UK Weather - Autumn 2014

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Tue 09/09/2014 09:28

A glorious sunny and warm day today (Monday 8th September) with a few small Cu and cirrus and a maximum temperature here in Milton Keynes of 21*C. Some patchy fog on the way to work and this was the first morning that has looked autumnal with the mist/fog and that lower level of light. The trees are still mostly green, but the very cool weather in the second half of August has given a hint of the autumnal colours.

CET for September was 15.9*C (+1.2*C) up to the 7th and with a dry and warm week expected we may have returned to the warmer than average scenario that has persisted for the last 3 seasons. EWR up to the 6th was just 2mm reflecting the change to drier weather as we switched meteorological seasons. The average for the month is 78mm.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sun 14/09/2014 03:08

High pressure has continued to dominate our weather in the last week with rather non-descript weather. No worthwhile rain for many places so far in September with sunny periods and some cloud being the norm for most days, but it is still mild with daytime temperatures around 20*C for much of the time. The nights have been seasonably cool with fog forming quite often. I drove from Milton Keynes to South Wales early on Thursday morning and there were some beautiful views through the patchy fog as I journeyed through Oxfordshire and Wiltshire......I even witnessed a couple of fog bows, but too much traffic to stop and get a few pictures!

CET for September was 15.1*C (+0.7*C) up to the 12th and the EWR was just 3mm up to the 11th. The models are playing with some warmer air over southern areas from midweek which opens up the possibility of some thundery rain from the Continent.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Thu 18/09/2014 04:33

It has remained mostly warm and settled with the winds still from the NE. Days have been fine and sunny after overnight fog and low stratus has cleared. With the winds of a cool North Sea this low cloud often spreads inland overnight to give central and eastern England a gloomy start to the day, but the sun usually burns this back to the coast and most enjoy a sunny afternoon. In these setups the warmest weather is in the S and SW of England. Yesterday (Tues 16th) the highest temperatures reflected this:

25.3*C at Wiggonholt (W Sussex)
24.7*C at Yeovilton (Somerset)
24.5*C at Charlwood (Surrey) + Middle Wallop (Hampshire)

St Helier on the channel isle of Jersey reached 27.0*C. In contrast, on the east coast of England, Cromer only reached 17.3*C and Donna Nook only 16.7*C as a result of the on-shore breeze.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sat 20/09/2014 03:14

Yesterday (Thurs 18th Sept) was even warmer in southern England with highs of 26.3*C at Wiggonholt, 26.2*C at Writtle, 26.0*C at RAF Benson and 25.8*C at London Heathrow Airport. The warmth and increasing instability from the south set off some spectacular storms over southern counties and particularly Avon, Wilts, Hants and Glos, with some observers reporting 4-5 hours of continuous thunder and lightning. Only rain overnight here in Milton Keynes but we did have a good display of Altocumulus Castellatus (with some quite high towers) around tea time with a spectacular crepuscular ray display behind the Ac Cast - although the snap below (from a friend's bathroom!) does not do it justice.

Around 10pm yesterday evening I could see very faint flickers of lightning in the scattered Ac and broken cirrus for about 15 minutes, but the nearest sferic was around 80 miles away. This seems improbable, but there was definitely something flickering....and it was in the right direction, i.e. SW of me.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sun 28/09/2014 08:15

The dry settled weather has continued through the middle of September and looks set to prevail into the new month. It has also remained warmer than average with a reasonable amount of sunshine. The CET up to the 26th was 15.1*C (+1.4*C) which makes it a tad warmer than August. There have been a few cool mornings as the days are getting a lot shorter now (dark soon after 7pm) but a nip of frost has only been seen in the more vulnerable places and we have not yet had the first general frost. The EWR was just 14mm up to the 25th which is only 18% of the monthly average and there is not much rain in the weekly forecast.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sun 05/10/2014 05:28

The final CET for September was 15.1*C (+1.5*C) which made it 0.2*C warmer than August - an event that does not often occur. The EWR was just 16mm which is only 20% of the monthly average. It remained warm and dry until the end of the month and into the first few days of October, but it has turned a lot cooler today (Saturday 4th October) with plenty of rain. A much more unsettled theme is forecast for the week ahead with a more southerly (and active) jet.

There has been much debate about the dryness of September and which statistics to use when making a comparison. Depending upon which figures you use and whether they apply to the UK as a whole or just England and Wales, it was the driest for the UK since the Met Office records start (in 1910), but only the second driest for England, with 1959 holding the record. The Met Office also seem to have got into the habit of releasing such figures before the month has actually ended and then publishing the actual figures on their website without a fanfare a week or two later. They also seem to conveniently ignore the EWP series which dates back to 1766

.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... mber-stats

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 06/10/2014 07:22

Friday night into Saturday morning was very wet in NW England, SW Scotland and N Wales as a conveyor of warm air ahead of a slow moving cold front kept the rain going in these areas and orographic lift added to the rainfall totals. In the 24 hours to 0600GMT on Saturday morning (4th October) the highest totals were:

78.2mm at Ronaldsway Airport (Isle of Man)
77.2mm at St Bees Head (Cumbria coast)
76.0mm at Carlisle Airport
74.2mm at Eskdalemuir Observatory (Southern Uplands)
72.8mm at Keswick (Cumbria)
58.mm at RAF Valley (on Anglesey)

There were only a few reports of minor flooding. The front moved across the rest of the UK during Saturday giving between 5-15mm in many places which is more than the whole of September for many of these sites.

The week ahead will see a meandering jet across the Atlantic with the UK stuck on the north side of one of the troughs with a big low dumbbelling to our near West for much of the week - and this will provide plenty of showers and the chance of a few storms, especially over southern parts.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Wed 08/10/2014 09:49

The first general ground frost of the season over England occurred on Sunday (5th Oct) morning with an air frost at the usual frost prone sites. The lowest temperature of -1.1*C was recorded at Upper Lambourn in Berkshire with -0.8*C also recorded at South Newington and Santon Downham. Here in Milton Keynes we saw 2*C with a dusting of hoar frost on the cars.

The warm sea temperatures have provided a good few thunderstorms to southern and south western coasts of both Eire and England + Wales overnight Monday into Tuesday and through the day on Tuesday with a couple of waterspouts seen off Plymouth and Portland Bill. We have what is called 'returning polar maritime air' in place over the UK at the moment and this will bring cold north Atlantic air around the low pressure to our west and then return it NE over the UK. This will bring coldish air over a warm sea and hence the convection. The higher than average SST's this year could give us some good storms and heavy hail near the aforementioned coasts well into the winter.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 13/10/2014 04:13

The cool showery weather continued through the week with frequent showers and thunderstorms affecting western and southern coasts both day and night, moving inland during the day. Some sites have had thunder on 5 consecutive days and a number of tornadoes have been captured on video, which has historically been rare in the UK. All three occurred on the 8th with the most noteworthy being at Alfreton in Derbyshire.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-de ... e-29542740

Those videoed occurred in Haverthwaite (Cumbria) and Bromborough which is on the Wirral Peninsula in Merseyside.

http://www.thebay.co.uk/news/local-news ... h-cumbria/

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=80 ... =2&theater

There is some swearing on the second video (on Facebook)

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Fri 17/10/2014 07:55

October has seen a reversion to the wet weather that we saw last winter with plenty of activity in the Atlantic. A couple of Hurricanes have spiced up the mix supplying lots of warm moist air. Ex-Hurricane Fay has been absorbed into the large depression currently dominating the North Atlantic and this will force some quite warm air northwards over the UK Friday into Saturday, although the attendant rain and wind will cap the temperatures a bit. If we get some sunshine here in the SE half of England we could see 20/21*C which is not too shabby for this time of the year.

The CET for October was 11.6*C (-0.1*C) up to the 15th and the EWR was 74mm up to the 14th and this represents 85% of the monthly average of 87mm.

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sun 19/10/2014 07:48

Simon, I see that the remnants of Hurricane Gonzalo are expected to arrive in Britain about Tuesday - hope there are no major ill-effects.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sun 19/10/2014 11:56

Hurricane Gonzalo passed over Bermuda last night and will be off the coast of Newfoundland by 1200GMT on Sunday when it will be transitioning to an extra-tropical depression. It is then forecast to fade somewhat as it moves across the Atlantic but will be re-invigorated on Monday as it engages a sharpening shortwave trough moving SE from Greenland. It is currently forecast to pass close to the north shore of Scotland during Tuesday as deepening depression around the 975/980mb level but there is quite a bit of disagreement between the various models with some suggesting a more southerly track taking it into the North Sea with a risk of a storm surge for the east coast of the UK and for the Netherlands. The cold front looks interesting on the models and certainly has the potential for a few tornadoes.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 20/10/2014 04:23

It was very mild yesterday in the far SE of England and in East Anglia as they remained on the southern side of a weak front. Highest temperatures recorded were:

21.7*C at Frittenden (Kent)
21.6*C at Shoeburyness (Essex)
21.5*C at Gravesend (East London)
21.4*C at Weybourne (Norfolk)
21.3*C at Manston Airport (Kent)

It was even warmer in the Channel Islands with 22.3*C recorded at St Helier and 21.8*C at Jersey Airport.

The models have downgraded the upcoming depression with the remnants of Hurricane Gonzalo in tow as it is now not expected to cross the jet (into the colder side) until Tuesday when it will have crossed the UK. However, the models always struggle with ex-hurricanes and the amount of heat and moisture they bring so the picture might be different again tomorrow.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Wed 22/10/2014 10:26

The depression passed over Northern Scotland today at around 975mb at its deepest, but despite the media hype, was no more than a typical autumn storm. It was breezy and showery today here in Milton Keynes with an afternoon max of 12*C with the heavy showers being more noteworthy than the wind which gusted to about 40-45mph. However, with the trees still mostly in full leaf, some damage and injury resulted.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29700594

CET up to the 20th October was 12.3*C (+1.0*C) and the EWR was 95mm up to the 19th, which is 109% of the monthly average.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 27/10/2014 02:25

The recent damp and mild October weather has boosted the averages of both temperature and rainfall with the CET at 12.2*C (+1.2*C) up to the 25th and the EWR was 105mm up to the 24th, which is 120% of the monthly average.

It has been reasonably mild here in Milton Keynes apart from a short cold snap after the passage of the last depression in the middle of last week and we could see 18*C again tomorrow (Monday 27th). However, a conveyor of rain has become established over the NW Highlands of Scotland (from the middle of Saturday 25th) which will remain in place until the end of Monday when the front finally moves southwards. Low level sites such as Loch Glascarnoch (265masl) have already had 50mm+ of rain fall and the Met Office has a weather warning for between 100-200mm for this region for the 2-3 day period. Some of the hills will see a lot more than that so there is likely to be some flooding. Conversely, on the eastern side of Scotland it will be virtually dry.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Wed 29/10/2014 08:37

The Met Office rainfall forecast was correct for the NW of Scotland with a lot of rain falling in the last few days as a waving front remained over the area. It is moving south today and finally giving the area a break from the rain. The following rainfall figures for the 3 days (72hrs) to 0600GMT this morning (Tues 28th) are from low level sites:

227mm at Achnagart (at 15masl)
214mm at Kinlochewe (at 25masl)
150mm at Lusa (Isle of Skye - on the coast)
121mm at Tulloch Bridge (inland + in foothills at 237masl)
86mm at Aultbea (on the coast again)

There will have been double these totals on the hills. Conversely, on the eastern side of Scotland Aviemore had 41mm in this same period, with only 3mm at Aboyne and 2mm at Aberdeen. There was some flooding, but the biggest hazard in this area is landslides.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-n ... d-29798501

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sat 01/11/2014 09:14

The unusually mild weather culminated in a fabulous warm and sunny day today (Fri 31st Oct) over much of the UK. A new date maximum was set at 23.6*C at both Gravesend and Kew Gardens, both in London, but 20*C was exceeded in many places. The previous date record was just 19.4*C at Margate in 1968, so the record was smashed rather than broken and a high of 24*C is just about as hot as it can get at this time of the year - indeed it would have broken the November record by 2*C if it had happened tomorrow.

All good things come to an end and it will get progressively cooler over the next few days as a series of cold fronts cross the UK and we will have daytime max's of 10-12*C by Monday/Tuesday, which is around where it should be for early November.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 03/11/2014 12:36

As predicted, the warm weather has come to an end over the weekend and it is gradually getting cooler with plenty of showers. With the higher than average SST's around all coasts at the moment, any showers will have a bit more vigour than normal and this will mean more hail and thunder, especially for those coastal districts. Today (Sunday 2nd Nov) has been showery in all parts of the UK with troughs concentrating the showers - there was even a small tornado this morning in Coalville in Leicestershire.

http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Freak ... story.html

As you can see, the press also use the dreaded 'mini' word here in the UK.

The final CET for October was 12.5*C (+1.9*C) so yet another warmer than average month. The EWR came in at 115mm or 132% of the monthly average.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sat 15/11/2014 11:58

It has remained unsettled in the last week and again on the mild side with no widespread frosts. It has also been wet and the model followers are beginning to think in terms of last winter when all we got was wind and rain. I am not convinced yet, and indeed, the cold spell in the far west of the States at this time of the year has been an indicator of colder weather for Europe in the past as we go towards December. However, there is no sign of cold in the current model runs out to 240hrs.

CET for November was 9.2*C (+1.5*C) up to the 13th and the EWR was 63mm up to the 12th - already 68% of the monthly average. This continues the mild and wet theme of 2014 as it comes to a close.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sun 23/11/2014 03:15

The CET for November was 9.1*C (+2.0*C) up to the 21st and the EWR was 93mm up to the 20th, which is 101% of the monthly average. This continues the theme of a warm and wet year here in the UK - so far only August has had temperatures below the average. The weather has remained rather unsettled here in Milton Keynes but we have missed the worst of the rain. It has been rather cloudy and misty with the usual late autumn fogs in the morning.

The models are indicating a general cool down over the next week but also a ramping up of the jet later in the week. The very cold plunge of air that N America has been enjoying has caused a buckle in the jet and this, combined with quite a persistent block over Scandinavia, will likely mean it ends up further south than normal when it arrives at the UK. This will provide the potential for some colder weather as we go into December. However, it is only a potential.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 24/11/2014 10:52

A slow moving front over the SE part of the UK gave a cold and miserable day to Milton Keynes with rain all day (mostly light-moderate) and a daytime max of just 7*C. We had approx. 15mm here, but there was considerably more rain in the London area with 24hr totals to 1800GMT today (Sunday 23rd) of:

37.0mm at Hampstead
32.6mm at Hampton Waterworks
31.0mm at St James Park + RAF Northolt
30.4mm at RHS Wisley

This is a significant total for the London area, especially in the autumn.

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Sun 30/11/2014 04:12

It has been a rather dull and misty week with fog persisting well into the morning on a couple of days. It has been neither cold or mild - rather normal (and boring) late autumn weather. There have been many recent attempts at predicting the forthcoming winter by both professional and amateur alike, and the consensus of opinion is for a cooler and drier winter than last time around - a remarkable result considering it was the wettest and one of the mildest on record - it is statistically highly likely to be colder and drier!!!

The CET for November up to the 28th was 8.5*C (+1.8*C) and the EWR up to the 27th was 124mm (134% of the average).

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Mon 01/12/2014 04:24

Last Tuesday morning (25th Nov) was frosty with a light fog forming just short of the dawn period. Because it has been so mild this autumn all water bodies have not cooled as much as normal so when we have a frost they are prone to 'steaming' and producing an 'Arthurian' look. The small lake near to where I live always does this on a few mornings in autumn and did not let me down on Tuesday. A couple of pictures taken around 07:45:

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Mon 01/12/2014 06:16

Beautiful!

Simon Culling · Unread post by **Simon Culling** » Wed 03/12/2014 11:47

Thanks for your comment, Orion. I am afraid that I have still not invested in a better camera!

The mist on this particular lake swirls about surprisingly quickly and lifts and fades away as you watch some 20-30m above the water surface. Once the sun gets a few degrees above the horizon it disappears.

The final CET for November was 8.6*C (+2.0*C) making it 10 out of 11 warmer than average months in the UK for 2014. The current annual anomaly for the CET is +1.54 which is above the record yearly anomaly of +1.35 recorded in 2006, which means December will need to be rather cold for the record not to be broken. The anomaly is as compared to the 1961-90 average. The CET series goes back to 1659, so this will be the warmest year in the UK by this measure for over 350 years.

The final EWR for November was 125mm which is 135% of the average, continuing the theme of a wet year.

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