UK Weather - Winter 2014/15

[Simon Culling]

Winter has started on a rather cloudy and cool note but it has been mostly dry. The CET for December up to the 4th was 4.7*C (-0.4*C) and the EWR up to the same date was just 3mm. The average for the month is 96mm.

The forecast is for a continuance of this cool weather with cold fronts bringing a little rain followed by clearer and colder conditions. Today (Saturday 6th) dawned clear and sunny here in Milton Keynes but frosty (minimum -2*C) and it has been clear blue skies up to lunchtime, but the temperature has only risen to 4*C.

The Met Office forecast charts for the North Atlantic look interesting as the jet picks up steam. A deep low is expected to develop as it departs the USA and heads north east to be around 933mb by 1200GMT on Tuesday and centred just to the south west of Iceland. They could be in for some very stormy conditions by mid-week.

[Simon Culling]

The deep low was at 945mb (to the SW of Iceland) on the 1800GMT synoptic map today (Tues 9th Dec) with a long fetch of westerly winds across the north Atlantic predicted to be giving waves in the 40-60ft range. The low is expected to pass between Iceland and Scotland tomorrow filling to 950mb during this time and giving a taste of normal winter weather, i.e. some wind and rain. The newspapers have predicted a 'weather bomb' will hit the UK tomorrow but they have not realised it is now filling and is well north of these islands. Yes it will be a bit windy and cool, but the blizzard warnings apply to 2000ft+ altitude where no-one lives! The next low in this series will likely cross southern Scotland and this will probably bring worse weather to where most of us live. Those in the west of Scotland experience severe weather of this nature many times every winter and probably barely notice it!

[Simon Culling]

The low passed to the north of Scotland and gave it a windy day - the highest gust I could find was 81mph on the island of Tiree in the south of the Western Isles. This is nothing unusual for winter in this area. That said, the cold air behind the cold front brought a lot of lightning and hail activity to this area with most of the airports reporting thunder and/or hail in their observations. For example, the airport at Kirkwall (on the isle of Orkney) reported thunder at the site or in its vicinity in 14 out of 29 manual observations between 06:20 and 20:20 on the 10th - this would be considered a very active day for northern Scotland. At the time, the SST in the area would have been around 11*C and the air temperature between 2-5*C. The 1000-500 hPa was around 525 dam as per the map at this link:

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/uamap?R ... 2014121012

[Simon Culling]

The cold showery weather returned to the northern half of the UK yesterday with further thunder and hail to western and northern coasts of Scotland. They must be having their most thundery spell for some time. Thundersnow was reported from the airport at Kirkwell (on the island of Orkney) this morning:

EGPA 150620Z 33016KT 6000 -TSSN FEW005 BKN012CB BKN018 01/01 Q994

The current CET for December was 4.7*C (-0.3*C) up to the 14th so we are still on course for the warmest year in the 355 year CET record. The EWR up to the 13th was 29mm (30% of the monthly average) and remains a little below the running monthly mean.

Nothing particularly inspiring in the models with the current theme for Christmas Day being mild breezy and drizzly weather.

[Simon Culling]

The weather has been changeable in the last week but not too much rain and wind here in the south. The north of the UK has been cooler and wetter and further thunder and hail have occurred in north and west Scotland - it must be one of their most thundery months on record.

CET for December was 5.6*C (+0.8*C) up to the 20th and the EWR was 51mm up to the 19th, which is 53% of the monthly average.

No white Christmas is forecast for the UK this year but the models are showing some worrying developments for the 27th onwards with a very deep low possibly crossing the country giving a stormy spell just as everyone will be returning home from the festivities. It will also have some cold air on its north side which could mean some snow for more northern parts. However, that is still 5 days away so a lot can change, but the models have been consistent for the last couple of days on this scenario.

[Simon Culling]

The models have firmed up on the potential for a storm over the coming weekend but have downgraded it a bit. However, the 1200GMT chart for Friday (26th) shows a high of 1038mb over N France which is replaced by a low of 982mb over the Lincolnshire coast 24 hours later. For Milton Keynes the 24 hour pressure drop is from 1032mb to 992mb - so around 40mb. It will an interesting day, but the Met Office is not forecasting anything severe. After that, quite a few solutions see the low move more to the SE introducing a cold easterly from Scandinavia. The models often show this sort of flip flopping in winter so by tomorrow a completely different scenario will appear!

[Simon Culling]

The 'storm' did not develop quite as predicted and in fact moved across the Midlands as a smaller but still deepening low (from 1010mb to 995mb). It provided rain but not much in the way of wind and gave 10-20cm of wet snow on its northern side. We have had three cold, sunny and frosty days to follow with the lowest temperatures of the year being recorded in three countries this morning - Monday 29th December. The mercury fell to -8.8*C at Katesbridge in Northern Ireland, -7.6*C at Benson (England) and -6.7*C at Pembrey Sands (Wales). The lowest temperature of the year (-9.0*C) was recorded on the 27th December at Cromdale in the Scottish Highlands.

The CET for December up to the 28th was 5.8*C (+1.1*C) ensuring that this has been the warmest year in this series dating back to 1659 however cold the last 3 days are. The EWR was 74mm up to the 27th, which is 77% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

Happy New Year to all readers. The rather unsettled weather has continued through the New Year period with the 1st being a mild and blustery day. It was evidently the warmest New Year's Day for 99 years, although I am not sure of the source of that gem. The temperature reached 15.1*C at Murlough (Co Down) and 15.0*C at both Bolumer (Northumberland) and Hawarden (Flintshire), but all of these places would have been affected by a foehn condition in SW winds. It was also rather wet in the north and west (especially on west facing slopes) with 50-75mm in places. Here in Milton Keynes it was cloudy and drizzly with a strong SW wind and up to 10*C in the afternoon - but the temperature did rise to 13*C in the evening as a weak cold front approached.

The final CET for December is still awaited, but the EWR for the month has been given as 76mm, or 80% of the monthly average.

[Nev]

Happy New Year to you also Simon. Appreciate all your detailed reports from the UK.

[Simon Culling]

Thank you for your kind comments Nev . We have been under the influence of high pressure this weekend which has curved up from Spain to be over N France this evening (Sun 4th) at 1038mb. It followed a shallow low which brought plenty of rain for Saturday and clearer conditions in the evening which resulted in a lot of freezing fog over England this morning.

Here in Milton Keynes it was foggy all day with a maximum visibility of about 200m. The rime did not melt until mid afternoon when the temperature finally lifted a little above freezing, although the slow rise has continued into the evening as we pick up a light southerly breeze - it is now 2*C at 11pm and the fog has lifted. Saturday was not much better with rain and drizzle all day and an afternoon max of just 4*C.

Looking forward, a more active jet is emerging from the States as they have another of those big air mass clashes and some quite deep depressions will be approaching the UK by Thurs/Fri. Still no sign of any snow or prolonged cold, although there is a bit of a SSW event trying to get underway.

[Simon Culling]

A strong storm system passed close to the north of Scotland overnight Thurs/Fri bringing storm force winds to the far NW and N of Scotland. The synoptic map (copyright The Met Office) shows quite a small but deep feature of 960mb just to the NW of Scotland contrasting with a high pressure system of 1047mb over Spain. The top gusts at Met Office sites were:

113mph at Stornoway (Hebridies)
110mph at Loch Glascarnoch (Highlands)
97mph at Altnaharra (Highlands)
93mph at Wick (Caithness)

These are all low level sites, but the station atop Cairngorm recorded a mean of 101mph and a gust to 140mph. The wind caused some disruption, but they seem to cope far better than us 'soft southerners'.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-h ... s-30726678

[Manukau heads obs]

did 2014 end up being the warmest on record?

[Nev]

Yes, according to the UK Met Office, 2014 was indeed the UK's warmest year on record (and 4th wettest) from records dating back to 1910.

It is also the warmest year on record in the Central England Temperature series, beating the previous record set in 2006 from records dating back to 1659...

Met Office Mean CET Annual Anomaly Chart - 1772-2014.gif

[Simon Culling]

Brian, Nev has answered your question!. The CET series goes back over 350 years but the pre-instrument figures (roughly before 1800) were estimated by Gordon Manley from contemporary records kept in journals and various instrumental records not considered standard by modern thought. However, they are a very good guide to the weather record of those earlier years.

The stormy weather has continued with another deep low passing to the north of Scotland overnight Fri/Sat (dropping from 964mb to 952mb as it did so) but giving the strongest winds this time to the Northern Isles. Highest gusts include 101mph at Lerwick Observatory, 87mph at Sullom Voe (Oil Terminal) and 83mph at Baltasound.

This type of weather will continue through next week with the depressions passing a little further to the north for a while, but the models are showing a storm much further south for Wednesday next week which poses a threat to England + Wales this time. One to watch.

The CET for January was 6.3*C (+2.8*C) up to the 9th and the EWR was 34mm up to the 8th which is 37% of the monthly average of 91mm.

[Simon Culling]

The depression duly passed just to the north of Scotland on Weds/Thurs at around 945mb but did not produce the havoc expected. It was wet and windy but worse followed as very cold westerly winds swept over the UK in its wake giving a lot of snow to Scotland and N Ireland. This air was unusually cold despite having crossed the Atlantic and that 1 or 2 degree difference meant snow rather than rain or sleet.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-30862374

It has remained cold since then but we have had quite a sunny weekend here in Milton Keynes after a light dusting of snow on Saturday morning. The week ahead looks to remain cold but with only a little sleet or snow in the middle of the week.

The CET for January up to the 17th was 6.0*C (+2.5*C) and the EWR was 72mm up to the 16th which is 79% of the monthly average. It will be colder and drier than average in the next week or so.

[Simon Culling]

We had the coldest nights of the winter last week - indeed these were the lowest temperatures for two years. They occurred in the usual cold spots in the Scottish Highlands over the 19th/20th January. Lowest values recorded were:

-13.7*C at Loch Glascarnoch
-12.5*C at Tulloch Bridge
-11.7*C at Braemar
-11.0*C at Aviemore.

There were also a few low maximums in the clear sunny weather with Loch Glascarnoch only reaching -5.6*C on the 19th.

[Simon Culling]

It was the turn of the south overnight 22nd/23rd January for a cold night with again the lowest temperatures for two years being recorded at many stations. Lowest readings at Met Office sites were:

-8.8*C at Upper Lambourn (Berkshire)
-8.7*C at RAF Benson (Oxon)
-7.9*C at RAF Odiham (Hampshire)
-7.5*C at South Farnborough (Hampshire)

It turned a bit milder over the weekend and into this week but we are being advised of yet another run of very cold westerly winds from tomorrow (Weds 28th Jan) turning more to the north by the weekend and bringing a little snow even to the south.

[Simon Culling]

It has been rather cold for the last few days with the west to north westerly flow persisting. This has brought showery snow to many parts, although the south has been spared the worst - this has been experienced in Northern Ireland, Cumbria, the Pennines and of course Scotland. Nothing exceptional though, just normal winter weather.

We have had a couple of dustings of snow here in Milton Keynes but it has soon melted. The colder weather is expected to last through the weekend and the coming week with a little more snow possible.

CET for January was 4.8*C (+1.0*C) up to the 30th and the EWR was 93mm up to the 29th, which is 102% of the monthly average.

[Simon Culling]

It has remained cold with a little snow at times in the last week. We had a 3cm covering of snow overnight Mon/Tues (2/3 Feb) here in Milton Keynes which made the roads rather slick but it has since melted. Despite this, it has not been a particularly remarkable winter spell and with a big high to the west of Eire today (1046mb, 3-400 miles to W of Eire at 1200GMT Sat) drawing down milder air form the NW we are in for a period of quiet and rather boring weather into the middle of the coming week with only a little sunshine to cheer us up!

CET for January ended up at 4.4*C (+0.6*C) and the EWR was 102mm (113% of the average).

CET for February was 1.6*C (-2.9*C) up to the 6th and the EWR was just 5mm up to the 5th (8% of the monthly average of 65mm).

[Simon Culling]

The high pressure has moved a little closer to the UK and at 0600GMT on Sunday (8th Feb) it was centred just 100 miles to the west of Eire at 1044mb. The highest pressure readings for the UK that I have seen are 1044.5mb at Belmullet NW Eire) and 1043.1mb at Capel Curig (NW Wales). Whilst not record breakers, we do not see surface pressures this high very often.

High pressure at this time of the year can give vastly different conditions over quite short distances. Northern England is only 140km wide (coast to coast) as it nears the Scottish borders and yesterday (Sat 7th) saw a foggy day at Carlisle on the west side with a maximum temperature of just 0.8*C, but a lovely sunny day on the east coast (on the other side of the Pennines) with maximums of 9.4*C at Leeming (N Yorks) and 8.8*C at Boulmer (Northumberland). This is despite the general flow being along the length of the mountains, i.e. from the north. Here, in Milton Keynes (in the middle of England) it was a cloudy day (low Sc sheet) and just 4*C at best.

[Simon Culling]

The cool dry weather continued for a while, but it has become a little milder and wetter in the last few days and the weekly forecast is for a continuation of the more unsettled conditions. The very cold weather over eastern parts of the USA has re-invigorated the jet stream and will also mean a more westerly flow so it will be colder this week with some wintry showers. Whilst it has been cooler than last winter, we have not seen any 'real' winter weather for the second year in a row.

CET for February was 3.7*C (on average) up to the 21st and the EWR was 32mm up to the 20th, which is 49% of the monthly average - this will be topped up further this week to near the average by the end of the month.

Thoughts now turn to spring.

[Simon Culling]

I have been away for the last couple of weeks but February remained fairly average for the last few days. The CET for the month came out at 4.0*C (+0.3*C) making it marginally cooler than January. The EWR was 60mm which is 91% of the average.

We had a decent amount of snow in La Plagne (French Alps) and it was quite cold at times on the mountain, but 3 decent sunny days to end the trip. I will post a few photos when I have downloaded them.

[Simon Culling]

It appears that the winter of 2014/15 was the sunniest since reliable sunshine records commenced in 1929, although I do not recall it as being particularly sunny.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releas ... -on-record

Lets hope that does not mean the reverse for the forthcoming summer!

[Simon Culling]

The winter of 2015/15 was fairly average temperature wise and a little wetter than normal (but with the normal big regional variations) but it was apparently the sunniest since records began in 1929. We did have quite a few days with a NW flow which is showery in the west and north but generally dry and clear here in the south and east. No real severe weather either.

Met Office summary gives further details.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ ... 015/winter

[Simon Culling]

As threatened I have uploaded a few photos from La Plagne ski resort from early March 2015. The weather was a bit variable but half the days were clear and sunny. One day was a bit breezy as the last photo shows - it was hard work going uphill into that little zephyr.