Tropical Cyclone Lam - Gulf of Carpentaria

[Willoughby]

Tropical low 09U is set to rise to cyclone strength shortly and deepen rapidly due to low vertical wind shear and high SSTs (31C+) in the gulf. A lot of model variability but the EC solution is looking the most 'right fit' at the moment with a SSW direction towards near Borroloola, NT.

IDD65001[1].png

TCWC Darwin:

Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  16/1800: 11.1S 140.1E:     035 [070]:  035  [065]:  995
+12:  17/0000: 11.2S 139.8E:     050 [090]:  040  [075]:  993
+18:  17/0600: 11.0S 139.7E:     060 [115]:  040  [075]:  992
+24:  17/1200: 10.8S 139.5E:     075 [135]:  045  [085]:  989
+36:  18/0000: 11.0S 138.8E:     095 [175]:  055  [100]:  983
+48:  18/1200: 11.2S 138.6E:     115 [210]:  065  [120]:  975
+60:  19/0000: 11.8S 138.3E:     130 [245]:  080  [150]:  963
+72:  19/1200: 12.4S 138.2E:     150 [280]:  090  [165]:  953
+96:  20/1200: 14.5S 137.1E:     195 [365]:  100  [185]:  945
+120: 21/1200: 16.6S 134.9E:     285 [525]:  050  [095]:  987

REMARKS:
In the last few hours deep convection has become more organised with good
curvature and a CDO type pattern evident on recent infrared satellite imagery.
Current location is based on radar and the 16/0955Z SSMIS pass, suggesting the
low level centre is located just east of the mid level circulation. A curved
band pattern with an average of 0.7 in the last 3 hours yields DT3.0, while PAT
and MET are at held at 2.5. FT based on MET. The low is expected to continue to
strengthen overnight and is likely to develop into a tropical cylcone in the
next few hours.

The tropical low is expected to be slow moving in the short term as the main
steering influences of the ridge to the south and the developing monsoon to the
north are finely balanced. In the longer term, weakening of the ridge to the
south and interactions with an upper trough should yield a slow southerly
movement. Significant variation in NWP output from run to run over the last
48-72 hours indicate uncertainty in the forecast track, though indications from
00Z model runs received thus far are that models are beginning to align. The
broadscale environment is favourable for intensification and the forecast track
incorporates development at the standard rate.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

100 knots!!

...And the JTWC:

WTPS21 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 11.7S 139.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 139.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S
142.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTH
OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS STARTED TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME MORE DEFINED. A 160038Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS ALSO
REVEALED THE CONSOLIDATING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE LLCC HAS
INCREASED IN DEFINITION WHILE BANDING HAS IMPROVED. A 160036Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED INCREASED WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING ALONG
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS A POINT SOURCE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE LLCC WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170600Z.//
NNNN

[Nev]

Wow! Yes, I've had one eye on this TD over the last week, but wasn't expecting a potential Cat 4.

Here's a couple of sat-pics from last night and this morn...

[Nev]

Tropical Cyclone Lam was named by the BoM this morn…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1954 UTC 16/02/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lam
…
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  17/0000: 11.6S 139.5E:     040 [080]:  045  [085]:  989
+12:  17/0600: 11.5S 139.3E:     055 [100]:  050  [095]:  986
+18:  17/1200: 11.4S 139.1E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  986
+24:  17/1800: 11.5S 138.8E:     080 [145]:  055  [100]:  983
+36:  18/0600: 11.7S 138.3E:     100 [185]:  070  [130]:  971
+48:  18/1800: 12.2S 138.0E:     120 [220]:  080  [150]:  963
+60:  19/0600: 12.8S 137.6E:     140 [255]:  090  [165]:  954
+72:  19/1800: 13.6S 137.3E:     155 [290]:  100  [185]:  944
+96:  20/1800: 15.9S 135.2E:     200 [370]:  080  [150]:  965
+120: 21/1800: 18.2S 132.3E:     290 [535]:  025  [045]: 1004

REMARKS:
Position based on an extrapolation of the 15:26Z RapidScat and the merged Gove
and Weipa radars. Past movement has been slowly towards the southwest.

Intensity is set at 40kn [10 min] based on RapidScat image indicating an area of
gales to the north and south of the system [although there are a couple of non
rain affected winds to 45kn].

The LLCC has become covered in a cold cloud shield making a DT difficult to
assign. A shear pattern yields at DT of 3.5 with the LLCC into the strong
gradient. MET is 2.5 to 3.0 based on a D to D+ trend. PAT is 3.0. FT and CI is
based on PAT. This is broadly consistent with NESDIS ADT at CI 3.3.

The tropical low is expected to move slowly west in the short term, closely
balanced between the main steering influences of the ridge to the south and the
developing monsoon to the north. In the longer term, weakening of the ridge to
the south and interactions with an upper trough should yield a slow southerly
movement.

NWP output is beginning to favour a more westerly track as well, however there
still remains uncertainty. The broadscale environment is favourable for
intensification and the system is forecaster to development at the standard rate
until landfall.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Nev]

Hmm... JTWC have Lam making landfall a little further north than the BoM…

WTPS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160551FEB2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.3S 139.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
...
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 139.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
THE VWS IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD
ALONG THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE
TC 12P TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR GOVE AIRPORT
BEFORE DRAGGING INTO THE AUSTRALIAN NORTHERN TERRITORY. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WILL PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS BY LANDFALL. TC LAM WILL
DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 72 DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, ALL FAVOR A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR TAU 48. IN VIEW OF THE VERY SLOW INITIAL
STORM MOTION AND THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE, THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z AND 172100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A
(WTPS21 PGTW 160600).//
NNNN

[Willoughby]

Cat 2 on latest update:

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 10:57 am CST on Tuesday 17 February 2015
Headline:
Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Lam remains slow moving in the northern Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Elcho Island to Cape Shield.

Watch Zone
Maningrida to Elcho Island and Cape Shield to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Lam at 9:30 am CST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.6 degrees South 139.4 degrees East, estimated to be 290 kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy and 415 kilometres northeast of Alyangula.

Movement: west at 7 kilometres per hour.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Elcho Island and Cape Shield early on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts greater than 170 kilometers per hour may develop between Elcho Island and Cape Shield later on Wednesday if the cyclone takes a more westward track.

GALES may extend west to Maningrida and south to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt during Wednesday or Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause flooding of low-lying areas in the northeast Top End from later today.

Marine Wind Warning Summary for the Northern Territory
Issued at 10:00 am CST on Tuesday 17 February 2015
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 18 February 2015.

Wind Warnings for Tuesday 17 February
Storm Force Wind Warning for the following area:
Gove Peninsula Coast

Gale Warning for the following area:
Roper Groote Coast

Strong Wind Warning for the following area:
Arafura Coast

Wind Warnings for Wednesday 18 February
Hurricane Force Wind Warning for the following areas:
Gove Peninsula Coast and Roper Groote Coast

Storm Force Wind Warning for the following area:
Arafura Coast

[Nev]

BoM now also have Lam making landfall further north…

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0741 UTC 17/02/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lam
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.6S
Longitude: 138.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
...
REMARKS:
Position based on 17/05:32Z MTSAT imagery assisted by 17/0336Z AMSR2 pass and
Gove Airport radar. Past movement has been slowly towards the west.

The structure of Tropical Cyclone Lam has remained good through the day, with a
ragged eye feature visible at 17/0130Z. Deep convection has eased slightly in
the last few hours, but is expected to reintensify overnight. DT has been
difficult to assign as cloud features have become less well defined, ranging
from 3.0 based on a 0.6 wrap in visible imagery to 4.0 based on a Dark Grey
embedded centre in the infrared imagery. MET=3.5 based on standard development,
while PAT gives 3.5-4.0. FT=3.5 based on MET and PAT, while CI is held at 4.0.

Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to continue moving slowly west in the short
term, closely balanced between the main steering influences of the ridge to the
south and the developing monsoon to the north. After approximately 36 hours,
Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to turn to the SSW due to a weakening of the
ridge to the south and interactions with an upper trough.

NWP output is remaining broadly consistent from run to run, with good agreement
on the timing of the turn to the SSW between models. There still remains
significant variation between models in the speed of the initial westward
movement. Intensity in the longer term largely depends on the location of
landfall.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
...

[Nev]

JTWC still going for landfall a little further west than BoM. Regardless, this could be one of strongest TC's to hit the region for some time. It also coincides with one of the highest king-tides of the year…

WTPS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 11.3S 137.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
...
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 137.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 411 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS TOTALLY
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM GOVE AIRPORT,
AUSTRALIA WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RECEDE
WESTWARD, ALLOWING TC 12P TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKE LANDFALL JUST
WEST OF GOVE AIRPORT THEN DRAG ACROSS THE AUSTRALIAN NORTHERN
TERRITORY. TC LAM WILL PEAK AT 85 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEN
GRADUALLY ERODE INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1935 UTC 17/02/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lam
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.4S
Longitude: 138.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [286 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  18/0000: 11.4S 137.5E:     030 [060]:  065  [120]:  974
+12:  18/0600: 11.4S 137.2E:     045 [080]:  070  [130]:  969
+18:  18/1200: 11.3S 136.8E:     055 [105]:  075  [140]:  965
+24:  18/1800: 11.4S 136.7E:     070 [130]:  080  [150]:  960
+36:  19/0600: 11.9S 136.5E:     090 [165]:  090  [165]:  951
+48:  19/1800: 12.7S 136.2E:     110 [200]:  060  [110]:  978
+60:  20/0600: 13.8S 135.6E:     130 [235]:  040  [075]:  992
+72:  20/1800: 14.9S 134.7E:     145 [270]:  025  [045]: 1000
+96:  21/1800: 17.4S 131.5E:     190 [355]:  015  [030]: 1004
+120: 22/1800: 19.6S 128.2E:     280 [515]:  015  [030]: 1007

REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Lam is continuing to move in a westwards direction under the
influence of a mid-level ridge situated across central Australia. The system
should continue moving in this direction towards the northeast Top End before
developing a south-southwesterly track during Thursday due to a weakening of the
mid-level ridge and interactions with an upper trough across southern Australia.

The current intensity of tropical cyclone Lam remains at a category 2, but the
system is expected to intensify into Wednesday. Easterly wind shear is expected
to decrease during Wednesday, in combination with warm sea surface temperatures
and the potential development of two outflow channels, this may lead to a period
of rapid intensification.

Dvorak analysis was based on an embedded centre pattern with a colder than white
surrounding grey shade, giving a DT of 5.0. MET and PAT were 3.5. FT was based
on MET as DT was not completely clear. CI was maintained at 4.0. The position
was determined using Gove Airport radar and is considered good to fair.

Computer model guidance appear to be fairly consistent in having a westwards
track during Wednesday before developing more of a south-southwesterly track
during Thursday.

[Willoughby]

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.j ... 86&list=ob

Cape Wessel highest gust so far: 170 km/h (92 knots) at 11.35am.

[Nev]

TC Lam also upgraded to Cat 3 earlier this arvo...

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0014 UTC 18/02/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lam
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.2S
Longitude: 137.2E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [286 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 977 hPa
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  18/0600: 11.1S 136.8E:     030 [060]:  070  [130]:  969
+12:  18/1200: 11.1S 136.5E:     045 [080]:  075  [140]:  965
+18:  18/1800: 11.2S 136.3E:     055 [105]:  080  [150]:  960
+24:  19/0000: 11.4S 136.2E:     070 [130]:  085  [155]:  956
+36:  19/1200: 12.1S 135.9E:     090 [165]:  090  [165]:  953
+48:  20/0000: 13.0S 135.5E:     110 [200]:  050  [095]:  985
+60:  20/1200: 14.1S 134.8E:     130 [235]:  030  [060]:  996
+72:  21/0000: 15.3S 133.6E:     145 [270]:  020  [035]: 1002
+96:  22/0000: 17.7S 130.3E:     190 [355]:  015  [030]: 1005
+120: 23/0000: 19.9S 126.8E:     280 [515]:  015  [030]: 1007

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Lam is continuing to move steadily to the west northwest under
the influence of a mid-level ridge situated across central Australia. The system
should continue moving in this direction towards the Wessel Islands today and
there is good agreement between NWP with this motion. From later tonight, TC Lam
is expected to take a southwest due to a weakening of the mid-level ridge and
interactions with an upper trough across southern Australia. Again, there is
fair agreement between NWP with this scenario, although the exact timing of the
turn is still a little uncertain. As such, TC Lam is expected to make landfall
along the NE Arnhem coastline during Thursday, before continuing to move inland
over the eastern Top End.

TC Lam has shown signs of improvement in its structure on recent radar and
microwave images suggesting that some intentification is occurring. Maximum
winds are set at 60kt [10-min] but are likely to intensify further, despite some
easterly shear that is currently over the system. In combination with warm sea
surface temperatures and the potential development of two outflow channels, this
may lead to a period
of rapid intensification.

Cape Wessel automatic weather station has reporting gales this morning and more
recently begun reporting storm force winds with the inner core moving over the
area.

Dvorak analysis is based on an embedded centre pattern with a colder than white
surrounding grey shade, giving a DT of 5.0. MET and PAT were 4.0. FT was based
on MET as DT was not completely clear.

[Willoughby]

Strong supercells around here today on the periphery of the cyclone.

Radar / reflectivity: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... 5-02-18-15
Radar / doppler: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... 5-02-18-15 (check out the couplet east of the Tiwi Islands late)

12Z sounding - Oklahoma like!

18022015_12__-12.4239_130.8925___.png

Will try and get pics up soon.

[Nev]

Wonder just how far west TC Lam will end up making landfall…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1237 UTC 18/02/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 136.4E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [284 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 971 hPa
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  18/1800: 11.0S 136.3E:     020 [040]:  065  [120]:  971
+12:  19/0000: 11.1S 136.0E:     035 [065]:  070  [130]:  969
+18:  19/0600: 11.2S 135.9E:     045 [085]:  075  [140]:  965
+24:  19/1200: 11.5S 135.7E:     060 [110]:  080  [150]:  960
+36:  20/0000: 12.2S 135.3E:     080 [145]:  090  [165]:  952
+48:  20/1200: 13.3S 134.7E:     100 [180]:  060  [110]:  978
+60:  21/0000: 14.5S 133.9E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  997
+72:  21/1200: 15.8S 132.5E:     135 [255]:  020  [035]: 1002
+96:  22/1200: 17.8S 129.2E:     180 [335]:  015  [030]: 1005
+120: 23/1200:  

: : :
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Lam has continued to slowly move westwards under the
influence of a mid-level ridge extending across Western Australia. Cape Wessel
AWS earlier recorded a 92 knot wind gust in the western eye wall and has more
recently recorded a wind gust of 57 knots in the eastern eye wall. The lowest
pressure recorded at Cape Wessel was 969.9hPa at 0732UTC. The position of the
centre is good based on the Gove Airport radar. Recent microwave passes continue
to suggest that the system is still slightly tilted towards the west with
height, however a partial eyewall and spiral bands are evident on Gove radar.

The low level centre is embedded in cold overcast cloud with overshooting tops
near the centre. Dvorak analysis was based on embedded centre pattern with a
white or colder surrounding grey shade, giving a DT 5.0. MET and PAT were both
4.0. CI was maintained at 4.5. The system is now only developing at a slow rate
due to the easterly shear that is evident on the latest satellite images.

The cyclone is forecast to continue moving slowly toward the west tonight before
adopting a track towards the south-southwest during Thursday. There is good
agreement between NWP models on the turn as the mid-level ridge weakens and an
upper trough amplifies across southern Australia. The intensity forecast is
based on a slight to standard development rate as vertical wind shear reduces
and the cyclone remains clear of land influences. The current policy forecasts
landfall early on Friday morning between Elcho Island and Milingimbi, with an
intensity of category 3 or 4. The intensity forecast assumes a more favourable
environment as improved outflow develops to the south associated with the upper
trough across southern Australia.
...

WTPS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 136.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
...
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 136.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE AIRPORT INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM KNES AND ADRM AS WELL
AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAPE WESSEL, WHICH WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 5 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 18/0430Z. CAPE WESSEL
REPORTED PEAK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 66 KNOTS (10-MINUTE
AVERAGE) WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 92 KNOTS FROM 18/0200Z TO 0214Z. A
172352Z TRMM IMAGE SUPPORTS PEAK ORGANIZATION DURING THE PERIOD FROM
18/00Z TO 18/03Z. SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND AS THE SYSTEM PASSED OVER THE ISLANDS NORTH OF GOVE AIRPORT;
HOWEVER, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD THE
COAST OF AUSTRALIA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). AFTER LANDFALL AT TAU 36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND RE-ALIGN, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 12P TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC LAM WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.
...

[Manukau heads obs]

the models have not done very well this year with forecasting future track movement of TC's

Will try and get pics up soon.

I saw them on FB
(would be great to have a NZ weather forum FB page?)

[Nev]

Hasn't quite got to Cat 4, but a formidable beast nevertheless…

Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0333 UTC 19/02/2015

Headline:

Gales expected to develop at Elcho Island within the next 6 hours.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Goulburn Island to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy, Groote Eylandt and adjacent inland areas to Bulman.

Watch zone: Numbulwar to Port Roper and adjacent inland areas.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 12:30 pm CST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 11.6 degrees South, 135.8 degrees East , 55 kilometres north northeast of Elcho Island and 130 kilometres west northwest of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: southwest at 8 kilometres per hour .

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is continuing to track southwest, parallel to the Wessel Islands and is expected to make landfall on the mainland coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak overnight Thursday or Friday morning. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is then expected to weaken during Friday as it moves inland over Arnhem Land.

Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts greater than 170 kilometres per hour should continue over the Wessel Islands today and are expected to extend onto the mainland coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 220 kilometres per hour may occur near the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak overnight Thursday to Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop about the mainland coast between Elcho Island and Gapuwiyak Thursday afternoon or evening before possibly extending west to Milingimbi and adjacent inland areas from Friday morning.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres are expected to devleop in coastal areas near Elcho Island during the next 6 hours and extend further east to Nhulunbuy and west to Milingimbi and adjacent inland areas later today and overnight. GALES may also extend as far west as Goulburn Island and inland to Bulman during Friday as the cyclone moves inland. GALES may extend further east to Groote Eylandt and inland areas including Numbulwar and Port Roper later on Friday depending on the track the cyclone takes.

Coastal residents between Milingimbi and Nhulunbuy, including Elcho Island, are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast on Thursday night and into Friday. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN may cause flooding of low-lying areas in the northeast Top End on Thursday and Friday.

Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents on Elcho Island and Milingimbi to TAKE SHELTER NOW. CONDITIONS ARE SHORTLY EXPECTED TO REACH A DANGEROUS LEVEL.

DO NOT drive or move about outside, you will be advised by the Territory Controller when it is safe to do so.

The Territory Controller advises residents in Gapuwiyak and Ramingining that now is the time to make final preparations to shelter. You SHOULD PROCEED to your identified shelter.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Nhulunbuy that shelters remain open if you DO NOT have accomodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation. You should decide which public emergency shelter to use and MAY PROCEED to that shelter. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready to take with you.

Communities under Watch are advised that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

REPEATING: CONDITIONS AT ELCHO ISLAND AND MILINGIMBI WILL SOON BE AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL, TAKE SHELTER NOW.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0103 UTC 19/02/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.3S
Longitude: 136.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [237 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
…
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure

Code: Select all

[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/0600: 11.6S 135.9E:     025 [050]:  080  [150]:  961
+12:  19/1200: 11.9S 135.7E:     040 [070]:  085  [155]:  956
+18:  19/1800: 12.2S 135.5E:     050 [095]:  085  [155]:  957
+24:  20/0000: 12.6S 135.4E:     065 [120]:  055  [100]:  983
+36:  20/1200: 13.8S 135.0E:     085 [155]:  030  [060]:  997
+48:  21/0000: 15.1S 134.3E:     105 [190]:  030  [055]:  997
+60:  21/1200: 16.6S 133.2E:     125 [230]:  030  [055]:  997
+72:  22/0000: 17.7S 131.7E:     140 [265]:  030  [055]:  997
+96:  23/0000: 19.4S 128.3E:     185 [345]:  030  [055]:  998
+120: 24/0000: 20.6S 123.9E:     275 [505]:  025  [045]: 1001

REMARKS:
Since about 1530Z radar has indicated Severe TC Lam has taken a turn towards the
south. This motion has persisted through to the current time and suggestes that
the mid-level ridge extending across Western australia is beginning to break
down. Recent radar imagery has shown a consolidation and contraction of the eye
wall, with hints of an eyewall replacement cycle in the last few hours.

Intensification of the sytem has plateaued recently, based on analyses. The
pronounced cirrus fanning has become less apparent suggesting upper outflow has
lessened, while microwave imagery at 2220UTC suggests the northeasterly shear of
about 15 knots is also affecting the system, with some tilting evident.

Cape Wessel AWS earlier recorded a 92 knot wind gust in the western eye wall and
has more recently recorded a wind gust of 57 knots in the eastern eye wall. The
lowest pressure recorded at Cape Wessel was 969.9hPa at 0732UTC.

The position of the centre is good based on the Gove Airport radar. The 1542Z
amsr2

The low level centre is embedded in cold overcast cloud with overshooting tops
near the centre. Dvorak analysis was based on embedded centre pattern with a
white or colder surrounding grey shade, giving a DT 5.0. MET was 4.0 using an S
development trend while PAT remains at 4.5. FT biased towards PAT; CI=FT=4.5.
Current intensity is set at 75kn [10-min] which is close to SATCON's 83kn
[1-min].

The cyclone is forecast to continue moving towards the south-southwest during
Thursday as it intensifies. The current policy forecasts landfall around
midnight tonight between Gapuwiyak and Milingimbi, with an intensity of category
3 or 4.

WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 136.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
...
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 135.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE AIRPORT AND WARRUWI CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 FROM ALL
AGENCIES. A 181752Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
MAINTAINED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A VISIBLE
MICROWAVE EYE. EXPECT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TC 12P TO A PEAK OF
90 KNOTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. BEYOND TAU 24, TC
LAM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, ALTHOUGH SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM NATURE OF THE NORTHERN TANAMI DESERT AND
RELATIVELY FLAT NATURE OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORY. TC 12P WILL BE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z AND 192100Z.
...

[Nev]

Lam about to make landfall possibly as a Cat 4 with gusts to 230 km/h…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0704 UTC 19/02/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.6S
Longitude: 135.7E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [228 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 964 hPa
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/1200: 11.9S 135.4E:     025 [050]:  085  [155]:  958
+12:  19/1800: 12.2S 135.2E:     040 [070]:  090  [165]:  953
+18:  20/0000: 12.6S 135.0E:     050 [095]:  060  [110]:  980
+24:  20/0600: 13.2S 134.7E:     065 [120]:  045  [085]:  990
+36:  20/1800: 14.3S 134.2E:     085 [155]:  030  [055]:  999
+48:  21/0600: 15.7S 133.1E:     105 [190]:  030  [055]: 1000
+60:  21/1800: 17.1S 131.6E:     125 [230]:  030  [055]: 1000
+72:  22/0600: 18.1S 130.4E:     140 [265]:  030  [055]: 1000
+96:  23/0600: 20.0S 126.7E:     185 [345]:  030  [055]: 1000
+120: 24/0600: 21.4S 122.7E:     275 [505]:  025  [045]: 1002

REMARKS:
Since about 1530Z radar has indicated Severe TC Lam has taken a turn towards the
south. This motion has persisted through to the current time and suggestes that
the mid-level ridge extending across Western Australia is breaking down.

Recent radar imagery has shown a better defined, more concentric eye wall,
although microwave imagery at 0324UTC shows that the northeasterly shear is
still affecting the system, with some tilting evident.

Cape Wessel AWS recorded a 92 knot wind gust yesterday in the western eye wall
and a wind gust of 57 knots in the eastern eye wall. The lowest pressure
recorded at Cape Wessel was 969.9hPa at 19/0732UTC. Ngayawili AWS has recently
recorded gusts to 74 knots as the eyewall approaches.

The position of the centre is good based on the Gove Airport radar and the
recent microwave pass. Evidence of the eye is starting to show on the most
recent visible and EIR satellite images, with a DT or 5.0 achieved from a W
surround on EIR giving an eye number of 6.0 with an eye adjustment of -1.0 based
on W centre and CMG surround.

[Nev]

TC Lam making landfall about now…

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 56
Issued at 1:52 am CST on Friday 20 February 2015
[issued at 1622 UTC Thursday 19 February 2015]

Headline:
The centre of Cyclone Lam will cross the mainland coast between Milingimbi and Elcho Island during the next hour.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Goulburn Island to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy, Groote Eylandt and adjacent inland areas to Bulman

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 1:30 am CST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 185 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 260 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.2 degrees South 135.0 degrees East, estimated to be 60 kilometres west southwest of Galiwinku and 15 kilometres east southeast of Milingimbi.

Movement: southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of severe tropical cyclone Lam is continuing to track southwest and is now impacting the coast between Milingimbi and Elcho Island. The cyclone centre is expected to continue to slowly cross the coast this morning. Severe tropical cyclone Lam is then expected to weaken today as it moves inland over Arnhem Land.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts greater than 230 kilometres per hour should continue along the coast between Milingimbi and Elcho Island before extending over adjacent inland areas in the next few hours and further inland during this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour could possibly extend west towards Maningrida and adjacent inland areas over the next few hours.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres will continue to develop in coastal areas between Maningrida and Nhulunbuy in the next few hours before possibly extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas between Goulburn Island and Cape Shield during this morning. GALES should extend further inland to Bulman and possibly south to Groote Eylandt and Port Roper during today.

Coastal residents between Milingimbi and Nhulunbuy, including Elcho Island, are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

A STORM TIDE between Nhulunbuy and the Queensland border is expected around high tide today. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN may cause flooding of low-lying areas in the northeast Top End today.
...

[Nev]

TC Lam's centre crossed the mainland coast between Milingimbi and Elcho Island at around 2am CST (4:30am NZDT).