JTWC have upgraded the Coral Sea TD's chances of becoming a TC in the next 24 hours to medium, while RSMC Nadi have upgraded it to a high risk for the next 24 to 48 hours…
ABPW10 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/292100Z-300600ZJAN2015//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8S
159.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO A BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291701Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW AS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/1947 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 160.4E
AT 291800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN LAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND
WRAPPING THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN LAST
12 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER PRIMARY BANDS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTEND TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
...
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Not surprisingly, JTWC issued a TC Formation Alert early this morning for the Coral Sea low now lying just NW of New Caledonia…
TPS21 PGTW 301030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1S 161.8E TO 18.7S 162.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2S 162.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
161.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 162.0, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300740Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS INCREASED CURVED-CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 300715Z WINDSAT IMAGE
SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOTS CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT-SOURCE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE DISTURBANCE SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED
CONVECTION AND PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311030Z.//
NNNN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/1330 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 161.3E
AT 301200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN LAST 24 HOURS WITH
PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTEND TO
500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP GIVING DT=2.5, PT AND MET AGREE.
THUS, YEILDING T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.
GOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
…
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JTWC has already declared our Coral Sea low a TC. I expect RSMC Nadi to follow suit shortly..
WTPS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
…
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 161.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTHWEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED CENTER. A 301853Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK,
RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY, THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH IS ENHANCED BY A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS (T2.5) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE AND TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR WHILE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 10P WILL SLOW AS IT
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, FORECAST BY ALL MODELS
TO BUILD INTO SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND HAS, THUS FAR, REMAINED ERRATIC.
IN GENERAL, THE DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
PEAK INTENSITY AND TREND, WHICH IS PRODUCING DIFFERENT FORECAST
TRACKS DESPITE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENTS. GFDN, COTC AND ECMWF
INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM (25 TO 35 KNOTS), WHICH IS TURNING SHARPLY
WESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. GFS AND CTCX INDICATE A
STRONGER SYSTEM (GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS) WITH FASTER TRACK SPEEDS,
AND RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL STEERING. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE (HWRF AND EGRR)
REFLECTS A MIX OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 10P IS
CONSOLIDATING AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, THEREFORE, A SOUTHWARD
TRACK IS MOST LIKELY UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER,
SLOW TRACK SPEEDS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310900Z AND 312100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 301051Z JAN 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 301030).//
NNNN
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Yes, TC's can certainly give models a run for their money.
TC Ola was named by RSMC Nadi around midday our time today…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/2300 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 161.6E
AT 302100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 03
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL OF CENTRE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN LAST 24 HOURS WITH
PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT PAST 24 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTEND TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP GIVING DT=3.0, PT AND MET AGREE.
THUS, YEILDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
...
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GFS currently has it continuing to move Sth in the central tasman...and just beat a building ridge and then the remains will get swept onto the NI
it will be all about timing...will the ridge beat it to the critical turning point or not...
STORM WARNING 039 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 31/0708 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA CENTRE 982HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8
SOUTH 161.7 EAST AT 310600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.8S 161.7E at 310600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 3 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS BY 010600 UTC.
...
WTPS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 161.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
…
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
310331Z GPM PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE REINFORCES THIS ASSESSMENT
SHOWING GOOD CURVED BANDING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO
45 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES. TC OLA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 10P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
STR THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE INTENTLY
TO THE WEST AS A BUILDING HIGH, CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA,
DEVELOPS AN ELONGATED RIDGE THAT FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TC OLA.
THIS WILL FORCE TO THE SYSTEM TO TURN SHARPLY TO THE WEST AND TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VWS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
DIVIDED ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN, WITH GFS BEING THE
OUTLIER THAT STILL PREDICTS A SLIGHT WESTWARD TURN, BUT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST CURVES BACK TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
RETRACTS TO THE WEST. ECMWF, HWRF, NAVGEM AND UKMO ARE IN AGREEMENT
OF A TURN AND SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE WEST SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE
LOCATION OF THE TURN IS STILL VARIED. WITH THIS INFORMATION, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN
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Ola has become very well organised overnight, with JTWC suggesting he will reach Cat 3 later today…
STORM WARNING 041 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 31/1905 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA CENTRE [977HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9
SOUTH 161.9 EAST AT 311800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.9S 161.9E AT 311800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 3 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
WTPS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
...
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 30
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 35 KNOTS TO 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. THIS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN A 311911Z
SSMIS IMAGE INDICATING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT ACCELERATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS)
FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. DESPITE LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, REMAINS ROBUST. TC
10P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 10P WILL SLOW,
WEAKEN AND TURN WESTWARD AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT BUT CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. HOWEVER, OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT LEADING TO IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
LATEST ECMWF TRACKER (31/12Z) INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO ITS
FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. TC 10P IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, ENTRAINMENT OF
COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR, AND COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN
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TC Ola upgraded to Cat 3 by RSMC Nadi this evening. And going by JTWC's reckoning, he may even get to Cat 4 tomorrow morning…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0751 UTC 2015 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 965HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4S 162.1E AT 010600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE
47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES
ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON AN
EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN, LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG GIVING DT=4.5, PT AND MT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAKENING TREND.
...
WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 162.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
…
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 162.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE BUT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A
010428Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, TC OLA HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
FROM 45 KTS TO AN ASSESSED INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. MODERATE (10 TO 20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THAT TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
BEYOND THIS, EXPECT A RIDGE TO FORM SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING TC
10P TO GAIN A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. DUE TO THE INCREASED VWS AND
COOLER SSTS, EXPECT TC OLA TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AND
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BIFURCATION
IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH GFS DRIVEN MODELS CONTINUING TO
FORCE TC 10P SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, WHICH MAY STILL BE A
POSSIBLE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WILL BE MILD BEFORE VWS AND
SSTS CAUSE IT TO DETERIORATE. FOR THE ABOVE REASONS, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND
020900Z.//
NNNN
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Wow, central pressure down to 955 hPa last night and still going strong...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/1346 UTC 2015 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 955HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.1S 162.1E AT 011200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
…
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LLCC EMBEDDED IN WHITE GIVING
DT=5.0, PT=4.5 AND MET=5.0.DT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS.
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/1953 UTC 2015 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 2 CENTRE [955HPA] WAS
LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 162.1E AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR
GMS EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH
AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
…
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LLCC EMBEDDED IN WHITE GIVING DT=5.0, PT
AND MET AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH A
WEAKENING TREND.
...
WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 21.5S 162.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
…
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 162.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM WEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE LLCC. A 011859Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CURVED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION. BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 70 KNOTS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) BASED ON THE SHEARED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. TC 10P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC
10P WILL SLOW, WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT BUT CONTINUES
TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF THE
WESTWARD TURN. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF COTC AND HWRF, ALL MODEL TRACKERS SHOW A DISSIPATION SCENARIO
WITH REMNANTS TRACKING EITHER WESTWARD OR NORTHWARD. NOTEWORTHY ARE
GFS AND ECMWF WHICH NOW BOTH INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION NEAR
28S LATITUDE THEN EQUATORWARD TRACK. THIS REMAINS THE LIKELIEST
SCENARIO CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENT, UNANIMOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO
INCREASING VWS, ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR, AND COOLER
SST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 WITH THE REMNANTS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD WITHIN THE SOTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 02/0746 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 973HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.4S 161.5E AT 020600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS VIS AND EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47
KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
OVERALL ORGANISATION POOR IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT HAS REDUCED IN AERIAL EXTEND. SYSTEM LIES
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG GIVING DT=4.0,
PT=3.5 AND MET=3.5 THUS, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH A
WEAKENING TREND.
...
WTPS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
...
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020411Z SSMI PASS.
THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 10P HAS CONTINUED TRACKING
GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
HAS PARTIALLY OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF THIS PERSISTENT SHEAR,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY. TC 10P IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE, INDUCING
STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MODELS, INCLUDING
HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, AND NAVGEM, DEPICT A POLEWARD TRACK AS THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS GROUPING AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN
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Major typo in RSMC Nadi's last Advisory, i.e. Ola should still have been at Cat 2.
Ola looks to have weakened considerably overnight...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 02/1325 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 974HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.2S 162.0E AT 021200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
…
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED PAST
12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. OLA IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LLCC EMBEDDED
IN OW GIVING DT=3.5, PT=3.5 AND MET=3.5, FT BASED ON MET THUS,
YIELDING T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND.
STORM WARNING 004 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 02/1306 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA CENTRE 974HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2
SOUTH 162.0 EAST AT 021200 UTC.
...
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Ola now encountering fairly strong shear, but good poleward outflow is sustaining convection…
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 02/2000 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 981HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.8S 161.5E AT 021800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
…
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
IS DISPLACES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. OLA IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR
PATTERN WITH LESS THAN 0.5 DEGREE FROM STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
YIELDING DT=3.0, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.5, FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITH A FURTHER
WEAKENING.
...
WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 25.6S 162.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
...
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND
REMAINS PARTIALLY OFFSET FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A NOTCH FEATURE ON A 021526Z 37
GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY FIXES AND REFLECTS THE
WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
(20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, AN EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND
SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, HOWEVER, A BUILDING - ALBEIT LOWER LEVEL -
REFLECTION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL DEFLECT A SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED TC 10P SOUTHWESTWARD. TC OLA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING VWS. AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED. GFDN AND JGSM PROJECT A DRASTIC WESTWARD
TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM IN ANTICIPATION OF RAPID WEAKENING. THE REST
OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO PROJECT THE VORTEX POLEWARD AND
RECURVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24 TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTACT AND ROBUST CYCLONE. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, GENERALLY WESTWARD
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS AN EARLIER DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN
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it has defied some of the models so far...
the tail is looking likely to bring rain for the upper NI if the remains of the low stays where it is (and only slowly unwinds) and not recurve away and disentegrate
Yep, quite a degree of future uncertainty in JTWC's comments…
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED. GFDN AND JGSM PROJECT A DRASTIC WESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM IN ANTICIPATION OF RAPID WEAKENING. THE REST OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO PROJECT THE VORTEX POLEWARD AND RECURVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24 TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTACT AND ROBUST CYCLONE.
I have seen a TC suddenly disentegrate and the remains move quickly into australia..in this very type of situation..when the SE flow from a new high turns up...
but if this TC can hold onto some strength and keep drifting south then its remains are going to get caught up in the westerly pattern in the tasman and get transported onto the upper NI...
TC Ola downgraded to Cat 1 at about 1pm today according to MetService…
NZ MetService (TCWC Wellington)
Issued at 2:02pm Tuesday 3 Feb 2015
TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING 027
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone OLA [987hPa] centre was located near 26.4 South 161.9 East at 030000 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 26.4S 161.9E at 030000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving south 5 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre easing to 40 knots by 031200 UTC with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 45 nautical miles of centre in the southern semicircle with high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in the southern semicircle and within 45 nautical miles of centre in the northern semicircle.
Forecast position near 27.4S 161.9E at 031200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 021.
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