Tropical Cyclone Marcia - Coral Sea

[Nev]

The monsoon trough has become very active over the last week or so, spawning several TD's, including the one which crossed Cape York on Sunday into the GoC and expected to become a TC today.

Another potential TC, currently about 700 km ENE of Cairns and expected to curve back towards the south Qld coast in over the next few days, then probably into the south Tasman Sea by the weekend…

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:46 pm EST on Monday 16 February 2015
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 19 February 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

An active monsoon trough extends across Cape York Peninsula and the northern
Coral Sea. A tropical low is located in the Coral Sea along the monsoon trough
and well off the Queensland east coast. This low may develop in strength over
the coming days while initially moving further east, before taking on a more
southerly track from Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday Low
Wednesday Moderate
Thursday Moderate

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZFEB2015//
RMKS/
…
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
…
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.3S 152.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING WITH MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. A
152256Z ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALED TROUGHING ACROSS THE CORAL SEA
WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WIND FIELDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 152352Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LINEAR AND LIMITED IN DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSETTING DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Nev]

JTWC have now upgraded the Coral Sea low's chances of becoming a TC in the next 24 hours to medium…

ABPW10 PGTW 162130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/162130Z-170600ZFEB2015//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZFEB2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
…
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
...
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S
152.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 154.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS
FORMATIVE BANDS, ALBEIT STILL SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED, WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 161808Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS CAPTURES THE MAIN FEEDER ARCED ALONG THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. IN VIEW OF THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
…

[Nev]

JTWC have put out a TC Formation Alert for our Coral Sea low this evening, while BoM have increased its chances for tomorrow to moderate...

WTPS21 PGTW 170530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 14.7S 155.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170500Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 155.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
154.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 155.3E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENT IN A 162104Z SSMIS IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 162321Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATES A SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS WINDS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VWS WILL DECREASE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180530Z.//
NNNN

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Updated Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 3:55 pm EST on Tuesday 17 February 2015
for the period until midnight EST Friday 20 February 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

An active monsoon trough extends across Cape York Peninsula and the northern
Coral Sea. A tropical low is located in the Coral Sea along the monsoon trough
and well off the Queensland east coast. This low may develop in strength over
the coming days while initially moving further east, before taking on a more
southwesterly track from Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday Moderate
Thursday Moderate
Friday Moderate
...

[Nev]

BoM issued its first Advisory for the Coral Sea low this morn…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1904 UTC 17/02/2015
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 155.9E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [117 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  18/0000: 16.2S 155.9E:     065 [120]:  030  [055]:  997
+12:  18/0600: 17.1S 155.5E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]:  997
+18:  18/1200: 18.1S 154.8E:     075 [140]:  030  [055]:  997
+24:  18/1800: 19.1S 153.7E:     080 [150]:  030  [055]:  997
+36:  19/0600: 21.3S 151.9E:     090 [165]:  030  [055]:  997
+48:  19/1800: 23.3S 151.0E:     100 [185]:  040  [075]:  992
+60:  20/0600: 25.7S 151.3E:     140 [260]:  030  [055]:  998
+72:  20/1800: 28.0S 152.5E:     185 [345]:  030  [055]:  997
+96:  21/1800: 29.9S 154.4E:     230 [430]:            :     
+120: 22/1800: 33.9S 156.5E:     320 [590]:            :     

REMARKS:
Convection has increased significantly during the last 24 hours, with the system
showing a clear intensifying trend despite the presence of moderate to strong
easterly wind shear suggested by the 12UTC CIMSS winds.

Location of the LLCC has been difficult due to a dearth of proximal
observations. 12UTC ASCAT suggested a small area of gales in at least the
western quadrant. The system exhibits a uniform CDO on IR satellite imagery.
Applying the Central Cold Cover rule gives DT 2.5. MET and PAT agree, so final T
and CI are 2.5.

The system has been moving slowly east during the last 24 hours, however
influence from a mid-level ridge extending from the east should begin to steer
the system southwest during the next few hours, and this movement looks to be
maintained until landfall on the central Queensland coast during Thursday night
or Friday morning. NWP models suggest broadly that moderate NE'ly shear will
persist over the system during most of this period and intensification is
expected to be slow. There is a significant possibility that tropical cyclone
intensity may not be reached.

Regardless of whether the system developes into a tropical cyclone, the pressure
gradient between the low and a high in the Tasman Sea will produce a broad area
of gales and heavy rain which will have a significant impact on the southern
Queensland coast.

[Nev]

JTWC have already upgraded our Coral Sea low to a TC this arvo (based on 1-minute mean winds)…

WTPS32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170521FEB2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 155.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
...
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DISPLACED
WESTWARD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES INCLUDING A 172251Z GPM WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS, ALBEIT IN MODERATE (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE VWS, HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GLADSTONE, AUSTRALIA, SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT 45 KNOTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEN RAPIDLY ERODE INLAND, DISSIPATING JUST NORTH
OF BRISBANE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 170530).//
NNNN

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0141 UTC 18/02/2015
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 156.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [189 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
...
REMARKS:
Convection has increased significantly during the last 24 hours, although
curvature near the centre has not increased noticably. CIMSS winds and AMSU
suggest system is in an environment containing persistent easterly vertical
shear on the order of 20 knots, consistent with virtually all the deep
convection being confined to the western flank of the low.

More confident in centre fix using multiple MW passes and vis imagery depicting
a patially exposed LLCC. Dvorak analysis using curved band has not been
possible. Resorting to shear pattern with centre less than 0.5 degree from dense
overcast gives DT 3.0. MET and PAT are 2.5 [with reanalysis of minus 24 hr
imagery]. Given dubious nature of shear pattern with the developing stage of
system lifecycle, held final T and CI with the PAT at 2.5.

The system has curved onto a southerly track in the past 12 hours. The influence
from a mid-level ridge extending from the east should see the system continue to
curve around onto a southwesterly track during the next few hours, and this
general movement should be maintained up to landfall on the central Queensland
coast early Friday morning. NWP models suggest that moderate E/NE vertical shear
will persist over the system during most of this period and intensification is
expected to be slow. There is a significant possibility that tropical cyclone
intensity may not be reached.

However, regardless of whether the system developes into a tropical cyclone, the
pressure gradient between the low and a high in the Tasman Sea will produce a
broad area of gales and heavy rain which will have a significant impact on the
southern Queensland coast.

[Dean.]

JTWC have already upgraded our Coral Sea low to a TC this arvo (based on 1-minute mean winds)…

WTPS32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170521FEB2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 155.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
...
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 155.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DISPLACED
WESTWARD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES INCLUDING A 172251Z GPM WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS, ALBEIT IN MODERATE (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE VWS, HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GLADSTONE, AUSTRALIA, SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT 45 KNOTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEN RAPIDLY ERODE INLAND, DISSIPATING JUST NORTH
OF BRISBANE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 170530).//
NNNN

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0141 UTC 18/02/2015
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 156.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [189 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
...
REMARKS:
Convection has increased significantly during the last 24 hours, although
curvature near the centre has not increased noticably. CIMSS winds and AMSU
suggest system is in an environment containing persistent easterly vertical
shear on the order of 20 knots, consistent with virtually all the deep
convection being confined to the western flank of the low.

More confident in centre fix using multiple MW passes and vis imagery depicting
a patially exposed LLCC. Dvorak analysis using curved band has not been
possible. Resorting to shear pattern with centre less than 0.5 degree from dense
overcast gives DT 3.0. MET and PAT are 2.5 [with reanalysis of minus 24 hr
imagery]. Given dubious nature of shear pattern with the developing stage of
system lifecycle, held final T and CI with the PAT at 2.5.

The system has curved onto a southerly track in the past 12 hours. The influence
from a mid-level ridge extending from the east should see the system continue to
curve around onto a southwesterly track during the next few hours, and this
general movement should be maintained up to landfall on the central Queensland
coast early Friday morning. NWP models suggest that moderate E/NE vertical shear
will persist over the system during most of this period and intensification is
expected to be slow. There is a significant possibility that tropical cyclone
intensity may not be reached.

However, regardless of whether the system developes into a tropical cyclone, the
pressure gradient between the low and a high in the Tasman Sea will produce a
broad area of gales and heavy rain which will have a significant impact on the
southern Queensland coast.

Possibly swiping the South Island into next week

[Nev]

Seems BoM had another little rethink this evening (actually thought they may have given it TC status this morning going by last night's sat-pics )…

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0727 UTC 18/02/2015
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 155.3E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [220 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  18/1200: 17.8S 154.9E:     010 [020]:  030  [055]:     
+12:  18/1800: 18.9S 153.8E:     025 [045]:  035  [065]:  996
+18:  19/0000: 19.9S 152.9E:     035 [070]:  040  [075]:  992
+24:  19/0600: 20.8S 152.0E:     050 [090]:  045  [085]:  988
+36:  19/1800: 22.8S 150.6E:     070 [125]:  055  [100]:  980
+48:  20/0600: 25.0S 150.7E:     090 [165]:  035  [065]:  996
+60:  20/1800: 26.6S 151.0E:     110 [200]:  025  [045]:     
+72:  21/0600: 28.2S 152.6E:     125 [235]:  025  [045]:     
+96:  22/0600: 29.2S 154.4E:     170 [315]:  025  [045]:     
+120: 23/0600:             :              :            :    

REMARKS:
Convection has increased significantly during the last 24 hours, although
curvature near the centre has not increased noticably. CIMSS winds and AMSU
suggest system is in an environment containing persistent easterly vertical
shear on the order of 20 knots, consistent with virtually all the deep
convection being confined to the western flank of the low.

More confident in centre fix using multiple MW passes and vis imagery depicting
a patially exposed LLCC. Dvorak analysis using curved band has not been
possible. Resorting to shear pattern with centre less than 0.5 degree from dense
overcast gives DT 3.0. MET and PAT are 2.5 [with reanalysis of minus 24 hr
imagery]. Given dubious nature of shear pattern with the developing stage of
system lifecycle, held final T and CI with the PAT at 2.5.

The system has curved onto a southerly track in the past 12 hours. The influence
from a mid-level ridge extending from the east should see the system continue to
curve around onto a southwesterly track during the next few hours, and this
general movement should be maintained up to landfall on the central Queensland
coast early Friday morning. NWP models suggest that moderate E/NE vertical shear
will persist over the system during most of this period and intensification is
expected to be slow. There is a significant possibility that tropical cyclone
intensity may not be reached.

However, regardless of whether the system developes into a tropical cyclone, the
pressure gradient between the low and a high in the Tasman Sea will produce a
broad area of gales and heavy rain which will have a significant impact on the
southern Queensland coast.

[Nev]

TC Marcia was named by the BoM tonight…

[Nev]

Some updates from last night...

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1307 UTC 18/02/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Marcia
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.1S
Longitude: 154.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [214 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
...
REMARKS:
Convection has increased a little during the last 24 hours and has remained
vigorous over the western semi-circle through today, although curvature near the
centre has not increased noticably. CIMSS winds and AMSU suggest system is in an
environment with a weakening easterly vertical shear. This is consistent with
virtually all the deep convection being contained to the western flank of the
low up until about 12 hours ago, but recently convection is more over the LLCC.

Centre fix using multiple MW passes and persistence. Dvorak analysis using
curved band has not been possible. Resorting to shear pattern with centre less
than 0.5 degree from dense overcast gives DT 3.0. MET and PAT agree at 3.0;
given dubious nature of shear pattern with the developing stage of system
lifecycle, FT is based on PAT 3.0. Objective aids generally agree with this
assessment. The system was named as Tropical Cyclone Marcia based on the 09Z
analysis.

The system has curved onto a southwesterly track in the past 12 hours, under the
dominant steering influence of a subtropical ridge to the east. The latter
feature should remain the primary steering influence, and this should see Marcia
continue a general southwesterly track with little change in forward speed up to
landfall on the central Queensland coast early Friday morning. Deterministic and
ensemble NWP models are tightly clustered in agreement with this track scenario.
Models also suggest a gradual weakening of the E/NE vertical shear over the
system during most of this period, and with little change in ocean heat content
under the forecast track, this should allow the system to intensify at or just
below the standard rate up to landfall.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
…
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 154.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 180928Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A DEEP CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 13P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 36. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-CURVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 30 AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE AS
IT RE-CURVES OVER LAND DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION. THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER WATER
NEAR TAU 72 AND WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW WHILE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
...

[Manukau heads obs]

looking alot stronger this hour....does not look good for Queensland
will be interesting to see if it affects NZ down the track..

[Nev]

Yes, Marcia upgraded to Cat 2 just after midday our time.
Quite a compact TC with a nicely defined eye this arvo…

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0158 UTC 19/02/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Marcia
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.9S
Longitude: 152.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [230 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/0600: 20.7S 151.3E:     040 [080]:  050  [095]:  990
+12:  19/1200: 21.4S 150.8E:     055 [100]:  055  [100]:  987
+18:  19/1800: 22.3S 150.4E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  986
+24:  20/0000: 23.3S 150.2E:     080 [145]:  045  [085]:  992
+36:  20/1200: 25.2S 150.6E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]: 1002
+48:  21/0000: 27.2S 151.9E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]: 1001
+60:  21/1200: 28.9S 153.4E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]: 1000
+72:  22/0000: 29.6S 154.6E:     155 [290]:  030  [055]:  998
+96:  23/0000: 30.5S 156.1E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]:  998
+120: 24/0000: 33.4S 159.6E:     290 [535]:  030  [055]:  998

REMARKS:
The system has undergone a developing trend during the last 24 hours. CIMSS deep
layer shear shows only 5 to 10 knots of northeasterly shear over the system,
consistent with recent microwave passes showing only marginal displacement of
the centre between the low and mid levels.

The satellite signature has been largely CDO-like during the last 24 hours,
showing evidence of shear reducing with a more uniform distribution of the
temperature gradient around the deep convection compared with 24 hours ago.
Confidence of the LLCC position is high given recent microwave and visible
satellite pictures, and is located more than 1 degree under the deep convection.
DT is therefore 3.5. MET is 3.0, and PAT is 3.5. Final T 3.5.

Intensity is analysed at 50 knots 10 minute mean, based on Dvorak and supported
by 23Z ASCAT pass which shows a small area of 50 knot winds in the southeast
quadrant. Surface automatic weather station obs at Marion Reef reached 42 knots
at 2120Z. A TMI microwave pass at 2106Z depicted a partially complete eye wall
with approximately 0.8 wrap, and this is reflected in the 2332 MTSAT VIS image.

Confidence in the track forecast remains high with a strong steering influence
from the mid-level ridge to the east and upper trough to the west. NWP tracks
are generally tightly clustered around a landfall near Shoalwater Bay on the
central Queensland coast early on Friday morning local time. Expect the along
track shear to remain low to moderate prior to landfall, allowing
intensification at or just below the standard rate until then.

WTPS32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 152.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
...
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 151.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
GOOD DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 182241Z AMSU-B AND 182106Z TMI
IMAGE, COMBINED WITH THE RADAR LOOP FROM MACKAY, INDICATE THAT THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND TC
MARCIA IS TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE A MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED REMOTE DATA WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS DUE TO
CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 FROM PTGW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PROVES TC MARCIA IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TC 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH THE GREAT BARRIER REEF THROUGH TAU
24. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT DIVIDING RANGE BEYOND
TAU 12, EXPECT FAIRLY RAPID DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF TC MARCIA TO RE-EMERGE BEYOND THE
NEW ENGLAND RANGE AS A SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND
200300Z.

[Nev]

Update: Marcia now expected to make landfall as a Cat 3 tomorrow morning...
(Did I mention tomorrow's king-tide? ...)

Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0402 UTC 19/02/2015

Headline:

Marcia continues to intensify, category 3 now predicted at landfall.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Mackay to Double Island Point extending inland to Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, and Monto.

Watch zone: Adjacent inland areas between Bundaberg and Double Island Point, extending inland to include Mundubbera, Gayndah, and Murgon.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 1:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 20.3 degrees South, 151.4 degrees East , 320 kilometres north northeast of Yeppoon and 245 kilometres east northeast of Mackay .
Movement: southwest at 26 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marcia has been moving southwest towards the Queensland coast while intensifying. The cyclone is expected to maintain this general motion through to landfall on the eastern Queensland coast between St Lawrence and Gladstone early on Friday. It is now forecast to reach category 3 intensity by landfall.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Marcia, with gusts to 185 km/h, is expected to cross the coast between St Lawrence and Gladstone early on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between St Lawrence and Burnett Heads later tonight.

GALES are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point this evening, and extend inland to areas including Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, and Monto overnight and Friday morning.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced today and Friday with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide.

Coastal residents between St Lawrence and Double Island Point are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Dangerous surf is expected about exposed beaches south of Sandy Cape.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the coast between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay ahead of tropical cyclone Marcia crossing the coast. These thunderstorms may produce localised areas of destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 km/hr about coastal and island communities.

Heavy rainfall will develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point today, particularly over areas to the south of the system. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:

People between Mackay and Double Island Point should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property [using available daylight hours/before nightfall].
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage)

[Dean.]

Predicting a Cat 4 system now? , will be a worry if this system decides to hug the coast and not dismantle inland as some models predicts as it drifts south.Either way a whole lot of rain on the way for South Queensland.GFS still showing an ex tropical system approaching the S.I next week bringing some much needed rain to the south,be great if it stuck!

[Nev]

Yeah, the forecasters have certainly underestimated this little puppy…

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0700 UTC 19/02/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0700 UTC
Latitude: 20.6S
Longitude: 150.7E
Location Accuracy: within 5 nm [9 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
...
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/1300: 21.4S 150.2E:     050 [095]:  095  [180]:  945
+12:  19/1900: 22.3S 149.8E:     060 [110]:  090  [165]:  952
+18:  20/0100: 23.2S 149.7E:     060 [110]:  060  [105]:  981
+24:  20/0700: 24.2S 149.8E:     080 [145]:  040  [075]:  998
+36:  20/1900: 26.1S 150.7E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]: 1001
+48:  21/0700: 28.0S 152.2E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]: 1000
+60:  21/1900: 29.1S 153.5E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]:  999
+72:  22/0700: 29.4S 154.4E:     155 [290]:  030  [055]:  997
+96:  23/0700: 31.5S 156.6E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]:  999
+120: 24/0700: 35.0S 160.6E:     290 [535]:  030  [055]:  998

REMARKS:
Marcia has undergone a period of very rapid intensification during the last 6-8
hours. CIMSS winds show approximately 10 knots of E/NE deep layer shear over the
system.

The satellite signature has improved markedly today with an eye visible from
about 03Z. Confidence of the LLCC position is therefore high. The 0532Z MTSAT
EIR image exhibits an OW eye embedded in black with a white surrounding ring. DT
is therefore 6.0. Averaging the last 4 hours of images yields a DT of 5.5 to 6.
MET is 4.0, PAT is 4.5. Final T held to 4.5 by constraints.

Intensity is analysed at 85 knots 10 minute mean [T5.0], breaking Dvorak
constraints. Objective ADT guidance is judged to be lagging behind the rapid
intensification indicating max 1 minute means of 55 to 60 knots [74 knots from
SATCON]. Surface automatic weather station obs at Creal Reef [40km from the
system centre] is currently 62 knots mean.

Recent movement has continued to be WSW at approximately 10 knots. NWP models
predict a more SW or S/SW track from approximately 06Z onward. Not seeing any
evidence of this yet, although speed of movement has slowed in recent hours.
Forecast is still for this turn to occur and landfall to occur near St Lawrence
on the Queensland coast in the early hours of Friday morning. Given the
favourable environment and recent trend, will forecast further intensification
prior to landfall, with category 4 likely to be reached in the next few hours.

[tgsnoopy]

Gone Cat 4 now!
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

[David]

Now forecast for category 5 landfall!!

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Marcia, with gusts to 295 km/h, is expected to cross the coast between Mackay and Gladstone on Friday morning.

[Manukau heads obs]

the NZ media have no coverage
why?

[Nev]

Yep, Cat 5 later this evening - gusts to 295 km/h expected as she crosses the coast...

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 6:57 pm EST on Thursday 19 February 2015

Headline:

Severe tropical cyclone Marcia continues to intensify, category 5 now forecast for landfall.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone
Bowen to Double Island Point, extending inland to Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, Monto, Taroom, Mundubbera, and Murgon

Watch Zone
Numbulwar to Port Roper and adjacent inland areas

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 7:00 pm EST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 185 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 260 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 9 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South 150.5 degrees East, estimated to be 150 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and 285 kilometres north of Yeppoon.

Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Severe tropical cyclone Marcia, a category 4 cyclone, continues to intensify as it moves west-southwest towards the Queensland coast. The cyclone's movement has slowed in recent hours, and it is expected to turn more southwest during the next few hours and make landfall between Mackay and Gladstone early on Friday. It is now forecast to reach category 5 by landfall.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Marcia, with gusts to 295 km/h, is expected to cross the coast between Mackay and Gladstone on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Burnett Heads tonight.

GALES are now occurring about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point, and are expected to extend north to Bowen later this evening and inland to areas including Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, Monto, Mundubbera, Taroom, and Murgon overnight and Friday.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced today and Friday with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide.

Coastal residents between Mackay and Double Island Point are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Dangerous surf is expected about exposed beaches south of Sandy Cape.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the coast between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay ahead of tropical cyclone Marcia crossing the coast. These thunderstorms may produce localised areas of destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 km/hr about coastal and island communities.

Heavy rainfall will develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point tonight, particularly over areas to the south of the system. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:

People between Bowen and Double Island Point should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.

- Boats and outside property should be secured [using available daylight hours/before nightfall].

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

[Razor]

Plenty of media coverage now...this has gone septic really fast

[Nev]

TC Marcia just upgraded to Cat 5 and expected to make landfall around midday our time.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1812 UTC 19/02/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 21.6S
Longitude: 150.5E
Location Accuracy: within 5 nm [9 km]
Movement Towards: south [187 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
Central Pressure: 929 hPa
FORECAST DATA

Code: Select all

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  20/0000: 22.4S 150.5E:     015 [030]:  110  [205]:  928
+12:  20/0600: 23.3S 150.6E:     030 [055]:  070  [130]:  966
+18:  20/1200: 24.2S 150.9E:     040 [075]:  050  [090]:  983
+24:  20/1800: 25.2S 151.4E:     055 [100]:  035  [070]:  991
+36:  21/0600: 26.8S 152.9E:     075 [135]:  030  [055]:  997
+48:  21/1800: 27.9S 154.2E:     095 [170]:  030  [055]:  995
+60:  22/0600: 28.7S 155.2E:     110 [210]:  030  [055]:  995
+72:  22/1800: 29.0S 156.1E:     130 [245]:  030  [055]:  993
+96:  23/1800: 28.1S 157.7E:     175 [325]:  030  [055]:  994
+120: 24/1800: 27.7S 160.5E:     265 [490]:  030  [055]:  996

REMARKS:
Marcia underwent a period of very rapid intensification during Thursday. CIMSS
winds show approximately 15 knots of deep layer shear over the system.

The satellite signature improved markedly during the day with an eye becoming
visible from about 03Z, and it remains clear. Confidence of the LLCC position is
therefore high.

[Manukau heads obs]

still no main stream NZ media coverage...
no wait, NZHerald web site has it now.

[Manukau heads obs]

with it moving more south earlier
its going to exit into the tasman stronger...on its way to NZ

[tgsnoopy]

I'm far more worried about what it's doing right now. Staying close to the coast it might continue to pull in energy from the sea and stay stronger and for longer. Low possibility, but possible all the same.

[Manukau heads obs]

yup..Gladstone could be hit hard...

[Nev]

Marcie's landfall will be virtually at the same time as the strongest tide of the year peaks, so quite a big storm-surge expected.