US Storm Chasing 2014

[spwill]

You guys kept that quiet. Good luck, certainly a good time to be going. We were gutted those first few weeks last year when it never warmed up and we only had a couple of low risks.

NZstorm and I have booked to go over on the 16th of May, returning to NZ May 28th. Hopefully we can strike an active pattern but late May tends to produce decent storms almost every day anyway.

[jamie]

You guys returning to NZ on the 28th or leaving US on the 28th?

Recently 31st May over there has been a great day (which is my birthday hence i take notice what happens that day).

[spwill]

Arrive back in NZ on May 28th, 9 full days chasing but hopefully we will be chasing on our arrival day which is the 16th, fly into Denver with a night chase east of Denver all going well.

[tgsnoopy]

My flights to join Steven and Simon are now reserved. Looking forward to getting back over there to chase on the plains again.

[03Stormchaser]

If I didn't have a good friends wedding in Bali in May, I would have been there!

[spwill]

Great news you will be joining us Neil

[03Stormchaser]

Armchair chase day today: http://tvnweather.com/live

Right on the border of OK and TX looks where something will go up, still a few hours away yet though

[Peter]

Oh to be near Graham, Texas right now

[NZstorm]

Looks like another dryline set up tomorrow over western Oklahoma and warm front in southern Kansas. CAPE values could exceed 3000j/kg in Oklahoma!

[03Stormchaser]

Would be another good arm chair chase day!!

[NZstorm]

Reed Timmer tweeted

HRRR model is showing supercells developing ~6-7 pm CDT in N OK/S KS along warm front and also in NW TX

[03Stormchaser]

I think tomorrow will be the most severe day out of the three days, but its moving into less ideally chase country.

[NZstorm]

Not that active today for tornadoes as it turns out but plenty of golf ball hail reports from Kansas.

Tomorrow has bigger parameters so should be a big day.

[Willoughby]

A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OUT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AT THIS TIME WITH A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. AS THIS MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ENEWD ACROSS A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OZARKS AND MID MS
VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL AND SSWWD ALONG A
COLD FRONT IN SE KS AND NERN OK WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER. IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
BOUNDARIES...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
DISCRETE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM FAR ERN OK
EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MO AND AR.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. WSR-88D VWPS AT SPRINGFIELD MO...LITTLE ROCK
AR AND FORTH SMITH AR SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-3
KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 250 TO 300 M2/S2 RANGE. THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL JET IN THE SRN
PLAINS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FEATURE MERGES WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND THAT MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY. SEVERAL LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...THE MOST FAVORED CORRIDOR APPEARS
TO BE FROM SPRINGFIELD MO SWD TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK AND EWD TO NEAR
POPLAR BLUFF MO AND MEMPHIS TN.

[03Stormchaser]

I see North TX had some massive hail today!


http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-cen ... s-20140403

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Gorillas

[NZstorm]

Next set up in the pipeline for tornado alley looks a week away.

[Manukau heads obs]

I see blitzortung recorded 70,000 Lightning strikes Cross the lower states!

[NZstorm]

I see SPC have 10% tornado probs for the Gulf States tomorrow. Reed Timmer heading south!

[NZstorm]

Tornado warning in the last hour for Taylorsville Mississippi.

AT 220 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

[jamie]

Wow that's late at night and movin'

[NZstorm]

2014 quietest start to tornado season in 100 years according to USA today. Obviously the season is about to change.

[spwill]

Some active days coming up but the chase country may not be great.

[NZstorm]

The set up misses the plains tomorrow due capping but looks very active for Dixie Alley in the following days. I think Mississippi would be an okay state to chase in with flat open country. But Arkansas is very wooded.

[tgsnoopy]

Yes, many friends in the US are worried. The likely chase areas are dangerous with little to no visibility. With the potential for very fast moving violent tornadoes, many are sitting it out. Their main concern is for those with limited or no experience who are out giving it a go.