Tropical Cyclone Pam - SW Pacific

[Manukau heads obs]

now named as TC Pam

[Nev]

Yes, TC Pam was named around 8pm NZDT going by the Nadi Gale Warning I initially posted last night, but subsequently replaced with their later more detailed Advisory.

Snippet for posterity…

GALE WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 09/0704 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.4
SOUTH 169.8 EAST AT 090600 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 8.4S 169.8E AT 090600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 100600 UTC. ...

And their comments from earlier this morn…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 09/1403 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 170.4E AT
091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL
MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO
300HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6
WRAP YEILDS DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREES. THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
...

[Nev]

Hmm… Allowing for the 1 minute to 10 minute mean-wind difference, JTWC's figures suggest Pam peaking at near Cat 5, or a mid Cat 4 when she's about 1150 km NE of NZ. If that holds true, I for one hope she stays east of NZ…

WTPS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 8.4S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
…
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 170.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM NORTHWEST OF
NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE
AND ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS - MOSTLY FROM
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY - THAT ARE FEEDING INTO A LARGE, CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A 091000Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS IS NOW TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC 17P
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND OUTFLOW
IMPROVES WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE
CYCLONE TRACKS SOUTHWARD. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY NEAR TAU 72 AS THE POLEWARD VENTILATION IS FURTHER
ENHANCED AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXP0SED TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES.
AFTER TAU 96, TC 17P WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR IS
WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM, HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
THE TRANSITION IN THE STEERING MECHANISM. IN VIEW OF THIS
DISCREPANCY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

[Manukau heads obs]

wow, she has grown heaps overnight in size
and the one in the coral sea is starting to take shape too

[Manukau heads obs]

GFS has it a bit closer again ...

[Nev]

Yes, whole track has moved a little further west in this morn's GFS 12z update…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 09/1955 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 170.4E AT
091800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS.
…
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND
TRYING TO WRAP AROUND SUPPOSE LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.75 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.0,
MET AND PAT AGREES. THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

[ScottyD]

It looks as though the forecast track has moved even further west.

[jamie]

where do you get the neat GFS runs as above.

Yea it certainly is drifting back west.

[Manukau heads obs]

I think Vanuatu needs to be worried
latest sat image to me shows its wobbled back west a bit..as it drifts slowly south

certainly growing in size hour by hour!

[Manukau heads obs]

M/S mention it now in severe weather outlook...prudent to do so
http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... er-outlook

[David]

where do you get the neat GFS runs as above.

Yea it certainly is drifting back west.

It's from an awesome site called Tropical Tidbits, which I found thanks to the charts posted by Nev

For estimated track maps, go here http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ and scroll down to 17P Pam.
They also have a cool models page http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[Nev]

Just ignore the 'Surface Pressure' on that site and stick to 'MSLP' (I suspect that's where those stupid pressures being quoted in the media originate from ).

TC Pam now at Cat 2…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 10/0145 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 170.4E AT
100000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.
…
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND
WRAPPING AROUND SUPPOSE LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT WITH CLOUD
TOPS COOLING AND INCREASING IN RADIAL EXTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREES. THUS,
YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
...

[Manukau heads obs]

I thought it was moving in a more S direction now...
the longer it does that...the potentialy closer it could come to NZ...

[Nev]

JTWC now have her much closer to Vanuatu as a Cat 5 and also closer to NZ…

WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 170.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
...
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 170.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER. A
092157Z MHS METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC WITH A DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS (T4.0) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 THEN THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RE-CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 17P IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72, TC 17P SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
TROUGH AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND SHOULD COMPLETE
ETT NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

[David]

Wow, they are expecting gusts to 160 knots at it's strongest... about 300 km/hr!

[Vertigo]

Thats a beast of a cyclone, and growing significantly stronger by the hour.

[Manukau heads obs]

basicly the longer it keeps on a southerly track before recurving, the closer its going to get to NZ

[Manukau heads obs]

latest GFS run has it a bit closer again...but then shooting off more SE at the last minute

[Nev]

Nadi still have her at Cat 2 this evening, but looking pretty well formed earlier...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 10/0801 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
170.6E AT 100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
…
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY
BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 WRAP WITH WHITE BAND YEILDS
DT=4.0, MET AND PAT AGREES. THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
…

[Manukau heads obs]

that threat map has it as Cat 4 very close to Vanuatu
and yet people yesterday were saying it was going to miss them...but only relying on a prediction...
i.e you cant take the predictions as certain...hence the cone of uncertainty
(and even the prediction of it moving south might not come true either)
i.e they are un predctable beasts ...they are look like spinning top , meandering around...

[DeanoA]

Capture.JPG

Metvuw really could be a little more thoughtful with the choice of ads that pop up on their site.
That's Vanuatu taking a direct hit from Pam in the model shown.

Stay safe all our friends in the tropics!

[Manukau heads obs]

couldnt sleep
JTWC has it moving more S for longer (it certainly has wobbled more SSW last few hours)
and so threat map is even closer to NZ ...

[Nev]

Wow! Huge difference in strength between JTWC and RSMC Nadi…

Even after adjusting 1 minute to 10 minute mean-winds, JTWC have Pam at at least Cat 5 by tomorrow night. And on Saturday night, still at Cat 4 when about 1000 km north of Cape Reinga, dropping to Cat 2 on Sunday night when only about 500 km NNE of East Cape…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 10/1348 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 972HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5S
170.3E AT 101200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 65 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE, ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT, WITHIN 150
NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT, WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW
QUADRANT, WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBD PATTERN, LLCC EMBD IN CMG, YEILDS DT=5.0, MET=
4.5,PT=4.5. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 11.2S 170.3E MOV S AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 12.1S 170.5E MOV S AT 04KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 13.4S 170.5E MOV S AT 06KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 15.1S 170.5E MOV S AT 07KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 102000 UTC.

WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
...
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 170.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 651 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TC 17P CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BECOME LARGER. A 101127Z TRMM SHOWS
THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A CONCEALED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LOCATION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WITH FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TC PAM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED FAR TO THE EAST. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND TAU 72, TC PAM WILL BEGIN TO BE
ENTRENCHED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL
IN NATURE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK CONTINUING IN A SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. AS SUCH, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

[Nev]

GFS have Pam even closer to us on Sunday…

TC Pam - GFS 12z run at Mar 15, 0000z.png

TC Pam - GFS 12z run at Mar 15, 0600z.png

TC Pam - GFS 12z run at Mar 15, 1200z.png

[David]

That's the sort of pass I'm hoping for, close enough to deliver some needed rain!