mm up to the 25th, which is 127% of the monthly average, with the two recent wet days not yet included. We are hoping that this wet pattern will not be the norm for yet another summer and that last years sunny and warm July wasn't just a freak!

[Simon Culling]

We had a cracking thunderstorm last Thursday (22nd May) in the early afternoon....it distracted us at work! It occurred between 13:40 and 14:10 and was part of an organised bunch of showers that developed over southern England and moved north. There were approx. 12 cloud-ground strikes nearby and some very loud gun-shot thunder almost instantaneously. There was plenty of rain, but it was the 10 minutes of hail that probably startled most people. Some of the stones were at least 15mm in diameter and made quite a noise on our metal roof. I was surprised not to see some paint chips on the cars parked outside. Thankfully the hail was not too heavy, but it almost whitened the ground for a short while and stripped leaves and small twigs from the trees. The link below has a screenshot of the Met Office lightning map for the time of the storm..

http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/update/2 ... ia-region/

[Simon Culling]

The London Shard was hit by lightning on the same day as the MK storm - Thursday 22nd May as this video shows:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiEbwjvuGbI

The London Shard is (I think) the tallest building in W Europe:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shard

[Simon Culling]

I attempted a site investigation of a possible tornado in Huntingdonshire on 22nd May, yesterday (Saturday), but with limited success. Some damage was found in a small village, but there was no-one about to talk too about it!. The funnel was seen over quite a wide area and appears to have reached the ground near Alconbury, but no-one I spoke to knew of any local damage. The linked videos definitely show the funnel reaching the ground.

http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/update/2 ... idgeshire/

http://www.newsflare.com/video/15240/ot ... hire-field

[Simon Culling]

The final CET for May was 12.2*C (+1.1*C) and the EWR was 102mm (156% of the average). This continues the run of warmer than average months to six in a row. Spring as a whole was warmer and slightly wetter than average.