General January Weather

[RWood]

Given that NZ looks to be sliding to defeat at present, some rain might not be a bad thing at all.

Spoke to soon i think Rupert

Perhaps, if we don't lose another wicket soon ...

[RWood]

it was only a 'Farmers Rain Gauge"
but when you saw the damage from the flash flooding...trees ripped out of gullies,fences buried under metres of silt, whole hill sides slipped away, you could understand then how much rain fell in such a short time
I recorded 150mm in 1.5 hours ...but 5 minutes up the road it was even heavier (as evident by more numerous slips)

Fair comment but the intensity of the rain wouldn't be the only factor ... stability and steepness of the terrain would also play a part. I think the reading has to stay in the realms of "possible" for the meantime.

[Richard]

Either way,thats amazing amount of rain,the most ive recorded here was 43mm in 1h and i thought that was heavy.

Been a lot cooler here today with a rather pleasant 27deg max

[Manukau heads obs]

good info here about the pukekohe floods (and others)
http://www.nzextremerainfalls.com/
states there that pukekohe got the 160mm in just over 2 hours
I had only a 50mm rain gauge (Nylex (not a wedge type) and had to go out and check it and empty it numerous times...it was after that I investigated recorded the rain on a computer

[Richard]

Some interesting reading in that link Brian

[RWood]

good info here about the pukekohe floods (and others)
http://www.nzextremerainfalls.com/
states there that pukekohe got the 160mm in just over 2 hours
I had only a 50mm rain gauge (Nylex (not a wedge type) and had to go out and check it and empty it numerous times...it was after that I investigated recorded the rain on a computer

Yes, a good record there. For the event around 24 February 1971 (New Plymouth's record flood) they don't mention the huge 2-day fall Stratford Mountain House, at the time a NZ record (over 800mm).

[Manukau heads obs]

I remember the KeriKeri floods and the old Kent house

[treetop]

Metservice has the low well east of Northland on Friday now and generally light winds for us. Despite warm upper temps there will be lots of moisture around from Tuesday and temps may reach 30 in western Waikato. Going to be an interesting week [after today]

[spwill]

There will be some high humidex readings over the North Island this week.

[NZstorm]

Isolated thunder not out of the question for the central NI ranges Tuesday.

Looking like Thursday will see a freash humid easterly over Auckland with some showers.

[Tornado Tim]

Models throwing the possibility of a sharp cold upper trough early next week!

If that forecast comes true, we will have T-storms galore!

[Nev]

Just reading this NZ Hearld story quoting some of the weekend's high temps (presumably from MS?), half of which are too low.

It says that on Saturday Pukaki Aero claimed the top hotspot with 33.4C (should be 34.6C), also that Christchurch hit 28.1C (Aero 29.1C) and Hamilton 26C (Aero 26.6C).

And for Sunday it says Blenheim recorded 30.9C (Aero 32.6C) and Gisborne 30.4C (Aero 30.8C).

Seems a bit sloppy!

[spwill]

I see Tauranga is currently on 29C, dewpoint 18C, SE Queensland type warmth.

Fine/cloudy spells here 25C/dp 17C

[Dean.]

Over xmas we had 30 degree temps with dewpoints 24 on the Gold Coast,tropical figures.

Another cool overcast drizzly Canterbury day,we have our fair share of these days down here.

[spwill]

Over xmas we had 30 degree temps with dewpoints 24 on the Gold Coast,tropical figures.

Yes, our warm 18C dewpoint weather is more like their late October/ November weather.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Re, the above posting, there Nev, seems like sloppy reporting.
Surely, these temperatures should of been checked before publication.
Nice to have some drizzle here today, from a convergence moving over from the NE, smelt nice over our tan/brown pastures. 0.1mm in the gauge, nearly the heaviest rainfall we have had here so far this year
The weeds are growing but not the grass
Got our cattle eating willow and the horses on winter feed.
I can imagine horse food becoming more expensive?

[NZstorm]

The thunder risk for the North Island tomorrow looks restricted to the eastern ranges and is looking low. The chance of showers occuring is higher though.

[iomkiwi]

I remember the KeriKeri floods and the old Kent house

So do I
Was living between the bridges that got washed out, only a couple of hundred metres up the hill from where the houses got washed away, one of the houses was intact as it went out into the inlet with the owner on the roof, he had plenty of boats to choose from to find something a bit more seaworthy.

Lots of memories/images from that time that I will never forget.

[treetop]

Thursday and Friday looking better,not much shear either at the mo. May get 2/3 days of surface convective toughs moving NW through the Waikato. I remember 5 days in a row 3 years ago with over 50,000 strikes a day. Well something to hope for anyway, gettin frustrated now !

[melja]

Just looking round my area(Rangiora) and many willows, poplars, and other trees are dropping there leaves like crazy, went for a run up the Ashely river last night and its like were well into autumn with all the trees yellow or almost bare.
Not one drop of moisture here yesterday or over night.
I see Pukaki(Twizel) has only had 7mm in the last 30days and 12days above 28C so a real baking down there.

[jamie]

Thursday and Friday looking better,not much shear either at the mo. May get 2/3 days of surface convective toughs moving NW through the Waikato. I remember 5 days in a row 3 years ago with over 50,000 strikes a day. Well something to hope for anyway, gettin frustrated now !

Tim and I were commenting on that year whilst chasing recently. Would be great to have a similar setup.

[NZstorm]

Thursday and Friday looking better,not much shear either at the mo. May get 2/3 days of surface convective toughs moving NW through the Waikato. I remember 5 days in a row 3 years ago with over 50,000 strikes a day. Well something to hope for anyway, gettin frustrated now !

GFS is flip flopping a lot atm.
Convection will try and develop in the inland BOP this afternoon and a weak thunderstorm might just develop given the heat there.

GFS has no rain for Auckland for the next 7 days now.

[spwill]

Off camping in the Coromandel today, a drier outlook would be better for me.

Auckland airport showing 5.2mm in the last 22 days, the region could do with some rain now.

[Nev]

Not much change in this morn's T-storm Outlook for today…

MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 13 Jan 2015
Issued at: 8:35am Tuesday 13 Jan 2015

Daytime cloud buildups are expected to produce scattered afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms about the central and eastern North Island, and possibly inland Marlborough.

The main risk of thunderstorms is about inland parts of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay,also eastern Taupo and the Rotorua district, but a lower risk covers many other North Island areas from Coromandel Peninsula to Wairarapa, and also the Kaikoura Ranges, as indicated on the chart.

Any thunderstorms that develop will be slow moving, and therefore have the potential to produce localised heavy rain or downpours. Rainfall rates should mostly be in the 10-25mm/hr range, but there is a low risk of higher rainfall rates of 25-40m/hr in one or two places. Rainfall rates of this intensity can cause surface flooding and make driving conditions hazardous.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Jan 13.png

[mikestormchaser]

Looking at this weekend. sunday/monday looking interesting for us in Canterbury.
Last time i commented on a possible thunder/hail set up Early out it just backed right off.
Hopefully this time it stays consistent! the upper winds aloft for monday over canterbury are keen at 40 knts so if things were to stay that way, could be looking at a severe hail day